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2020 Oscar nominations and discussion

Nathan Treadway
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2020 Oscar nominations and discussion

#1

Post by Nathan Treadway » January 13th, 2020, 1:50 pm

Oscar nominees are out:
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Director
Martin Scorsese (Irishman)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (OUATIH)
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)

Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (OUATIH)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (Two Popes)

Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlet Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)

S. Actor
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (Two Popes)
Al Pacino (Irishman)
Joe Pesci (Irishman)
Brad Pitt (OUATIH)

S. Actress
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johannson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
OUATIH
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay
Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Two Popes

Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

International
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

Doc. Feature
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

Doc. Short
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Life Overtakes me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbor's Window
Saria
A Sister

Original Score
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars

Original Song
I Can't Throw You Away (Toy Story 4)
(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again (Rocketman)
I'm Standing With You (Breakthrough)
Into the Unknown (Frozen 2)
Stand Up (Harriet)

Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
OUATIH
Star Wars

Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
OUATIH

Production Design
Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
OUATIH
Parasite

Cinematography
Irishman
Joker
Lighthouse
1917
OUATIH

Makeup & Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent
1917

Costume
Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
OUATIH

Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite

Visual Effects
Avengers Endgame
Irishman
Lion King
1917
Star Wars
Last edited by Nathan Treadway on February 10th, 2020, 4:26 am, edited 23 times in total.

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#2

Post by OldAle1 » January 13th, 2020, 2:41 pm

Damn, missed seeing them live, first time in years. I thought they usually did them on Tuesdays, or have I lost a day...(not impossible in my current state)?

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#3

Post by GruesomeTwosome » January 13th, 2020, 2:44 pm

I would be surprised if something other than The Irishman or 1917 wins Best Picture.
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#4

Post by dirty_score » January 13th, 2020, 3:38 pm

Not my first choice but I think OUaTiH will win! Parasite for Best Foreign seems a lock.

I was concerned they were gonna lose their streak but Jojo Rabbit marks the 8th consecutive nomination for Toronto Film Festival. It's really time to stop overlooking this one.

3rd consecutive nomination for Venice and 3rd consecutive nomination in Best Foreign category for Cannes. Interesting.

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#5

Post by GruesomeTwosome » January 13th, 2020, 3:49 pm

dirty_score wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:38 pm
Not my first choice but I think OUaTiH will win!
True, I'll stick that one with The Irishman and 1917 as a fellow legitimate Best Picture contender.
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#6

Post by sol » January 13th, 2020, 3:50 pm

dirty_score wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:38 pm
Not my first choice but I think OUaTiH will win!
I think 1917 is in front without an Editing nomination since (like Birdman), the editing is pretty invisible.

I don't know if Parasite really has what it takes to be the first non-English language BP winner, but it's certainly a contender now. The Irishman should stand a chance too, though I don't know whether to believe the strong anti-Netflix bias that many said last year was responsible for Roma losing. Joker is definitely a contender too, though I don't know how divisive the film really is.

Should be an interesting next few weeks in any case. Let's see who wins the DGA and SAG Ensemble award. I wouldn't rule out Jojo Rabbit nabbing the top prize yet either should it triumph at the SAG awards.

At this stage, I would go with...

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v Ferrari

...in terms of likeliness to win, though I don't really see the last three as standing much chance.
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#7

Post by Obgeoff » January 13th, 2020, 3:56 pm

Greta Gerwig not getting a director nod would seem to rule Little Women out. It's the most deserving film out of the few that I have seen. Film Comment podcast made the point that it has been marketed terribly and not pushed by the studio for the awards season.
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#8

Post by sol » January 13th, 2020, 4:04 pm

Obgeoff wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:56 pm
Greta Gerwig not getting a director nod would seem to rule Little Women out.
Actually, looking at past performance, it is the lack of a Best Editing nomination that would seem to rule Little Women out.

Since 1981, three films have won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Including two in the last seven years.

Since 1981, only one film has won Best Picture without an Editing nomination.

The irony in that is that even without its editing nomination, I still think 1917 is the front-runner - because Birdman was the one exception to the rule.

But who knows? Everything is always up and down and I like the fact that this year's awards season has been less predictable that in other recent years with multiple likely contenders for the top prize.
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#9

Post by xianjiro » January 13th, 2020, 4:32 pm

Nathan Treadway wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 1:50 pm
Oscar nominees are out:
Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

International
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
never mind, answered elsewhere - and available here Nathan, do you or anyone put together a mega-list of all nominated films?
Last edited by xianjiro on January 14th, 2020, 3:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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#10

Post by albajos » January 13th, 2020, 4:37 pm

https://www.icheckmovies.com/lists/a+co ... sh_beauty/
The user is still active, so probably updated soon. (But close to hit the 5000-movie limit now)

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#11

Post by xianjiro » January 13th, 2020, 4:53 pm

albajos wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 4:37 pm
https://www.icheckmovies.com/lists/a+co ... sh_beauty/
The user is still active, so probably updated soon. (But close to hit the 5000-movie limit now)
Thanks! Yes, I've favorited that list. I know I've seen some annual lists as well. Maybe I'll try searching on 2019 and see what comes up - searching on Oscar or Academy Award will generate lots of irrelevant hits.

edit: blech! still over 150 hits

edit 2: found it 2020 Oscars: Nominated Films - knew someone would do this for us :thumbsup:

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#12

Post by brokenface » January 13th, 2020, 7:20 pm

xianjiro wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 4:53 pm
albajos wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 4:37 pm
https://www.icheckmovies.com/lists/a+co ... sh_beauty/
The user is still active, so probably updated soon. (But close to hit the 5000-movie limit now)
Thanks! Yes, I've favorited that list. I know I've seen some annual lists as well. Maybe I'll try searching on 2019 and see what comes up - searching on Oscar or Academy Award will generate lots of irrelevant hits.

edit: blech! still over 150 hits

edit 2: found it 2020 Oscars: Nominated Films - knew someone would do this for us :thumbsup:
Future ref, go to Lists -> Personal and sort by date added or last updated, quick way to find new lists added.

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#13

Post by xianjiro » January 13th, 2020, 7:22 pm

brokenface wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 7:20 pm
xianjiro wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 4:53 pm
albajos wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 4:37 pm
https://www.icheckmovies.com/lists/a+co ... sh_beauty/
The user is still active, so probably updated soon. (But close to hit the 5000-movie limit now)
Thanks! Yes, I've favorited that list. I know I've seen some annual lists as well. Maybe I'll try searching on 2019 and see what comes up - searching on Oscar or Academy Award will generate lots of irrelevant hits.

edit: blech! still over 150 hits

edit 2: found it 2020 Oscars: Nominated Films - knew someone would do this for us :thumbsup:
Future ref, go to Lists -> Personal and sort by date added or last updated, quick way to find new lists added.
great idea! thanks :thumbsup:

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#14

Post by Coryn » January 13th, 2020, 9:08 pm

Isn't there a page here to discuss the oscar nominations ?
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#15

Post by Nathan Treadway » January 13th, 2020, 9:36 pm

sol wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:50 pm
dirty_score wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:38 pm
Not my first choice but I think OUaTiH will win!
I think 1917 is in front without an Editing nomination since (like Birdman), the editing is pretty invisible.

I don't know if Parasite really has what it takes to be the first non-English language BP winner, but it's certainly a contender now. The Irishman should stand a chance too, though I don't know whether to believe the strong anti-Netflix bias that many said last year was responsible for Roma losing. Joker is definitely a contender too, though I don't know how divisive the film really is.

Should be an interesting next few weeks in any case. Let's see who wins the DGA and SAG Ensemble award. I wouldn't rule out Jojo Rabbit nabbing the top prize yet either should it triumph at the SAG awards.

At this stage, I would go with...

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v Ferrari

...in terms of likeliness to win, though I don't really see the last three as standing much chance.
I'd put OUTIH much higher. Probably frontrunner. It won Critics Choice and Globe, both of which have a strong correlation here lately.

Personally, I'm rooting for 1917.

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#16

Post by xianjiro » January 14th, 2020, 2:16 am

Coryn wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 9:08 pm
Isn't there a page here to discuss the oscar nominations ?
just did a quick search and found that some years someone started a new thread like 20XX Oscar Nominations or Oscar Nominations 20XX. One issue though is one year there were actually two threads for just that reason.

We do have one thread that might make a great general Oscar discussion place (year in, year out) Oscar Predictions or why not start another thread if that's the preference. IDK, seems like a new thread "The Oscars" would be easy and could be used for nominations, predictions, coverage of the award show, aftermath, #OscarsSoWhite, whatever AND could easily be used year after year.

edit: "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more." and we've been magically transported to the Land of Oscar
Last edited by xianjiro on January 14th, 2020, 3:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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#17

Post by PeacefulAnarchy » January 14th, 2020, 2:31 am

This is now the thread

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#18

Post by tommy_leazaq » January 14th, 2020, 4:00 am

The lack of Midsommar (Production Design), Lighthouse (Production Design, Acting, Score), The Farewell (Acting, Screenplay) noms made me wonder if films distributed by A24 didn't do enough campaigning or they couldn't care less. Because its tiring to see Irishman, Marriage Story, Joker, OUTIH everywhere when there are better alternatives available.

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#19

Post by sol » January 14th, 2020, 4:11 am

Nathan Treadway wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 9:36 pm
sol wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:50 pm
dirty_score wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:38 pm
Not my first choice but I think OUaTiH will win!
I think 1917 is in front without an Editing nomination since (like Birdman), the editing is pretty invisible.

...

At this stage, I would go with...

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v Ferrari
I'd put OUTIH much higher. Probably frontrunner. It won Critics Choice and Globe, both of which have a strong correlation here lately.
I don't see that happening. How much overlap is there between GG / CC and Academy voters? Is there any? I mean, I hear what you are saying, but it is hard for me to ignore the fact that only one film that wasn't loved by the Editing branch of the Academy has won Best Picture in the past 39 years.

I think SAG, DGA and PGA are more important Oscar precursors due to the overlap in voting members. Let's see how Once Upon performs with those guilds. Maybe it has indeed got it in it to set a precedent and be the first not-shot-in-one-take film to win Best Picture at Oscars since Ordinary People without an Editing nomination. It would be a surprise, but more surprising things have been known to happen...
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#20

Post by xianjiro » January 14th, 2020, 4:30 am

usually I don't even think about tracking down Oscar nominees until will after the performance - in years past, largely because they were still running at the theatre and not available through the library. But this Netflix monkey wrench sure changes things. Of the 53 films, I've already seen 7, 6 are also available on Netflix (though I've seen Marriage Story and Irishman), and I've got 13 or 14 on hold at the library - so that's a good start though the library items will take a while to arrive. But of course there are the shorts and foreign films which take so much longer to track down. Will have to check JustWatch to see if any of the missing titles are available on Kanopy or Hoopla.

Gosh, tracking down films is both easier and more complicated at the same time! 😅

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#21

Post by Nathan Treadway » January 14th, 2020, 4:42 am

xianjiro wrote:
January 14th, 2020, 4:30 am
usually I don't even think about tracking down Oscar nominees until will after the performance - in years past, largely because they were still running at the theatre and not available through the library. But this Netflix monkey wrench sure changes things. Of the 53 films, I've already seen 7, 6 are also available on Netflix (though I've seen Marriage Story and Irishman), and I've got 13 or 14 on hold at the library - so that's a good start though the library items will take a while to arrive. But of course there are the shorts and foreign films which take so much longer to track down. Will have to check JustWatch to see if any of the missing titles are available on Kanopy or Hoopla.

Gosh, tracking down films is both easier and more complicated at the same time! 😅
I have seen all but 8 of the nominated films (YAY chasing Oscar this year!). 5/8 are shorts. The shorts I've seen, I've posted links for, with the exception of 2. Learning to Skateboard you can see with Sling. Trial available. Kitbull is on Disney+, again trial available. So, check out my recent comments for a few more. ;)

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#22

Post by Nathan Treadway » January 14th, 2020, 4:56 am

sol wrote:
January 14th, 2020, 4:11 am
Nathan Treadway wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 9:36 pm
sol wrote:
January 13th, 2020, 3:50 pm
I think 1917 is in front without an Editing nomination since (like Birdman), the editing is pretty invisible.

...

At this stage, I would go with...

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v Ferrari
I'd put OUTIH much higher. Probably frontrunner. It won Critics Choice and Globe, both of which have a strong correlation here lately.
I don't see that happening. How much overlap is there between GG / CC and Academy voters? Is there any? I mean, I hear what you are saying, but it is hard for me to ignore the fact that only one film that wasn't loved by the Editing branch of the Academy has won Best Picture in the past 39 years.

I think SAG, DGA and PGA are more important Oscar precursors due to the overlap in voting members. Let's see how Once Upon performs with those guilds. Maybe it has indeed got it in it to set a precedent and be the first not-shot-in-one-take film to win Best Picture at Oscars since Ordinary People without an Editing nomination. It would be a surprise, but more surprising things have been known to happen...
Good points. I guess we'll have a better idea of the race this weekend, when the PGA's announce their winner. ;) Like I said, my heart is on 1917, which is my favorite out of the bunch this year, so, I'd be more than glad to see it win.

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#23

Post by Ivan0716 » January 14th, 2020, 5:35 am

Best visual effects winner:


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#24

Post by xianjiro » January 14th, 2020, 6:52 am

Nathan Treadway wrote:
January 14th, 2020, 4:42 am
xianjiro wrote:
January 14th, 2020, 4:30 am
usually I don't even think about tracking down Oscar nominees until will after the performance - in years past, largely because they were still running at the theatre and not available through the library. But this Netflix monkey wrench sure changes things. Of the 53 films, I've already seen 7, 6 are also available on Netflix (though I've seen Marriage Story and Irishman), and I've got 13 or 14 on hold at the library - so that's a good start though the library items will take a while to arrive. But of course there are the shorts and foreign films which take so much longer to track down. Will have to check JustWatch to see if any of the missing titles are available on Kanopy or Hoopla.

Gosh, tracking down films is both easier and more complicated at the same time! 😅
I have seen all but 8 of the nominated films (YAY chasing Oscar this year!). 5/8 are shorts. The shorts I've seen, I've posted links for, with the exception of 2. Learning to Skateboard you can see with Sling. Trial available. Kitbull is on Disney+, again trial available. So, check out my recent comments for a few more. ;)
will do, thanks!

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#25

Post by Reflect » January 14th, 2020, 9:41 pm

Joker and Jojo Rabbit are utter trash even by Academy standards, but despite that, overall this is pretty easily my favorite Best Picture lineup of the 2010s.

This is also going to be an interesting watch, as there're five films I could all actually see winning - 1917, Hollywood, The Irishman, Joker, and Parasite (though this last one is a stretch - we know how the Academy feels about anything not in the English language. Still, could see it happening).

Gerwig not getting in for Best Director in favor of Todd fucking Phillips is surprising - they'd have had a pretty much backlash-free lineup on their hands if they got a woman in there (her movie's even up for Best Picture, lmfao) - but I guess not that surprising. They clearly care so much about their image and ability to publicly pat themselves on the back, but they're so clueless.

Anyway, I'd rank the Best Picture nominees from favorite to least favorite like so:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. Marriage Story
7. Ford v. Ferrari
8. Joker
9. Jojo Rabbit


#1 is, still to my surprise given who directed it, a masterpiece and if it wins, it'll mark only the 4th time I actually agree with what the Academy decides is the Best Picture of the year.
Last edited by Reflect on February 6th, 2020, 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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#26

Post by xianjiro » January 14th, 2020, 9:47 pm

I'm not on Twitter, so forgive me if I'm behind the trend, but my prediction is an #OscarsSoMale campaign. BTW, BBC ran an article on this today - http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/202001 ... -directors

I'm curious to see Little Women but admit my first throught was "what? another one?" but that's nowhere as bad as the eyeroll another remake of The Addams Family got when I read about it just a little bit ago.

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#28

Post by brokenface » January 15th, 2020, 12:31 am

xianjiro wrote:
January 14th, 2020, 9:47 pm
I'm not on Twitter, so forgive me if I'm behind the trend, but my prediction is an #OscarsSoMale campaign. BTW, BBC ran an article on this today - http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/202001 ... -directors

I'm curious to see Little Women but admit my first throught was "what? another one?" but that's nowhere as bad as the eyeroll another remake of The Addams Family got when I read about it just a little bit ago.
There's definitely under-representation, but there's also definitely this slightly annoying tendency to make cherrypicked lists like that BBC article, which are rather ignore that you if you made a list of men who had similar cases but also didn't get nominated, it'd be 3 or 4 times as long, because that's the wider bias. Of the names they list:

Realistic Contender
Greta Gerwig, Little Women - in the mix but then so were Noah Baumbach, Taika Waititi and (less so) James Mangold who all also got Best Picture nomination but not Best Director.

Outside Bets
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
-I'd put these two as less likely than people like Pedro Almodovar, Fernando Meirelles, Rian Johnson whose films got nominated for writing, and similar chance to likes of Jay Roach, Clint Eastwood, Rupert Goold whose films got acting nods and little else. i.e. 2 women somewhere in middle of group of 8-10 who were outside the main running.

Very Outside Bets
Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Olivia Wilde, Booksmart
Mati Diop, Atlantics
-these were all films which might've been talked about a bit but didn't ultimately get momentum and these are mostly fairly new names. Chances of being in the 5 nominees extremely slim indeed. You could put these alongside the likes of Robert Eggers, Safdie Brothers, Trey Edward Shults, James Gray, Destin Daniel Cretton, Ari Aster. And there's also a group above this who would probably be more likely to have got in based on past pedigree although their films didn't get anywhere this year (people like Terrence Malick, Todd Haynes, Ang Lee, Steven Soderbergh, Mike Leigh)

Zero Chance
Joanna Hogg, The Souvenir
Claire Denis, High Life
Jennifer Kent, The Nightingale
Waad Al-Kateab, For Sama
Sacha Polak, Dirty God
-either much too little seen or just not types of films that ever got Oscar love. If you're getting down to this level you can list anyone whose film played a major festival


The bigger picture if only something like 10-20% of plausible nominees are women and that means 0 women on the final 5 is a reasonably likely outcome, especially when you add in the self-reinforcing bias that these figures would've been even worse 10, 20, 30 years ago and the favouritism shown towards established names & past nominees (the two 'new' nominees this time Todd Phillips & Bong Joon-ho have 20 years/10 films under their belts, the other three are all past winners and/or multiple nominees). Of the women listed above, only Claire Denis has got a particularly long filmography (and she's too far on the arty side of arthouse for Oscars) and only Greta Gerwig is a past nominee. It'll get better but it'll be slow.

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#29

Post by mightysparks » January 15th, 2020, 12:32 am

I don't care much about the Oscars, but usually around December I start trying to watch the most likely nominations just to try and stay hip with the kids, and you never know what might actually be worthwhile. I've seen all but 3 of the Best Pic nominations so far:

My preference:
1. Joker
2. Parasite
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Marriage Story
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
6. The Irishman

Ford v Ferrari
Little Women
1917

Joker is the only worthwhile one, imo. Out of the three I haven't seen, I expect I won't like Ford v Ferrari, I'm trying to read Little Women before seeing the film and based on the book I can't imagine the film being particularly great, and 1917 could either be a decent war film or just another crappy overly sentimental and pointless war film.
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#30

Post by Nathan Treadway » January 15th, 2020, 1:02 am

mightysparks wrote:
January 15th, 2020, 12:32 am
Joker is the only worthwhile one, imo. Out of the three I haven't seen, I expect I won't like Ford v Ferrari, I'm trying to read Little Women before seeing the film and based on the book I can't imagine the film being particularly great, and 1917 could either be a decent war film or just another crappy overly sentimental and pointless war film.
1917 is a road film disguised as a war film. The "battles" are few and far between, and are relatively brief. There's really not a whole lot of blowing up shit either.
Little Women is a well done costume drama. I'm not sure it really adds anything to any of the other million adaptations.

How I'd rank them:
1. 1917
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Irishman
5. Joker
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Parasite
9. OUATIH

But, that's probably my personal taste reflecting more than anything.

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#31

Post by xianjiro » January 15th, 2020, 1:20 am

brokenface wrote:
January 15th, 2020, 12:31 am
xianjiro wrote:
January 14th, 2020, 9:47 pm
I'm not on Twitter, so forgive me if I'm behind the trend, but my prediction is an #OscarsSoMale campaign. BTW, BBC ran an article on this today - http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/202001 ... -directors

I'm curious to see Little Women but admit my first throught was "what? another one?" but that's nowhere as bad as the eyeroll another remake of The Addams Family got when I read about it just a little bit ago.
There's definitely under-representation, but there's also definitely this slightly annoying tendency to make cherrypicked lists like that BBC article, which are rather ignore that you if you made a list of men who had similar cases but also didn't get nominated, it'd be 3 or 4 times as long, because that's the wider bias. Of the names they list:
SpoilerShow
Realistic Contender
Greta Gerwig, Little Women - in the mix but then so were Noah Baumbach, Taika Waititi and (less so) James Mangold who all also got Best Picture nomination but not Best Director.

Outside Bets
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
-I'd put these two as less likely than people like Pedro Almodovar, Fernando Meirelles, Rian Johnson whose films got nominated for writing, and similar chance to likes of Jay Roach, Clint Eastwood, Rupert Goold whose films got acting nods and little else. i.e. 2 women somewhere in middle of group of 8-10 who were outside the main running.

Very Outside Bets
Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Olivia Wilde, Booksmart
Mati Diop, Atlantics
-these were all films which might've been talked about a bit but didn't ultimately get momentum and these are mostly fairly new names. Chances of being in the 5 nominees extremely slim indeed. You could put these alongside the likes of Robert Eggers, Safdie Brothers, Trey Edward Shults, James Gray, Destin Daniel Cretton, Ari Aster. And there's also a group above this who would probably be more likely to have got in based on past pedigree although their films didn't get anywhere this year (people like Terrence Malick, Todd Haynes, Ang Lee, Steven Soderbergh, Mike Leigh)

Zero Chance
Joanna Hogg, The Souvenir
Claire Denis, High Life
Jennifer Kent, The Nightingale
Waad Al-Kateab, For Sama
Sacha Polak, Dirty God
-either much too little seen or just not types of films that ever got Oscar love. If you're getting down to this level you can list anyone whose film played a major festival


The bigger picture if only something like 10-20% of plausible nominees are women and that means 0 women on the final 5 is a reasonably likely outcome, especially when you add in the self-reinforcing bias that these figures would've been even worse 10, 20, 30 years ago and the favouritism shown towards established names & past nominees (the two 'new' nominees this time Todd Phillips & Bong Joon-ho have 20 years/10 films under their belts, the other three are all past winners and/or multiple nominees). Of the women listed above, only Claire Denis has got a particularly long filmography (and she's too far on the arty side of arthouse for Oscars) and only Greta Gerwig is a past nominee. It'll get better but it'll be slow.
After posting I went through the BBC list to track down the films I could - believe the only one mentioned I have seen is The Souvenir, so I am unable to comment on the validity of the assertion but do agree that the context makes it more difficult to say these are flat out snubs or even, and I use the term loosely, oversights. I often find films I think more deserving than this nominee or that winner but understand something of the process that leads to where we end up. It's one of the reason I don't really 'idolize' the Oscars (especially the pageantry), but I do watch the films because clearly these are films that have floated to the top for some reason.

However, my comment was more about the likely backlash we'll see, especially given the recent past and the fact that so much of Hollywood wants to appear like they get it and are getting it right. I see the BBC article as watching the sea retreat before a possible tidal wave. Ultimately, this is more a comment of the politics surrounding the Oscars and so very little about the deserving nature of the works themselves (since I've still many, many movies to watch).

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#32

Post by brokenface » January 15th, 2020, 8:14 am

Maybe tidal wave will come but the change has to come across the industry not just Oscars and not just the role of director. I've seen very similar backlash articles after almost every Cannes, Oscars list announced for the past 5+ years and it's not looking like changing quickly.

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#33

Post by Ivan0716 » January 15th, 2020, 1:41 pm

Nathan Treadway wrote:
January 15th, 2020, 1:02 am
Little Women is a well done costume drama. I'm not sure it really adds anything to any of the other million adaptations.
Yes, Florence Pugh.

My ranking:
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Little Women
4. Parasite
5. Marriage Story
6. Ford v Ferrari
7. Joker

Will be seeing 1917 in the coming weeks, but Jojo Rabbit is not something I would ever want to see.


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#35

Post by flavo5000 » January 15th, 2020, 2:34 pm

I think the problem is more with just the lack of women-directed/written films in Hollywood in general in comparison to men. Yes, it has gotten better but it's still incredibly lopsided. brokenface's breakdown is a very good illustration of the state of what the Oscars had to pick from (because let's be honest... yes, there may have been excellent indie films from women but the Oscars are kind of a popularity contest too). Having just seen High Life and The Nightingale for instance, there's no way in Hell either one of those is getting anywhere close to the Oscars regardless of who directed them. Now, the lack of a screenwriting nomination for Booksmart does seem like a pretty big omission since that movie has a clever script and received a lot of positive buzz over the year, I'd say even more than A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and The Farewell that brokenface called out.

I haven't seen Little Women yet so I can't speak to how well directed it is, but I will say I thought Joker was actively badly directed in places. So it getting a Best Directing nomination is akin to Bohemian Rhapsody's Best Editing debacle.

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#36

Post by flavo5000 » January 15th, 2020, 2:48 pm

Also can I just say that I'm delighted that Frozen II didn't get a Best Animated Feature nomination? It's always nice to see the Disney hype machine get shot down every now and then.

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#37

Post by Fergenaprido » January 15th, 2020, 3:25 pm

Agreed with brokenface's post.

Thanks for sharing that video albajos; I really enjoyed it and agree with her perspective.

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#38

Post by dirty_score » January 15th, 2020, 4:18 pm

flavo5000 wrote:
January 15th, 2020, 2:48 pm
Also can I just say that I'm delighted that Frozen II didn't get a Best Animated Feature nomination? It's always nice to see the Disney hype machine get shot down every now and then.
True, I think this year is well balanced. HTTYD3 or TS4 will win though, because, popularity.

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#39

Post by flavo5000 » January 15th, 2020, 4:24 pm

dirty_score wrote:
January 15th, 2020, 4:18 pm
flavo5000 wrote:
January 15th, 2020, 2:48 pm
Also can I just say that I'm delighted that Frozen II didn't get a Best Animated Feature nomination? It's always nice to see the Disney hype machine get shot down every now and then.
True, I think this year is well balanced. HTTYD3 or TS4 will win though, because, popularity.
I really doubt HTTYD3 would win. It's like the Boss Baby of this year. Basically Dreamworks just bought that nomination but that's as far as it'll go. I'd guess Toy Story 4 is pretty much a lock so Disney will still get their jollies but I mean, Missing Link did get a surprise win at the Golden Globes so who knows?

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#40

Post by GruesomeTwosome » January 15th, 2020, 4:36 pm

Give the prize to I Lost My Body! :thumbsup: (I know, never gonna happen...probably gonna be Toy Story 4)
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