iCM Forum World Cup - Season 3 - Round 1 schedule

[joachimt]

Average rank only will certainly simplify my spreadsheet.

Now I'm really off to bed. See you tomorrow.

[PeacefulAnarchy]

What's wrong with average rank?

Theoretically, that in my example above B wins even though A wins every head to head. Every way of counting such votes has a problem of this sort. For what we're doing here I think average rank is the fairest way, but since we've done head to head the last two cups people are primed to look at it as if each film has 3 head to head matches where the voters contribute to each match, rather than what is actually happening, which is each voter's ranking is really its own match.

So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A
The way we've seen it is:
A is 3W-0L Avg 2.42
B is 2W-1L Avg 1.52
C is 1W-2L Avg 2.52
D is 0W-3L Avg 3.52

but I'd say a more accurate representation is
A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52

[RogerTheMovieManiac88]

I'm fine with head-to-head scoring. I like Joachim's suggestion of 2 points for a win, 1 for a tie and 0 for a loss. That's how they do it in rugby league, which is my favourite sport. I suppose this competition could use soccer as a template and follow the 3, 1, 0 system. Either are cool with me.

[metaller]

Hm, instinctly I'd say go for the average rank. If it's draw go for whatever has more #1 ranks. Still a draw? Use the good old coin toss.

[Cynical Cinephile]

How does the scoring works actually? 4 films in a group, let's name them A, B, C and D respectively.

1. After I watch all 4 films, am I supposed to compare every film to each other? Like this:

A vs B - pick a winner
A vs C - pick a winner
A vs D - pick a winner
B vs C - pick a winner
B vs D - pick a winner
C vs D - pick a winner

2. Or are there predetermined pairs? Like this, for example:

A vs C - pick a winner
B vs D - pick a winner

This doesn't seem fair; it's possible that I end up liking 2 films from one pair more than 2 films from other pair.


3?Wouldn't it be easier if we simply ranked the four films by order of preference and score

4 points for #1
3 for #2
2 for #3
1 for #4?

Of course, I'm only talking about group phase.


Options 1. and 3. are fair, 2. would be a way bad of going about this.



Anyway, scoring system used in most sports should work for this as well...win 2 points, loss 1 point (let's forget about football for now). The winner is obviously the film that gets the most points. Here's my proposition for tie-breaking procedures:
1. head to head winner
2. most wins
3. average rating

So to answer your question, 2 wins and a loss are better than 1 win and 2 draws, in case that head to head, the two films are tied.

[PeacefulAnarchy]

We watch all 4 films and rank them 1,2,3,4 no ties allowed.

[maxwelldeux]

Just so I've actually said it (as opposed to thinking it really loudly), I also prefer having the two countries with the lowest average rank move on.

[Cynical Cinephile]

We watch all 4 films and rank them 1,2,3,4 no ties allowed.

Cool, so I guess Joachim would then assign the points (#1 gets 3 wins, #2 gets 2, #3 gets 1).

How does this "2 wins, 1 loss" vs "1 win, 2 draws" scenario occur? By aggregating votes from all users? I still don't get how draws come into play?

So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A

A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52

This is how I imagine the scoring should go if there are no draws; average rank. It's only logical.

[Mario Gaborović]

How does this "2 wins, 1 loss" vs "1 win, 2 draws" scenario occur?

Head-to-head records against other three opponents; 2 wins, 1 loss means more people voted for your film than for the other two, but the fourth one was more preferred by others than your film.

[Fergenaprido]

What's wrong with average rank?

Theoretically, that in my example above B wins even though A wins every head to head. Every way of counting such votes has a problem of this sort. For what we're doing here I think average rank is the fairest way, but since we've done head to head the last two cups people are primed to look at it as if each film has 3 head to head matches where the voters contribute to each match, rather than what is actually happening, which is each voter's ranking is really its own match.

So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A
The way we've seen it is:
A is 3W-0L Avg 2.42
B is 2W-1L Avg 1.52
C is 1W-2L Avg 2.52
D is 0W-3L Avg 3.52

but I'd say a more accurate representation is
A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52

To continue the soccer/football analogy (which is where we've been getting most of our inspiration for this cup). head-to-head (i.e. 3W-0L) would equate wins/losses/ties, while total votes (i.e. 30W-27L) would equate goals. Total vote scores should produce the same result as average rank, I think.

In this example, A is the winner for me, even if it's divisive.

How does the scoring works actually? 4 films in a group, let's name them A, B, C and D respectively.
3?Wouldn't it be easier if we simply ranked the four films by order of preference and score

4 points for #1
3 for #2
2 for #3
1 for #4?

Of course, I'm only talking about group phase.

Anyway, scoring system used in most sports should work for this as well...win 2 points, loss 1 point (let's forget about football for now). The winner is obviously the film that gets the most points. Here's my proposition for tie-breaking procedures:
1. head to head winner
2. most wins
3. average rating

So to answer your question, 2 wins and a loss are better than 1 win and 2 draws, in case that head to head, the two films are tied.

This points system also makes sense to me. Using PA's sample data from above, the points would be
A - 49
B - 66
C - 47
D - 28

which turns out to give the same results as average rank and votes... I should have seen that coming.

So now I'm not sure which method I prefer. I also need to think about it more.

[joachimt]

I've slept on it. I think the easiest, most fair way to do this is:

1. Average ranking (lowest two ranks proceed)
2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.
3. Still a tie? Most #1 votes.
4. .........
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

Should there be another tie-breaker on 4th place?

[maxwelldeux]

I've slept on it. I think the easiest, most fair way to do this is:

1. Average ranking (lowest two ranks proceed)
2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.
3. Still a tie? Most #1 votes.
4. .........
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

Should there be another tie-breaker on 4th place?

I like this.

Only #4 I could think of is "Fewest #4 votes."

[joachimt]

Only #4 I could think of is "Fewest #4 votes."

Mario might think of best vote difference, but I think that's too complicated.

[tommy_leazaq]

Waiting for Monty's country to be eliminated because of one of these tie-breaking conditions.

[sortile9io]

2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.

I think I remember how we solved ties between two or three countries in previous seasons. But if the tie involves all the four countries we're back to the situation of your initial post. I'm still not sure what we're doing in that case. Using the 3/1/0 score system? Proceed to step 3?

[joachimt]

2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.

I think I remember how we solved ties between two or three countries in previous seasons. But if the tie involves all the four countries we're back to the situation of your initial post. I'm still not sure what we're doing in that case. Using the 3/1/0 score system? Proceed to step 3?

That would only be a problem if it is a tie between more than two movies. I didn't consider that option, but of course it is possible.

If it's a tie between two movies, head-to-head as a tie-breaker works fine.

[joachimt]

What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.

1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.

[burneyfan]

Quietly pleased to note that burneyfan watched my nom a few hours ago and then promptly favorited it.

Pure coincidence, but a funny one! I only just saw this thread and the nominations.

[joachimt]

I updated the OP with the new rules.
We'll also use these rules in the second round.

[Gershwin]

What's wrong with average rank?

Theoretically, that in my example above B wins even though A wins every head to head. Every way of counting such votes has a problem of this sort. For what we're doing here I think average rank is the fairest way, but since we've done head to head the last two cups people are primed to look at it as if each film has 3 head to head matches where the voters contribute to each match, rather than what is actually happening, which is each voter's ranking is really its own match.

So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A
The way we've seen it is:
A is 3W-0L Avg 2.42
B is 2W-1L Avg 1.52
C is 1W-2L Avg 2.52
D is 0W-3L Avg 3.52

but I'd say a more accurate representation is
A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52

To continue the soccer/football analogy (which is where we've been getting most of our inspiration for this cup). head-to-head (i.e. 3W-0L) would equate wins/losses/ties, while total votes (i.e. 30W-27L) would equate goals. Total vote scores should produce the same result as average rank, I think.

In this example, A is the winner for me, even if it's divisive.

How does the scoring works actually? 4 films in a group, let's name them A, B, C and D respectively.
3?Wouldn't it be easier if we simply ranked the four films by order of preference and score

4 points for #1
3 for #2
2 for #3
1 for #4?

Of course, I'm only talking about group phase.

Anyway, scoring system used in most sports should work for this as well...win 2 points, loss 1 point (let's forget about football for now). The winner is obviously the film that gets the most points. Here's my proposition for tie-breaking procedures:
1. head to head winner
2. most wins
3. average rating

So to answer your question, 2 wins and a loss are better than 1 win and 2 draws, in case that head to head, the two films are tied.

This points system also makes sense to me. Using PA's sample data from above, the points would be
A - 49
B - 66
C - 47
D - 28

which turns out to give the same results as average rank and votes... I should have seen that coming.

So now I'm not sure which method I prefer. I also need to think about it more.

I'm afraid I'm late to the party, but isn't this the most plausible option? Looks ten times as simple to me. Which would be nice, because also non-beta guys could understand how the scoring works. ;)

[PeacefulAnarchy]

I'm not sure which option you're referring to, but average ranking, the point system and total votes are all the same thing. Which it seems is what we're going with.

[Gershwin]

Oh, then I misunderstood. So all the talk about wins and losses and average ranking (I didn't read it very thoroughly, just had a quick glance during work - mea culpa) is just in case of a tie, right? Fair enough. I thought you were calculating averages based on head-to-head matches. And I missed your post#126.

But please let's express the results in simple numbers like represented in the last part of the post I quoted, as far as possible. Makes it a much more pleasant read.

[PeacefulAnarchy]

This is what joachim settled on.

What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.

1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.

You're suggesting expressing the lowest average ranking as a sum of points instead? I'm ok either way, they're mathematically equivalent rankings. And yeah, the flow of this whole conversation has been a bit confusing, but it seems to have worked out ok.

[Gershwin]

This is what joachim settled on.

What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.

1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.

You're suggesting expressing the lowest average ranking as a sum of points instead? I'm ok either way, they're mathematically equivalent rankings. And yeah, the flow of this whole conversation has been a bit confusing, but it seems to have worked out ok.

Thanks. And yes, indeed, because it's much easier to read natural numbers than numbers with a fractional component, when only having a quick glance (like I just did in the thread, earlier tonight). Makes it more accessible for people who are bad at math, as well. And it's the most accessible when the winner simply gets the most points, so everyone gives 4 points to the film he likes most, etcetera.

I find the inverted order, where 1.32 for instance is a higher ranking than 3.24 because it represents the most #1 rankings, very confusing, because my instinct always tells me the winner has the most points.

Edit: and sorry if I'm not expressing myself very clearly. It's been half past two in the night, I just came home from work, and I should get to bed immediately - which I'm going to do right now.

[joachimt]

This is what joachim settled on.

What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.

1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.

You're suggesting expressing the lowest average ranking as a sum of points instead? I'm ok either way, they're mathematically equivalent rankings. And yeah, the flow of this whole conversation has been a bit confusing, but it seems to have worked out ok.

Average rank is easier to calculate, so that was my plan indeed, but I can do total points if non-betas prefer it.

[joachimt]

I find the inverted order, where 1.32 for instance is a higher ranking than 3.24 because it represents the most #1 rankings, very confusing, because my instinct always tells me the winner has the most points.

What if I present the score so far in the right order, something like this for example?

1. Country C (1.56)
2. Country A (2.12)
3. Country B (2.94)
4. Country D (3.25)

[mjf314]

One of the purposes of the head-to-head method was to not make people too afraid of picking divisive films, but whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is a matter of opinion.

In PeacefulAnarchy's example, it seems more fair to me if the winner is the film that wins all 4 head-to-heads, rather than the film with the best average rank.

I think most of the time both methods have the same winner, so it won't make a big difference. Does anyone have any examples from past seasons where the winner would have been different if we used average rank?

[joachimt]

I think most of the time both methods have the same winner, so it won't make a big difference. Does anyone have any examples from past seasons where the winner would have been different if we used average rank?

I could look for something, but it takes time to sort it out.
Off to work now......

[mjf314]

Another advantage of head-to-head is that it lessens the effect of downvoting (although I don't know how much downvoting happens in the world cup).

[PeacefulAnarchy]

One of the purposes of the head-to-head method was to not make people too afraid of picking divisive films, but whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is a matter of opinion.

In PeacefulAnarchy's example, it seems more fair to me if the winner is the film that wins all 4 head-to-heads, rather than the film with the best average rank.

I think most of the time both methods have the same winner, so it won't make a big difference. Does anyone have any examples from past seasons where the winner would have been different if we used average rank?

What annoys me about my example is that while it shows a "flaw" in using average rank it also shows how non-continuous head to head is. The divisive film becomes all or nothing. Average rank is fairer given how we're voting.

Examples:
3 A>B>C>D
3 A>C>B>D
3 B>C>D>A
4 C>B>D>A

A 0W-3L (18-21->2.61)
B 2W-1L (26-13->2)
C 3W-0L (27-12->1.92)
D 1W-2L (7-32->3.46)
Which is more representative not just of the ranking but the general feeling for the films?
Should A, the divisive film, come in behind D?

How about here?:
4 A>B>C>D
2 A>C>B>D
3 B>C>D>A
4 B>D>C>A

A 0W-3L (18-21->2.61)
B 3W-0L (31-8->1.62)
C 2W-1L (18-21->2.61)
D 1W-2L (11-28->3.15)
Should A be tied for second or dead last?

Another advantage of head-to-head is that it lessens the effect of downvoting (although I don't know how much downvoting happens in the world cup).

Depends on the circumstances, see above.

[PeacefulAnarchy]

In most cases the winner will be the same either way, but in close votes using average votes will show the closeness, so every vote has an impact, where as the head to head matchups create weird all or nothing breakpoints so only some votes have an impact.

[sebby]

Average vote all the way. Keep it simple.

[connordenney]

What about preferential voting like they do in the Oscars for Best Picture?

[PeacefulAnarchy]

What about preferential voting like they do in the Oscars for Best Picture?

You need to re-run it from the start for 2nd place (unless you want a film which is everyone's second choice but no one's first to come in last, though a close variation of this can still happen with the right vote split), and makes vote counting quite a bit more cumbersome. It's better in some ways and worse in others, I prefer it for actual elections where there are other factors in consideration, but I don't know that it's really worthwhile in this context.

[Lonewolf2003]

I’m a bit lost, so sorry if this already was dealt with. But how does these counting systems work when someone hasn’t seen all movies. Or does one have to see all in a match? I don’t remember if we had that rule last times.

[Armoreska]

I’m a bit lost, so sorry if this already was dealt with. But how does these counting systems work when someone hasn’t seen all movies. Or does one have to see all in a match? I don’t remember if we had that rule last times.

You mean the first rule of all?

Rules in the group phase:
- You must watch all 4 films of a match before you vote.

[Mario Gaborović]

I’m a bit lost, so sorry if this already was dealt with. But how does these counting systems work when someone hasn’t seen all movies. Or does one have to see all in a match? I don’t remember if we had that rule last times.

You mean the first rule of all?

Rules in the group phase:
- You must watch all 4 films of a match before you vote.

We always had that rule. Otherwise you can't vote.

[joachimt]

I just went through the 32 first round matches of season 1 and 2. Two of those were already decided by average rank, because they ended in a 3-way tie. Of the other 30 matches only 1 match would have had a different outcome if we had average rank as rule in that season.

So that's it. Average rank will be the first decisive factor. The rules are as I stated in the OP.

Btw, in case anyone is interested, this was the match that would have been decided otherwise:

Season 1, round 1C
India - Agraharathil Kazhuthai
Romania - Reconstituirea
Chile - La nana

Agraharathil Kazhuthain vs Reconstituirea 8-20
Agraharathil Kazhuthai vs La nana 12-16
Reconstituirea vs La nana 13-15

Chile won this match by winning both head-to-heads. But the average ranks were:
Agraharathil Kazhuthai: 2.29
Reconstituirea: 1.82
La nana: 1.89
So with average rank, Romania would have won.
...as it should have.

[joachimt]

This is an example of how the results will be presented:

Average ranking
Araya: 2.079
Court: 2.079
The Dark Knight: 2.711
Cabascabo: 3.132

Head to head
Court - Cabascabo: 29 - 9
Court - Araya: 20 - 18
Court - The Dark Knight: 24 - 14
Cabascabo - Araya: 8 - 30
Cabascabo - The Dark Knight: 16 - 22
Araya - The Dark Knight: 25 - 13

Number of #1-votes
Court: 15
Cabascabo: 1
Araya: 14
The Dark Knight: 8

Number of #4-votes
Court: 7
Cabascabo: 10
Araya: 7
The Dark Knight: 14

I won't post the tie-breakers if it's not necessary, btw.

[PeacefulAnarchy]

Average ranking
Araya: 2.079 (73-41)
Court: 2.079 (73-41)
The Dark Knight: 2.711 (49-65)
Cabascabo: 3.132 (33-81)

Would you consider presenting average rank like this?