Welcome to the ICM Forum. If you have an account but have trouble logging in, or have other questions, see THIS THREAD.
Podcast: Talking Images (Episode 16 released September 13th)
Polls: Romance (Results), 1951 (Results), 500<400 (Sep 23rd), 2008 (Oct 4th)
Challenges: Animation, Silent Era, Russia/USSR
Film of the Week: La religieuse, October nominations (Sep 25th)
World Cup S4: QF Schedule, Match QFC: Germany vs Italy (Oct 1st), Match QFD: Estonia vs Russia (Oct 11th)

Covid-19 quarantine zone (Not just a worldwide Flu!)

Post Reply

Got it?

Yeah, I got it and feel HORRIBLE.
0
No votes
Yes, I got it, but am doing okay.
1
2%
Yes, I had it but have recovered.
1
2%
I think I had it, but not sure.
5
8%
No, still waiting.
44
71%
No, I know I won't get it. Ever.
8
13%
What are we talking about? I live under a rock.
3
5%
 
Total votes: 62

User avatar
Onderhond
Posts: 4879
Joined: Dec 23, 2012
Contact:

Re: Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

#1241

Post by Onderhond » May 22nd, 2020, 4:18 pm

OldAle1 wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 4:04 pm
It's great how I don't need to read a word of what Cipp posts, and I still get my fill of the batshit crazy stuff he's trying to push on everybody. Hypocrisy of course is only one of the smallest sins of the Con(job) "movement" these days...
Dunno, the article he posted didn't seem too far out there. I rarely agree with him either, but if you don't read what he writes/links, it's probably better not to make such statements.
brokenface wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 4:06 pm
"All those who made decisions (right or wrong) on the basis of ignorance and good faith should not be subject to an inquest or criticism, which is not constructive. Any questioning and examination of events should take place very soon, not to castigate or score points but to learn the lessons and implement those changes that could see us more ready for any future similar challenges, be they six months or 100 years ahead."

And I'm not sure I agree with particularly the red.
It all depends if they mean "right now" (which I agree with) or "not at all" (which I don't agree with). Like you said though, the article itself is a bit wooly.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1242

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 4:37 pm

What I post is serious scientific opinion, it is once again the discredited policy that is praised that has been proved beyond doubt to be wrong. But now we neeD to move on And not blame anyone. We need to save the economy or we cannot have a good life.

User avatar
albajos
Posts: 6884
Joined: May 24, 2016
Location: Norway
Contact:

#1243

Post by albajos » May 22nd, 2020, 4:50 pm

9/10 dentists recommend a tooth paste. Always fun to team up with the last one. No tooth paste for me,

User avatar
OldAle1
Donator
Posts: 4848
Joined: Feb 09, 2017
Location: Dairyland, USA
Contact:

#1244

Post by OldAle1 » May 22nd, 2020, 4:51 pm

Onderhond wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 4:18 pm
OldAle1 wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 4:04 pm
It's great how I don't need to read a word of what Cipp posts, and I still get my fill of the batshit crazy stuff he's trying to push on everybody. Hypocrisy of course is only one of the smallest sins of the Con(job) "movement" these days...
Dunno, the article he posted didn't seem too far out there. I rarely agree with him either, but if you don't read what he writes/links, it's probably better not to make such statements.
You know what they say about a stopped clock being right twice a day - I'll grant that not every single thing he posts is an outright lie or blindingly stupid, just 90%. And I've just had enough of trolls and bad people in my time, I don't need it here. But yeah, done with that.

User avatar
Onderhond
Posts: 4879
Joined: Dec 23, 2012
Contact:

#1245

Post by Onderhond » May 22nd, 2020, 5:39 pm

OldAle1 wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 4:51 pm
You know what they say about a stopped clock being right twice a day
Exactly. If you blindly oppose the broken clock, you're going to be wrong twice a day yourself.

User avatar
3eyes
Donator
Posts: 7071
Joined: May 17, 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

#1246

Post by 3eyes » May 22nd, 2020, 9:29 pm

My husband had a bad fall early Monday and was in the hospital for 3 days. Now we have a night caregiver as well as a daytime one and are about to be deluged with masked nurses & physical therapists. Arrgh.
:run: STILL the Gaffer!

User avatar
GruesomeTwosome
Donator
Posts: 3105
Joined: Feb 03, 2017
Location: Industrial Wasteland, USA
Contact:

#1247

Post by GruesomeTwosome » May 22nd, 2020, 10:48 pm

I’m to remember every man I've seen fall into a plate of spaghetti???

My IMDB profile
ICM
Letterboxd

User avatar
RogerTheMovieManiac88
Posts: 1716
Joined: Feb 04, 2017
Location: Westmeath, Ireland
Contact:

#1248

Post by RogerTheMovieManiac88 » May 22nd, 2020, 11:12 pm

There are some horrible people out there. Those who cough on others at a time such as this are really contemptible. It's happened on occasion here in Ireland, where police have been coughed at and spat on. They've brought in short-term laws around the use of spit-hoods on detained individuals who resort to this sort of behaviour.

I do think that this video that Gruesome shared, as warped and worrying as many of the incidents are, does perhaps conflate grossly offensive and horrible behaviour (coughing or spitting in someone's face or direction) with a steadfast refusal to wear a mask/face-covering. The latter might be termed a ''freedom obsession'' but the former is most certainly not. It is just vile and intrusive and disgusting.

Not everone who cherishes freedoms and individual liberties plumbs those depths.
That's all, folks!

blocho
Donator
Posts: 3512
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#1249

Post by blocho » May 23rd, 2020, 12:04 am

Something makes me think the people in that video were already spitting on people and acting like maniacs before the pandemic.

3eyes, I hope your husband feels better soon.

User avatar
Knaldskalle
Moderator
Posts: 9934
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: New Mexico, Trumpistan
Contact:

#1250

Post by Knaldskalle » May 23rd, 2020, 1:22 am

3eyes wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 9:29 pm
My husband had a bad fall early Monday and was in the hospital for 3 days. Now we have a night caregiver as well as a daytime one and are about to be deluged with masked nurses & physical therapists. Arrgh.
Oh, I'm sorry, 3eyes. It's hard to practice social distancing when strangers keep invading your house, no matter how well-meaning.
ImageImageImageImage

Please don't hurt yourself, talk to someone.


Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1252

Post by Cippenham » May 23rd, 2020, 6:29 am

Another thing, imposing quarantine on visitors now and people travelling to the uk Now is 3 months too late and will do no good and only further wreck our economy. Why are these people so unintelligent? The only countries we still need to impose these on are visitors from a few countries still with current high rates of infections among general population. Also the idea some people can have immunity certificates and say go to the pub is ludicrous. Ronald Reagan said the most terrifying words are I am from the government and I am here to help but almost everything government does makes it worse.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1253

Post by Cippenham » May 23rd, 2020, 8:44 am

I managed to find that paper from Prof Gupta and others, I think it shows a lot more have already been infected but it’s a bit too scientific for me, it is from late March. It means the current antibody test estimates of how many have had the virus are wildly underestimated figures.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

User avatar
brokenface
Donator
Posts: 13645
Joined: Dec 29, 2011
Contact:

#1254

Post by brokenface » May 23rd, 2020, 10:04 am

Cippenham wrote:
May 23rd, 2020, 8:44 am
I managed to find that paper from Prof Gupta and others, I think it shows a lot more have already been infected but it’s a bit too scientific for me, it is from late March. It means the current antibody test estimates of how many have had the virus are wildly underestimated figures.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
The clue is in the title:

"Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for
large-scale serological surveys
to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic"

The large scale serological surveys that we needed are the antibody tests that are finally being done now on a reasonable scale. She was right that we need the tests. She did some modelling which predicted around 50% of population already had been exposed in March, but that simply is not backed up by the results of this antibody testing, which suggests there were some significant flaws in her model or the assumptions she put into it. You've got it back to front if you think the estimates based on actual tests should be doubted because they don't match the model. It's the model that should be doubted because it's not backed up by the real data.

User avatar
albajos
Posts: 6884
Joined: May 24, 2016
Location: Norway
Contact:

#1255

Post by albajos » May 23rd, 2020, 10:24 am

People that go around and cough and spit on other people are tested and fined here.

One that broke quarentine threee times are in jail. He was in his 20s.

So I really hope the enforce this in other countries too.

Provocative coughing creates fear and there are laws against that.
I was really annoyed when the american embassy in Oslo forgot a "bomb" after they have had had a rehearsal. The whole part of the city was locked down so the bomb squad could check it out. Stopping buses and trams and ordinary traffic etc

But did the city fine or go to legal action towards the embassy? Nope. What if this was an ordinary citizen doing the same thing? We had one case where one got 9 months for something similar.

But the point is creating fear in the overall public is illegal. It is almost by definition terrorism.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1256

Post by Cippenham » May 23rd, 2020, 12:03 pm

How reliable are predictions based on the antibody tests of how many people already had it , this is what needs checking.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1257

Post by Cippenham » May 23rd, 2020, 12:13 pm

She wasn’t saying 50 percent had it in March but that was a possibility in a range of estimates. She is now saying the cost of the lockdown was too high and that the government acted in the worst case scenario which was the now discredited imperial college model. On balance she thinks the cost of social distancing outweighs the benefits. Meantime the CDC in the US says the death rate for this disease is effectively 0.26 per cent which means we destroy the economy for this small risk overall. The figure is calculated from the data given on this report.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

blocho
Donator
Posts: 3512
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#1258

Post by blocho » May 23rd, 2020, 1:23 pm

Cippenham wrote:
May 23rd, 2020, 12:13 pm
Meantime the CDC in the US says the death rate for this disease is effectively 0.26 per cent which means we destroy the economy for this small risk overall. The figure is calculated from the data given on this report.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html
I didn't find any reference to a death rate of 0.26% in that link.

User avatar
joachimt
Donator
Posts: 32260
Joined: Feb 16, 2012
Location: Netherlands
Contact:

#1259

Post by joachimt » May 23rd, 2020, 4:14 pm

Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 4:37 pm
We need to save the economy or we cannot have a good life.
Depends on the definition of "good life". The economy of this world seriously needs to change. We need to stop consuming and traveling the world the way we've been doing.
ICM-profile
Fergenaprido: "I find your OCD to be adorable, J"

User avatar
PeacefulAnarchy
Moderator
Posts: 24842
Joined: May 08, 2011
Contact:

#1260

Post by PeacefulAnarchy » May 23rd, 2020, 4:27 pm

If those in charge actually cared about the economy and not just making a few extra bucks for themselves and their friends they would have closed borders and taken a break much earlier. Fake caring about the economy is what made them wait until it was too late and it's what's making them open too early. The kind of businesses that rely on opening right now (retail, restaurants, etc) mostly can't survive on 30% of normal client load anyway so you're not saving the economy by reopening, just prolonging the fear and uncertainty and of course increasing contagion, suffering and death.

User avatar
Pretentious Hipster
Donator
Posts: 20431
Joined: Oct 24, 2011
Contact:

#1261

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 23rd, 2020, 7:06 pm

Apparently the flea market is gonna open here too ever since places were slowly getting reopened a few days ago. And what do you know... tons of new cases are already happening. What a shocker.

User avatar
Knaldskalle
Moderator
Posts: 9934
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: New Mexico, Trumpistan
Contact:

#1262

Post by Knaldskalle » May 23rd, 2020, 7:32 pm

Pretentious Hipster wrote:
May 23rd, 2020, 7:06 pm
Apparently the flea market is gonna open here too ever since places were slowly getting reopened a few days ago. And what do you know... tons of new cases are already happening. What a shocker.
It's almost as if this virus spreads from person to person... :think:
ImageImageImageImage

Please don't hurt yourself, talk to someone.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1263

Post by Cippenham » May 23rd, 2020, 9:07 pm

blocho wrote:
May 23rd, 2020, 1:23 pm
Cippenham wrote:
May 23rd, 2020, 12:13 pm
Meantime the CDC in the US says the death rate for this disease is effectively 0.26 per cent which means we destroy the economy for this small risk overall. The figure is calculated from the data given on this report.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html
I didn't find any reference to a death rate of 0.26% in that link.
Correct. It is calculated as the average By a mathematician who looked at this from another website , it gives here instead the figures for each age group, under 49 being very low indeed. It indicates healthy people under 49 are under very low risk indeed, they may feel this is the last blow of the baby boomers who are already much better off than them.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1264

Post by Cippenham » May 23rd, 2020, 9:16 pm

To get to 0.26 , it states 35 percent infected are asymptomatic . The mean CFR is 0.4% From all the age groups.. So to get the IFR from the CFR multiply the remaining 65 % x 0.4 so 0.65 x 0.4 = 0.26%.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1265

Post by Cippenham » May 23rd, 2020, 9:18 pm

Yet I read and hear of people who are so afraid even if healthy they feel they never want to leave home again. The world has gone mad, apparently BP are allowing police officers to get free petroleum or gas as Americans call it,,,why. :o

User avatar
sebby
Posts: 6463
Joined: Jul 04, 2011
Contact:

#1266

Post by sebby » May 24th, 2020, 3:38 am

With literal once in a lifetime measures taken here, the number dead in the US is still likely 125-160k. All in about 3 months. That number would be who knows how much higher without these restrictions. We could be at a million dead in 3 months by doing nothing. And still going at that pace for a good while longer. That's just in the US. Open the country up completely and we're gonna be looking at 10k dead per day. Absolute destruction of the health care system. The bars and restaurants dying now would still die. Do you really not understand this, CIpp? Or do you simply have a need to be a contrarian, conspiracy theory thumping wannabe smartest-guy-in-the-room?

Your arguments, consistently, lack common sense. Your sources, consistently, lack in both number and legitimacy. Whether we're talking climate, politics, covid, everything. It would be lovely if you asked yourself why you turn to nonsensical fringe theories so easily.

blocho
Donator
Posts: 3512
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#1267

Post by blocho » May 24th, 2020, 4:03 am

OK, I get the math you're using. But I don't believe anyone, even the CDC, can calculate a fatality rate without knowing the number infected. I know six people in NYC who likely had the virus (including myself), and none of us were tested. Even death counts are unreliable (though more so than case counts). We're not blind statistically, but we're flying through heavy fog. The fatality rate could be 0.26% or 0.52% or 0.78%. I tend to think it's higher because we already have 26k dead in NYC, and not everyone has had the disease (0.26% would lead to less than 22,000 deaths in NYC if everyone got sick, which is clearly not the case yet).

I know this much: Without restrictions, this disease would pass through a population like shit through a goose. Consider how many corpses there would be with no restrictions and a fatality rate as low as 0.26%. Eight hundred and fifty thousand in the United States alone. Now think how many there would be if that fatality rate was a little higher. How many dead bodies are you willing to accept for a better economy? And have you considered that mass death also has negative economic consequences? Also, remember that even without government restrictions, an enormous quantity of people would stay at home and businesses would shutter voluntarily.

I'm really, really sympathetic to concerns about economic destruction. Economic recession has its own costs in misery and lost human lives. I think a balance can be found, and I think that's a balance some politicians are struggling to find. Ultimately, it's a balance that yields no gains and only pain. I don't know what other countries have done, but in the US there was one path that could have led to economic relief: Massive government spending, far beyond the relatively paltry two trillion dollars allocated by the federal government thus far. The US Congress (and I include both parties in this, though the GOP has been more recalcitrant) has utterly failed in this regard.

User avatar
sebby
Posts: 6463
Joined: Jul 04, 2011
Contact:

#1268

Post by sebby » May 24th, 2020, 4:31 am

We can mostly thank the GOP for not even doing the bare minimum here. Yeah yeah both parties are trash. But Reagan and his cronies set up the first set of major dominoes and the GOP has, over the last forty years, essentially engineered this country's current cataclysmic condition and future demise.

User avatar
mightysparks
Site Admin
Posts: 30885
Joined: May 05, 2011
Location: Perth, WA, Australia
Contact:

#1269

Post by mightysparks » May 24th, 2020, 4:49 am

I went for a walk yesterday and everything seemed back to normal around here. Restaurants have opened dine in but spacing people out. Benches around the harbour have a big notice in the middle telling people to stay 1.5m away (and act as a guide to sit on either side of it). There were lots of people at the beach and walking around too. Haven’t been to an actual shopping center in months but I’ll probably go next week coz I need new shoes - they’ve had holes in them since last year and of course now that I have money to buy new ones everything has been closed, but seems like everything’s up and running again. Most notices seem to have been taken down as well, usually just a few social distancing ones but they aren’t plastered in them. Pretty weird things still seem intense in other parts of the world and there’s almost no sign of any issues here.

Uni also sent out a notice about next semester saying that lectures will still be delivered online but tutorials will have a mix of online and face to face while still keeping social distancing measures. So I guess nobody can sit next to each other and they’ll still want us talking in groups lol.
"I do not always know what I want, but I do know what I don't want." - Stanley Kubrick

iCM | IMDb | LastFM | TSZDT

Image

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1270

Post by Cippenham » May 24th, 2020, 6:08 am

In New York, Sweden and the Uk they sent people back to care homes without testing they were negative. In NY, and Uk a third of deaths and in Sweden half of deaths happened that way. They did not do this in Germany or South Korea. The natural spread in Sweden otherwise does not show lockdowns to be effective, the disease declines naturally anyway. Alastair Haimes has some brilliant statistics on twitter and also quotes prof Michael Levitt of Stanford who actually believes more people have died and will die due to the lockdown than without, partly due to not getting cancer, stroke and heart disease treatment. Levitt is a Nobel prize winner btw. Better credentials than Ferguson who seems to have a record of getting predictions wrong . Yet our government follows Ferguson as if he is all knowing on this, I mean the discredited imperial model. Imperial are still getting it wrong apparently.


https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize- ... ponential/

Al in all another foul up by the baby boomers.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13359
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1271

Post by Cippenham » May 24th, 2020, 6:25 am

However once again I cannot know for sure the anti lockdown scientists are correct. I have followed the lockdown rules. They have a very good case but there are many who also believe the lockdown works. So I just like trying to work it out, you can prove or disprove a lot of things with stats as we know. But I am finding it hard to work out who has got this thing right.

But I do like Peter Hitchens and admire his attitude , we are now in an authoritarian state,



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -true.html

User avatar
RogerTheMovieManiac88
Posts: 1716
Joined: Feb 04, 2017
Location: Westmeath, Ireland
Contact:

#1272

Post by RogerTheMovieManiac88 » May 24th, 2020, 8:46 am

Thanks to Cipp and blocho and others for thoughtful and interesting points. I also am not quite sure about the efficacy and costs of lockdown, but I will say that I think many countries in the West have been shown up as unprepared and willing to slip towards authoritarianism as a blanket response.
That's all, folks!

User avatar
Onderhond
Posts: 4879
Joined: Dec 23, 2012
Contact:

#1273

Post by Onderhond » May 24th, 2020, 9:16 am

I read for Belgium the cost for every saved life is 1.3 million euro. If true (because the numbers still aren't anywhere near definite yet), that's a lot of money, especially considering the fact that it mostly hits old people. It's surely worth wondering if we would be willing the pay that cost in any other situation.

User avatar
sebby
Posts: 6463
Joined: Jul 04, 2011
Contact:

#1274

Post by sebby » May 24th, 2020, 10:37 am

You are way off about Sweden, Cipp. 4000 deaths for a country with a roughly 10 million population. Similarly sized countries like Denmark and Norway, doing stricter lockdowns, aren't anywhere near 1000. Sweden now has the highest per capita death rate in Europe last I checked. What's more, Sweden's economy has seen a similar decline compared to countries that are locking down. "The disease declines naturally anyway." What are you on about here? Sweden's confirmed case numbers are currently increasing daily at a rate of 5-10x its neighbors. Three months on, there is no decline going on despite more exposure, which seems to be what you're postulating.

Look at the countries where they have been able to contain -- Norway, Austria, Greece, NZ, etc -- and see what they did compared to countries where shit has gone off the rails. Pretty common theme of what works and what doesn't. Economically, a shutdown of a few months is greatly advantageous compared to an ongoing stop/start approach where there will inevitably be waves of sickness.

User avatar
albajos
Posts: 6884
Joined: May 24, 2016
Location: Norway
Contact:

#1275

Post by albajos » May 24th, 2020, 10:54 am

Yes, 2 million deaths in the US will not exactly help the economy

Also, with the late effects of the disease. With US health system it's basically a death sentence. People that survived the virus will not survive economically the chronic problems they would get. And without lockdown, an estimated 60% of the populaton would have it. It would break down the health system both with those with the virus, and those that need treatment for chronic after effects afterwards.

Several of the organs get attacked. Heart, lungs, kidney, memory loss. Quite essential.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52506669


User avatar
Lilarcor
Donator
Posts: 2994
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
Contact:

#1277

Post by Lilarcor » May 24th, 2020, 1:32 pm

Pretentious Hipster wrote:
May 24th, 2020, 12:31 pm
I don't doubt that park was crowded, but that picture looks odd to me. I'm no expert but looks like some hefty use of telephoto lens there to "crowd" people more together.

Also, daily reminder to ban Cipp.

User avatar
Pretentious Hipster
Donator
Posts: 20431
Joined: Oct 24, 2011
Contact:

#1278

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 24th, 2020, 1:42 pm

Fine, here's more that's not Canadian


User avatar
Lilarcor
Donator
Posts: 2994
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
Contact:

#1279

Post by Lilarcor » May 24th, 2020, 1:48 pm

Sad to see, for sure. I worry about the development of the pandemic. Some positive news on the development of a vaccine recently, but it's not like everyone would take the vaccine anyway even if it was free..

User avatar
Pretentious Hipster
Donator
Posts: 20431
Joined: Oct 24, 2011
Contact:

#1280

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 24th, 2020, 1:55 pm

I take the bus to work that goes through the "hipster downtown" here and I can confirm that it is fucking packed. Buses can be more empty for the most part, but since my bus goes through that section the bus has more people that even before the virus happened.

Part of me wants the inevitable dangerous second wave to happen for them to learn, but that would mean innocent people would die.

Post Reply