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Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

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Got it?

Yeah, I got it and feel HORRIBLE.
0
No votes
Yes, I got it, but am doing okay.
1
2%
Yes, I had it but have recovered.
1
2%
I think I had it, but not sure.
5
9%
No, still waiting.
39
70%
No, I know I won't get it. Ever.
7
13%
What are we talking about? I live under a rock.
3
5%
 
Total votes: 56

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Re: Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

#1201

Post by TraverseTown » May 18th, 2020, 2:15 pm

What are everyone's personal experiences with COVID-19 so far? I know a couple of people in this thread have had it or suspect they've had it. What about others in your life?

I am in New York so I feel like I have seen a lot of it. My best friend (29 yrs old) worked essential retail through the whole pandemic so far. In April she was out of work with extreme fatigue for 3 weeks. She couldn't get tested at the time because she did not have a cough or fever and never developed one, but her bloodwork came back without any other problems and she said she had the worst fatigue of her life.

My other friend's dad (early-50s) tested positive. He was working as a plumber and none of his other co-workers got sick so he probably got it in someone else's home. I definitely do not envy the workers who have to go into other people's homes during all this. We are having the air conditioning repaired next week at my house.

My other best friend moved away, but her whole family still lives in my town. Her mom (late-50s) works in a nursing home, one of the nursing homes in NYS that was required to take back residents who had been confirmed positive while they were staying in the hospital. Luckily they isolated the patients well so none of the other residents in the nursing home have caught it. My friend's mom worked in the COVID unit, so she caught it, then her whole family caught it from her (early 60s dad, and two kids in early 20s). They are all past the worst of it now and seem to be recovering. My friend's mom was coughing so hard that she experienced retinal detachment and the eye doctor sent her to the ER for urgent surgery to prevent her from going blind in one eye. She went to the ER and they refused to treat her because she had tested positive for COVID. She had to drive 2hrs to another medical center to get treatment, luckily the surgery was a success.

My parent's friend and her friend's boyfriend (early-60s) caught it because they were still going out instead of staying home. She said she was so sick she could barely sit up. They are fine now.

It's comforting to hear stories about people getting better, but I'm still highly anxious because I feel like it's still spreading so significantly in my area even though we're opening up soon.
Last edited by TraverseTown on May 18th, 2020, 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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#1202

Post by Knaldskalle » May 18th, 2020, 2:40 pm

I was on the phone with an acquaintance from New York a few weeks ago. Her cousin's fiance caught it and died the same day he was hospitalized and she knew a bunch of other people in New York who'd died from it. She was a little upset that she couldn't even go to the funerals, even while she acknowledged that it was dangerous to go. She's black and black people seem to be harder hit by it (whether that's genetics or social/medical reasons is not really clear to me). Fortunately she and her immediate family were all okay.
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#1203

Post by Armoreska » May 18th, 2020, 2:43 pm

Yesterday, the Americas apparently hit record new cases in a day, according to the graph on Wikipedia
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#1204

Post by albajos » May 18th, 2020, 2:55 pm

I think I've had it, and I still have chest pains. It's been 3 mnnths now.The first days, before it turned into a severe flu it was kind of like a heart attack. But now that the virus is gone, the pain is not as severe, but still saying "hello, I'm still here" from time to time.

I didn't and don't fear the virus itself, but I do fear that I can get chronic issues with my lungs because of it. We call them "senskader". Google Translate say that is "Late Effects", but maybe there is a proper medical term for it. Even if children don't die or geyt seriously ill of this, the virus could cause them serious problems after the dsiease is gone. I they keep finding more and more parts of the body that the virus have attacked in patients. Not only the lungs.

That is a problem with going with herd immunity as well. The amount of people that get "Late effects" are massive, and may need treatment for a long long time.

---

But other than me I only know of 2 that think they have had it. But they were not tested either.

But I don't really know people that go on vacations all the time, or go to bars every weekend. They don't live over-social lives :p
(most are stuck at home with small children, or introverts)

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#1205

Post by mightysparks » May 18th, 2020, 3:08 pm

Don’t know anyone who has had it and no one I know knows anyone, except my nan has an old friend in England in hospital with it now.
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#1206

Post by OldAle1 » May 18th, 2020, 4:39 pm


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#1207

Post by Lammetje » May 18th, 2020, 7:27 pm

I don't know anyone personally who has been tested positive. When compared to other European countries, Poland was relatively quick with taking measures against the spread of the virus. I believe a friend or an acquaintance of my mom's contracted the virus though, but that's in the Netherlands.
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#1208

Post by OldAle1 » May 18th, 2020, 7:58 pm

I think there's a small possibility that I had it in early March - early in the transmission period in the USA. My brother and I visited St. Louis at the end of February - they had their first reported case in early March - and I went up to Madison WI a couple of times the first week of March. Most of the early cases were people coming back from China and I was definitely exposed to lots of Chinese students in Madison, and several Chinese or Chinese-Americans in the hotel we stayed at in St. Louis. I definitely felt like I had a cold, felt sluggish and had some joint pain for a while in mid-March but of course I didn't go to a doctor (no health insurance!) and it was never really bad. My brother and his daughters both had colds or minor illnesses around the same time. I HOPE I did get exposed and was mostly asymptomatic, but of course I don't know and won't until testing becomes readily available which...god knows. And frankly the chances are pretty low that I actually was exposed, at that time.

Don't know anybody with it, but I don't really have any friends anymore, and I'm not close to my family unfortunately, well not close emotionally - my dad lives about 6-7 km from me as the crow flies but I haven't had contact with him since my mom died. He's 88 and has always been paranoid about health things anyway so I'm sure he stocked up with years' worth of stuff and probably hasn't left the house since February. The rest of my aunts and uncles and older cousins (ages 50-91) are all doing well as far as I know - I have an uncle who would inform me if it were otherwise. I worry about my brother because since he and his wife separated last August he has spent nearly 100% of his waking hours when not taking care of the kids on dating apps and having dates - and he hasn't changed that behavior the slightest since this started. I think he's had physical contact with at least 5 different women in the last 2 months, and two of them were non-Americans from a country where the disease is spreading faster than just about anywhere else, and one had apparently just gotten back to the US sometime in March. My brother is a case study in liberal science-deniers actually - he's been suspicious about whether global warming is all that serious, and he's a borderline anti-vaxxer - it's not all right-wingers like Cipp that don't want to believe doctors and experts. He basically keeps saying "we don't have that many cases here so I'm not going to worry", and he absolutely will never listen to anyone or change his behavior until forced to (he wears a mask now when required, but never otherwise) so I've given up. But I keep worrying.

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#1209

Post by albajos » May 18th, 2020, 8:37 pm

Well, if I had it I got at least a week before the first official case in Norway. But the problem was that they were looking for flights from China, and not thinking about people that came from Italy etc, that either had contact with chinese abroad, or that came indirectly from China themselves.

Several countries say that they think it already spread in their country in january. Not far reaching to say that it was the same here. The other one that think she got it also got it at the same time. Mid-february. But the flu saeson was at the same time, so people didn't think too much about it probably.

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#1210

Post by brokenface » May 18th, 2020, 10:08 pm

Trump announces he is taking hydroxychloroquine himself, seemingly as a covid prophylaxis, which is an even less proven usage than taking it as a covid treatment.

Taking his snake oil act into dangerous new territory.

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#1211

Post by albajos » May 18th, 2020, 11:58 pm

I don't think he actually takes it. He just has "friends" that produces it so he has to promote it.

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#1212

Post by blocho » May 19th, 2020, 4:24 am

albajos wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 11:58 pm
I don't think he actually takes it. He just has "friends" that produces it so he has to promote it.
Yeah, same here. I'm not sure the exact number, but I think between 60% and 80% of things Trump says are lies. The best bet is not to believe anything without irrefutable corroboration.

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#1213

Post by brokenface » May 19th, 2020, 6:46 am

blocho wrote:
May 19th, 2020, 4:24 am
albajos wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 11:58 pm
I don't think he actually takes it. He just has "friends" that produces it so he has to promote it.
Yeah, same here. I'm not sure the exact number, but I think between 60% and 80% of things Trump says are lies. The best bet is not to believe anything without irrefutable corroboration.
Sure but either way, the danger here is his cult members will copy what he says.

And just generally this is an attack on medical standards, on the idea that you should test medication for safety and only use them for purposes in which they have a proven effect. And that if you want to test a drug you do in a controlled trial with ethical standards. Not just blithely encourage people to just give it a go 'what do you have to lose?'

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#1214

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 19th, 2020, 9:58 am

People underestimate the power of 5g and what that does for the virus. It does this too

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#1216

Post by Kublai Khan » May 19th, 2020, 12:14 pm

https://amp.floridatoday.com/amp/5212398002

The Florida government is working to censor information so that their "let's open up" policies are more palatable.
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#1217

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 5:01 am

I do believe scientists and experts but only if they are making sense. I already posted views of a scientist who made sense abut this, unlike our imperial college who got it all wrong.

This is a statistical analysis that shows death rates, and compares to other years. It shows the lockdown is not effective and massively counter productive to the economy of course and to other health problems.
It even shows the lockdown could have increased the death rate in any countries. This is because it has led to the virus spreading between families in lockdown I believe.
The source lists many experts and scientists who agree the lockdown is not effective. That a lot of excessive deaths are due to people not seeking or getting medical help for other health problems. That the cure is worse than the disease.
http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

Prof Moynagh talks sense

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-n ... s-18190687

The Critic correspondent talks sense

https://thecritic.co.uk/were-all-in-the ... mbers-now/





What’s wrong with that?
Last edited by Cippenham on May 22nd, 2020, 5:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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#1218

Post by Kublai Khan » May 22nd, 2020, 5:29 am

Do you ever click on the "About" pages?

You aren't suspicious that the whole website, all the analysis, the graphs, the research, is all done by one single individual nameless "concerned citizen"? Someone who sprang out of nowhere with crafted information designed to make arguments to lift restrictions and put native Brits at risk?
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#1219

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 5:38 am

It quotes 10 different scientists and experts however so not based on views of one person.

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#1220

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 5:40 am

The virus is spreading only slowly here now and mainly only in hospitals and care homes. Why do 40 per cent of young people effectively ignore the lockdown now, because they know it is not now necessary.

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#1221

Post by Onderhond » May 22nd, 2020, 6:00 am

Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 5:01 am
I do believe scientists and experts but only if they are making sense.
It's a good thing science doesn't care about your beliefs of sense. What a weird thing to say.

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#1222

Post by joachimt » May 22nd, 2020, 7:27 am

Onderhond wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 6:00 am
Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 5:01 am
I do believe scientists and experts but only if they are making sense.
It's a good thing science doesn't care about your beliefs of sense. What a weird thing to say.
I wonder if he ever tried quantum physics. Doesn't make sense at all, but I think the scientists are right about this.
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#1223

Post by joachimt » May 22nd, 2020, 7:30 am

Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 5:01 am
It even shows the lockdown could have increased the death rate in any countries. This is because it has led to the virus spreading between families in lockdown I believe.
Talk about not making sense. :blink:
The families are together a lot anyway, so if someone in a family has it, the other will get it anyway, lockdown or not.
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#1224

Post by brokenface » May 22nd, 2020, 8:41 am

brokenface wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 2:34 pm
jal90 wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 12:22 pm
brokenface wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 11:54 am
Vaccine - there's some hope in the one developed by Jenner/Oxford Vaccine group, but we certainly can't assume it'll work, plenty of promising vaccines don't. I'm a subject on the Phase I myself so I am following quite closely :) Absolute best case scenario is some early positive results from the Phase I study and push through the bigger Phase II study as quick as possible this summer so you might be at a point later this year that you could be ethically justified in start deploying it wider in vulnerable population/healthcare workers (which'd be much faster than normal, but could be justified in circumstances - however that'd also depend on how quick they can scale up production). It certainly won't be ready for mass vaccination across population this summer.
I was surprised to know about that because the consensus everywhere is at least beyond 2020 to get a viable vaccine, let alone to have enough stock and to incorporate it to vaccine calendars. I certainly have my reservations not only on whether Jenner/Oxford Vaccine group will make it in the scheduled time, but on whether it would be plausible to have it available for mass vaccination any soon. Not just due to the necessary steps in safety and effectiveness, which at some point need to be tackled before this happens, but also on the logistics of its administration to the population.
Yeah, I have reservations too. I think government have latched onto this vaccine project as one of the few hopeful things we have in the UK response, so they are hyping it.

But there are some justifiable reasons to have hope in it - in terms of safety, they had a headstart as it's a modification of one that had already starting testing in humans for a similar coronavirus (MERS). That meant they were able to get to putting this one into humans a lot quicker than if starting from scratch. And there has been some results from the monkey studies which are promising as to efficacy, but that's very small numbers and obviously animal testing only goes so far, in terms of what you can learn about how it'll work in humans.

I don't know how close they are to starting Phase II, my understanding is that would include groups that are more likely to be exposed, i.e. frontline healthcare workers. Then you are more likely to get efficacy results as you can only really know if it works if you've got people being exposed. If they haven't started recruiting that yet, that's still weeks away from starting and then it's weeks-months after that before you could hope for meaningful results, but I would say Phase I was astonishingly quick, they sent out first email/press release for volunteers end of March, they'd fully recruited in Oxford and dosed all of them (500 people) I think by start of May, now they're doing a few other regions. I would think as long there hasn't been any safety issues, they'll be starting Phase II pretty soon.

Logistics will certainly be an issue. They've got a deal with AstraZeneca now for scaling up production and that's where you've got to have these collaborations with pharmaceuticals, they have the capacity, University can't do that part. And yes, then even if you're making enough, the logistics of distribution. I would guess the flu vaccine would be the model they'd roughly look to follow - so in the ideal scenario where they get positive results in the next few months, they could maybe deploy it this winter in the same population who normally gets flu vaccine each year? Big ask, lots of ifs..

Image

Above diagram was a ballpark best case scenario NY Times published. It seems fairly on schedule with where it is at the minute and by that it's hard to see anything coming through this year, but I do think that final approval might well be fast-tracked even more than that, given the circumstances.
Just as a follow on from this, they've now started recruiting* for the Phase II & III, which will be 10,000 patients. Positive sign - it doesn't say anything about whether it's working against Covid (would be too early to know that in either direction), but it does suggest there's no safety concerns from the Phase I and that they are seeing the immune response they expect in the early samples.

* https://www.covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/participate-trial

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#1225

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 9:10 am

Good news for many is that as a result of the virus Trump should lose in November when he would have won, if he does not lose considering the economy, it would be sensational.

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#1226

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 9:30 am

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubl ... interview/

This is an interesting scientific insight, not a concerned individual.

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#1227

Post by Onderhond » May 22nd, 2020, 9:43 am

I think the scientific takeaway from that article is that there is no scientific certainty whatsoever, but she has a theory based on experience. Which can be valuable of course, but the bottom line is that there is no way of being sure right now. Hence why if you search for the world "believe" in the article, you'll find 5 results.
Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 9:10 am
Good news for many is that as a result of the virus Trump should lose in November when he would have won, if he does not lose considering the economy, it would be sensational.
Imagine being responsible for Biden over Bernie because you thought you were being strategic :D

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#1228

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 10:02 am

Well wait and see what happens. The Oxford view is based on a model analysis Suggesting the virus already went through in the main.

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#1229

Post by weirdboy » May 22nd, 2020, 12:18 pm

The election will be fixed anyway. No sense worrying about who may win or lose.

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#1230

Post by brokenface » May 22nd, 2020, 1:14 pm

Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 9:30 am
https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubl ... interview/

This is an interesting scientific insight, not a concerned individual.
"Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%."

If the infection fatality rate was 1 in 10,000, that would mean that if the entirety of UK population (~67m) was infected you would expect 6,700 deaths. That doesn't add up.

We've got 36,000 deaths confirmed from a population of 67,000,000. That means even if every single person had got infected and there are no more deaths, the infection fatality rate in this country is approx 1 in 1861 people. That can't improve unless the death figures go down (i.e. if they are wrong). And that is at the absolutely absurd best case assumption that every single person has already been infected. If you go down to something more vaguely plausible like 10% have been infected, then infection death rate stands at 1 in 186.

That's very rough calculations, I could believe something like 1 in 1000 at the optimistic end, but how do you get to 1 in 10,000, it doesn't seem mathematically possible? Unless I am misunderstanding something about what this figure represents

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#1231

Post by Onderhond » May 22nd, 2020, 1:30 pm

brokenface wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 1:14 pm
That's very rough calculations, I could believe something like 1 in 1000 at the optimistic end, but how do you get to 1 in 10,000, it doesn't seem mathematically possible? Unless I am misunderstanding something about what this figure represents
I assume she may be talking about the situation right now (including current rate of immunity/people who have already caught it), but I have no idea if the math adds up then. At least the IFR should be lower now than when the epidemic hadn't hit us yet.

She doesn't sound too damning about the initial reaction, more concerned about the slow lockdown release?

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#1232

Post by weirdboy » May 22nd, 2020, 2:07 pm

That can't improve unless the death figures go down
Hey, let's not dismiss the possibility of a zombie apocalypse so easily.

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#1233

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 2:07 pm

The Oxford view is explained in more detail on their website.

As for the US election if it fixed who is doing the fixing I guess it will be the winner right?

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#1234

Post by brokenface » May 22nd, 2020, 2:21 pm

Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 2:07 pm
The Oxford view is explained in more detail on their website.
Link? Also this might be the view of one Oxford professor/her group, I very much doubt it represents majority view of scientists at Oxford.

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#1235

Post by brokenface » May 22nd, 2020, 2:28 pm

weirdboy wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 2:07 pm
That can't improve unless the death figures go down
Hey, let's not dismiss the possibility of a zombie apocalypse so easily.
:lol:

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#1236

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 3:39 pm

https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/

This is the Oxford website, it has many articles

This is where we are and what we should do now

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19- ... -the-maze/

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#1237

Post by Cippenham » May 22nd, 2020, 3:42 pm

Instead of pointing fingers and saying what we got wrong or right they give a practical solution but the media has caused many people to be afraid. The government closed the economy and put us under house arrest when the survival rate is 99.6 per cent but we should not be blaming them, they were scared of the NHS not being able to cope.

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#1238

Post by Kublai Khan » May 22nd, 2020, 3:55 pm

"We shouldn't point fingers, but it's the media's fault".
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#1239

Post by OldAle1 » May 22nd, 2020, 4:04 pm

It's great how I don't need to read a word of what Cipp posts, and I still get my fill of the batshit crazy stuff he's trying to push on everybody. Hypocrisy of course is only one of the smallest sins of the Con(job) "movement" these days...

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brokenface
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#1240

Post by brokenface » May 22nd, 2020, 4:06 pm

Cippenham wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 3:39 pm
https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/

This is the Oxford website, it has many articles

This is where we are and what we should do now

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19- ... -the-maze/
That site is not anything to do with Sunetra Gupta or her work, as far as I can see?

-

That's a pretty woolly piece, ambitions at the end are generally agreeable/laudable, but right now it's more about the nitty-gritty of making the right decisions about opening up at the right time and the practicalities of resuming normal life.

"All those who made decisions (right or wrong) on the basis of ignorance and good faith should not be subject to an inquest or criticism, which is not constructive. Any questioning and examination of events should take place very soon, not to castigate or score points but to learn the lessons and implement those changes that could see us more ready for any future similar challenges, be they six months or 100 years ahead."

And I'm not sure I agree with particularly the red. You might not know until you have an inquest whether people making decisions were acting out of ignorance or good faith. Maybe they are particularly angling towards protecting the scientists who've been advising government, which is reasonable, but I think there needs to be inquest/criticism of government actions. There shouldn't be a blanket assumption that decisions are made in good faith by people who have history of acting in bad faith.

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