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iCM Forum World Cup - Season 3 - Round 1 schedule

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#121

Post by joachimt »

Average rank only will certainly simplify my spreadsheet. :)

Now I'm really off to bed. See you tomorrow. :sleeping:
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#122

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

Mario Gaborović on Dec 19 2017, 04:21:01 PM wrote: :wacko: :wacko: :wacko: What's wrong with average rank?
Theoretically, that in my example above B wins even though A wins every head to head. Every way of counting such votes has a problem of this sort. For what we're doing here I think average rank is the fairest way, but since we've done head to head the last two cups people are primed to look at it as if each film has 3 head to head matches where the voters contribute to each match, rather than what is actually happening, which is each voter's ranking is really its own match.

So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A
The way we've seen it is:
A is 3W-0L Avg 2.42
B is 2W-1L Avg 1.52
C is 1W-2L Avg 2.52
D is 0W-3L Avg 3.52

but I'd say a more accurate representation is
A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52
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#123

Post by RogerTheMovieManiac88 »

I'm fine with head-to-head scoring. I like Joachim's suggestion of 2 points for a win, 1 for a tie and 0 for a loss. That's how they do it in rugby league, which is my favourite sport. I suppose this competition could use soccer as a template and follow the 3, 1, 0 system. Either are cool with me.
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#124

Post by metaller »

Hm, instinctly I'd say go for the average rank. If it's draw go for whatever has more #1 ranks. Still a draw? Use the good old coin toss.
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#125

Post by Cynical Cinephile »

How does the scoring works actually? 4 films in a group, let's name them A, B, C and D respectively.

1. After I watch all 4 films, am I supposed to compare every film to each other? Like this:

A vs B - pick a winner
A vs C - pick a winner
A vs D - pick a winner
B vs C - pick a winner
B vs D - pick a winner
C vs D - pick a winner

2. Or are there predetermined pairs? Like this, for example:

A vs C - pick a winner
B vs D - pick a winner

This doesn't seem fair; it's possible that I end up liking 2 films from one pair more than 2 films from other pair.


3?Wouldn't it be easier if we simply ranked the four films by order of preference and score

4 points for #1
3 for #2
2 for #3
1 for #4?

Of course, I'm only talking about group phase.


Options 1. and 3. are fair, 2. would be a way bad of going about this.



Anyway, scoring system used in most sports should work for this as well...win 2 points, loss 1 point (let's forget about football for now). The winner is obviously the film that gets the most points. Here's my proposition for tie-breaking procedures:
1. head to head winner
2. most wins
3. average rating

So to answer your question, 2 wins and a loss are better than 1 win and 2 draws, in case that head to head, the two films are tied.
Last edited by Cynical Cinephile on December 20th, 2017, 12:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#126

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

We watch all 4 films and rank them 1,2,3,4 no ties allowed.
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#127

Post by maxwelldeux »

Just so I've actually said it (as opposed to thinking it really loudly), I also prefer having the two countries with the lowest average rank move on. :)
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#128

Post by Cynical Cinephile »

PeacefulAnarchy on Dec 19 2017, 05:44:47 PM wrote:We watch all 4 films and rank them 1,2,3,4 no ties allowed.
Cool, so I guess Joachim would then assign the points (#1 gets 3 wins, #2 gets 2, #3 gets 1).

How does this "2 wins, 1 loss" vs "1 win, 2 draws" scenario occur? By aggregating votes from all users? I still don't get how draws come into play?
PeacefulAnarchy on wrote:So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A

A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52
This is how I imagine the scoring should go if there are no draws; average rank. It's only logical.
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#129

Post by Mario Gaborović »

Cynical Cinephile on Dec 19 2017, 06:01:13 PM wrote:How does this "2 wins, 1 loss" vs "1 win, 2 draws" scenario occur?
Head-to-head records against other three opponents; 2 wins, 1 loss means more people voted for your film than for the other two, but the fourth one was more preferred by others than your film.
Last edited by Mario Gaborović on December 20th, 2017, 1:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#130

Post by Fergenaprido »

PeacefulAnarchy on Dec 19 2017, 04:30:59 PM wrote:
Mario Gaborović on Dec 19 2017, 04:21:01 PM wrote: :wacko: :wacko: :wacko: What's wrong with average rank?
Theoretically, that in my example above B wins even though A wins every head to head. Every way of counting such votes has a problem of this sort. For what we're doing here I think average rank is the fairest way, but since we've done head to head the last two cups people are primed to look at it as if each film has 3 head to head matches where the voters contribute to each match, rather than what is actually happening, which is each voter's ranking is really its own match.

So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A
The way we've seen it is:
A is 3W-0L Avg 2.42
B is 2W-1L Avg 1.52
C is 1W-2L Avg 2.52
D is 0W-3L Avg 3.52

but I'd say a more accurate representation is
A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52
To continue the soccer/football analogy (which is where we've been getting most of our inspiration for this cup). head-to-head (i.e. 3W-0L) would equate wins/losses/ties, while total votes (i.e. 30W-27L) would equate goals. Total vote scores should produce the same result as average rank, I think.

In this example, A is the winner for me, even if it's divisive.
Cynical Cinephile on Dec 19 2017, 05:33:36 PM wrote:How does the scoring works actually? 4 films in a group, let's name them A, B, C and D respectively.
3?Wouldn't it be easier if we simply ranked the four films by order of preference and score

4 points for #1
3 for #2
2 for #3
1 for #4?

Of course, I'm only talking about group phase.

Anyway, scoring system used in most sports should work for this as well...win 2 points, loss 1 point (let's forget about football for now). The winner is obviously the film that gets the most points. Here's my proposition for tie-breaking procedures:
1. head to head winner
2. most wins
3. average rating

So to answer your question, 2 wins and a loss are better than 1 win and 2 draws, in case that head to head, the two films are tied.
This points system also makes sense to me. Using PA's sample data from above, the points would be
A - 49
B - 66
C - 47
D - 28

which turns out to give the same results as average rank and votes... I should have seen that coming.

So now I'm not sure which method I prefer. I also need to think about it more.
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#131

Post by joachimt »

I've slept on it. I think the easiest, most fair way to do this is:

1. Average ranking (lowest two ranks proceed)
2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.
3. Still a tie? Most #1 votes.
4. .........
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

Should there be another tie-breaker on 4th place?
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#132

Post by maxwelldeux »

joachimt on Dec 20 2017, 01:08:15 AM wrote:I've slept on it. I think the easiest, most fair way to do this is:

1. Average ranking (lowest two ranks proceed)
2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.
3. Still a tie? Most #1 votes.
4. .........
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.

Should there be another tie-breaker on 4th place?
I like this. :thumbsup:

Only #4 I could think of is "Fewest #4 votes."
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#133

Post by joachimt »

maxwelldeux on Dec 20 2017, 02:43:22 AM wrote:Only #4 I could think of is "Fewest #4 votes."
Mario might think of best vote difference, but I think that's too complicated.
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#134

Post by tommy_leazaq »

Waiting for Monty's country to be eliminated because of one of these tie-breaking conditions. :lol:
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#135

Post by sortile9io »

maxwelldeux on Dec 20 2017, 02:43:22 AM wrote:2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.
I think I remember how we solved ties between two or three countries in previous seasons. But if the tie involves all the four countries we're back to the situation of your initial post. I'm still not sure what we're doing in that case. Using the 3/1/0 score system? Proceed to step 3?
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#136

Post by joachimt »

sortile9io on Dec 20 2017, 09:58:19 AM wrote:
maxwelldeux on Dec 20 2017, 02:43:22 AM wrote:2. Ties will be broken head-to-head.
I think I remember how we solved ties between two or three countries in previous seasons. But if the tie involves all the four countries we're back to the situation of your initial post. I'm still not sure what we're doing in that case. Using the 3/1/0 score system? Proceed to step 3?
That would only be a problem if it is a tie between more than two movies. I didn't consider that option, but of course it is possible.

If it's a tie between two movies, head-to-head as a tie-breaker works fine.
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#137

Post by joachimt »

What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.
Rules on wrote:1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.
I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.
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#138

Post by burneyfan »

monty on Dec 17 2017, 07:29:45 AM wrote:Quietly pleased to note that burneyfan watched my nom a few hours ago and then promptly favorited it.
Pure coincidence, but a funny one! I only just saw this thread and the nominations.
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#139

Post by joachimt »

I updated the OP with the new rules.
We'll also use these rules in the second round.
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#140

Post by Gershwin »

Fergenaprido on Dec 19 2017, 11:38:07 PM wrote:
PeacefulAnarchy on Dec 19 2017, 04:30:59 PM wrote:
Mario Gaboroviæ on Dec 19 2017, 04:21:01 PM wrote: :wacko: :wacko: :wacko: What's wrong with average rank?
Theoretically, that in my example above B wins even though A wins every head to head. Every way of counting such votes has a problem of this sort. For what we're doing here I think average rank is the fairest way, but since we've done head to head the last two cups people are primed to look at it as if each film has 3 head to head matches where the voters contribute to each match, rather than what is actually happening, which is each voter's ranking is really its own match.

So for the example above
10 people vote A>B>C>D
9 people vote B>C>D>A
The way we've seen it is:
A is 3W-0L Avg 2.42
B is 2W-1L Avg 1.52
C is 1W-2L Avg 2.52
D is 0W-3L Avg 3.52

but I'd say a more accurate representation is
A is 30W-27L Avg 2.42
B is 47W-10L Avg 1.52
C is 28W-29L Avg 2.52
D is 9W-48L Avg 3.52
To continue the soccer/football analogy (which is where we've been getting most of our inspiration for this cup). head-to-head (i.e. 3W-0L) would equate wins/losses/ties, while total votes (i.e. 30W-27L) would equate goals. Total vote scores should produce the same result as average rank, I think.

In this example, A is the winner for me, even if it's divisive.
Cynical Cinephile on Dec 19 2017, 05:33:36 PM wrote:How does the scoring works actually? 4 films in a group, let's name them A, B, C and D respectively.
3?Wouldn't it be easier if we simply ranked the four films by order of preference and score

4 points for #1
3 for #2
2 for #3
1 for #4?

Of course, I'm only talking about group phase.

Anyway, scoring system used in most sports should work for this as well...win 2 points, loss 1 point (let's forget about football for now). The winner is obviously the film that gets the most points. Here's my proposition for tie-breaking procedures:
1. head to head winner
2. most wins
3. average rating

So to answer your question, 2 wins and a loss are better than 1 win and 2 draws, in case that head to head, the two films are tied.
This points system also makes sense to me. Using PA's sample data from above, the points would be
A - 49
B - 66
C - 47
D - 28

which turns out to give the same results as average rank and votes... I should have seen that coming.

So now I'm not sure which method I prefer. I also need to think about it more.
I'm afraid I'm late to the party, but isn't this the most plausible option? Looks ten times as simple to me. Which would be nice, because also non-beta guys could understand how the scoring works. ;)
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#141

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

I'm not sure which option you're referring to, but average ranking, the point system and total votes are all the same thing. Which it seems is what we're going with.
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#142

Post by Gershwin »

Oh, then I misunderstood. So all the talk about wins and losses and average ranking (I didn't read it very thoroughly, just had a quick glance during work - mea culpa) is just in case of a tie, right? Fair enough. I thought you were calculating averages based on head-to-head matches. And I missed your post#126.

But please let's express the results in simple numbers like represented in the last part of the post I quoted, as far as possible. Makes it a much more pleasant read. :)
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#143

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

This is what joachim settled on.
joachimt on Dec 20 2017, 01:01:50 PM wrote:What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.
Rules on wrote:1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.
I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.
You're suggesting expressing the lowest average ranking as a sum of points instead? I'm ok either way, they're mathematically equivalent rankings. And yeah, the flow of this whole conversation has been a bit confusing, but it seems to have worked out ok.
Last edited by PeacefulAnarchy on December 21st, 2017, 3:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#144

Post by Gershwin »

PeacefulAnarchy on Dec 20 2017, 08:13:44 PM wrote:This is what joachim settled on.
joachimt on Dec 20 2017, 01:01:50 PM wrote:What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.
Rules on wrote:1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.
I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.
You're suggesting expressing the lowest average ranking as a sum of points instead? I'm ok either way, they're mathematically equivalent rankings. And yeah, the flow of this whole conversation has been a bit confusing, but it seems to have worked out ok.
Thanks. And yes, indeed, because it's much easier to read natural numbers than numbers with a fractional component, when only having a quick glance (like I just did in the thread, earlier tonight). Makes it more accessible for people who are bad at math, as well. And it's the most accessible when the winner simply gets the most points, so everyone gives 4 points to the film he likes most, etcetera.

I find the inverted order, where 1.32 for instance is a higher ranking than 3.24 because it represents the most #1 rankings, very confusing, because my instinct always tells me the winner has the most points.

Edit: and sorry if I'm not expressing myself very clearly. It's been half past two in the night, I just came home from work, and I should get to bed immediately - which I'm going to do right now. :)
Last edited by Gershwin on December 21st, 2017, 3:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#145

Post by joachimt »

PeacefulAnarchy on Dec 20 2017, 08:13:44 PM wrote:This is what joachim settled on.
joachimt on Dec 20 2017, 01:01:50 PM wrote:What if we only use #2 for two-way-ties? Three-way-ties can get tricky very quickly. So let's try this.
Rules on wrote:1. Winner = lowest average ranking
2. Tie between two movies? Head-to-head decides.
3. Still a tie after #2 or tie between three or four movies? Most #1 votes wins.
4. Still a tie? Fewest #4 votes wins.
5. Still a tie? 3 day extension.
I think the chances we get a 3 day extension are very small.
You're suggesting expressing the lowest average ranking as a sum of points instead? I'm ok either way, they're mathematically equivalent rankings. And yeah, the flow of this whole conversation has been a bit confusing, but it seems to have worked out ok.
Average rank is easier to calculate, so that was my plan indeed, but I can do total points if non-betas prefer it.
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#146

Post by joachimt »

Gershwin on Dec 20 2017, 08:37:38 PM wrote:I find the inverted order, where 1.32 for instance is a higher ranking than 3.24 because it represents the most #1 rankings, very confusing, because my instinct always tells me the winner has the most points.
What if I present the score so far in the right order, something like this for example?

1. Country C (1.56)
2. Country A (2.12)
3. Country B (2.94)
4. Country D (3.25)
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#147

Post by mjf314 »

One of the purposes of the head-to-head method was to not make people too afraid of picking divisive films, but whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is a matter of opinion.

In PeacefulAnarchy's example, it seems more fair to me if the winner is the film that wins all 4 head-to-heads, rather than the film with the best average rank.

I think most of the time both methods have the same winner, so it won't make a big difference. Does anyone have any examples from past seasons where the winner would have been different if we used average rank?
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#148

Post by joachimt »

mjf314 on Dec 21 2017, 12:51:29 AM wrote:I think most of the time both methods have the same winner, so it won't make a big difference. Does anyone have any examples from past seasons where the winner would have been different if we used average rank?
I could look for something, but it takes time to sort it out.
Off to work now......
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#149

Post by mjf314 »

Another advantage of head-to-head is that it lessens the effect of downvoting (although I don't know how much downvoting happens in the world cup).
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#150

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

mjf314 on Dec 21 2017, 12:51:29 AM wrote:One of the purposes of the head-to-head method was to not make people too afraid of picking divisive films, but whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is a matter of opinion.

In PeacefulAnarchy's example, it seems more fair to me if the winner is the film that wins all 4 head-to-heads, rather than the film with the best average rank.

I think most of the time both methods have the same winner, so it won't make a big difference. Does anyone have any examples from past seasons where the winner would have been different if we used average rank?
What annoys me about my example is that while it shows a "flaw" in using average rank it also shows how non-continuous head to head is. The divisive film becomes all or nothing. Average rank is fairer given how we're voting.

Examples:
3 A>B>C>D
3 A>C>B>D
3 B>C>D>A
4 C>B>D>A

A 0W-3L (18-21->2.61)
B 2W-1L (26-13->2)
C 3W-0L (27-12->1.92)
D 1W-2L (7-32->3.46)
Which is more representative not just of the ranking but the general feeling for the films?
Should A, the divisive film, come in behind D?

How about here?:
4 A>B>C>D
2 A>C>B>D
3 B>C>D>A
4 B>D>C>A

A 0W-3L (18-21->2.61)
B 3W-0L (31-8->1.62)
C 2W-1L (18-21->2.61)
D 1W-2L (11-28->3.15)
Should A be tied for second or dead last?
mjf314 on Dec 21 2017, 01:00:14 AM wrote:Another advantage of head-to-head is that it lessens the effect of downvoting (although I don't know how much downvoting happens in the world cup).
Depends on the circumstances, see above.
Last edited by PeacefulAnarchy on December 21st, 2017, 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#151

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

In most cases the winner will be the same either way, but in close votes using average votes will show the closeness, so every vote has an impact, where as the head to head matchups create weird all or nothing breakpoints so only some votes have an impact.
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sebby
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#152

Post by sebby »

Average vote all the way. Keep it simple.
Last edited by sebby on December 21st, 2017, 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#153

Post by connordenney »

What about preferential voting like they do in the Oscars for Best Picture?
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PeacefulAnarchy
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#154

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

connordenney on Dec 21 2017, 03:11:42 AM wrote:What about preferential voting like they do in the Oscars for Best Picture?
You need to re-run it from the start for 2nd place (unless you want a film which is everyone's second choice but no one's first to come in last, though a close variation of this can still happen with the right vote split), and makes vote counting quite a bit more cumbersome. It's better in some ways and worse in others, I prefer it for actual elections where there are other factors in consideration, but I don't know that it's really worthwhile in this context.
Last edited by PeacefulAnarchy on December 21st, 2017, 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#155

Post by Lonewolf2003 »

I’m a bit lost, so sorry if this already was dealt with. But how does these counting systems work when someone hasn’t seen all movies. Or does one have to see all in a match? I don’t remember if we had that rule last times.
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#156

Post by Armoreska »

Lonewolf2003 on Dec 21 2017, 10:17:53 AM wrote:I’m a bit lost, so sorry if this already was dealt with. But how does these counting systems work when someone hasn’t seen all movies. Or does one have to see all in a match? I don’t remember if we had that rule last times.
You mean the first rule of all?
Rules in the group phase:
- You must watch all 4 films of a match before you vote.
he or A. or Armo or any

Image
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#157

Post by Mario Gaborović »

Armoreska on Dec 21 2017, 10:35:33 AM wrote:
Lonewolf2003 on Dec 21 2017, 10:17:53 AM wrote:I’m a bit lost, so sorry if this already was dealt with. But how does these counting systems work when someone hasn’t seen all movies. Or does one have to see all in a match? I don’t remember if we had that rule last times.
You mean the first rule of all?
Rules in the group phase:
- You must watch all 4 films of a match before you vote.
We always had that rule. Otherwise you can't vote.
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#158

Post by joachimt »

I just went through the 32 first round matches of season 1 and 2. Two of those were already decided by average rank, because they ended in a 3-way tie. Of the other 30 matches only 1 match would have had a different outcome if we had average rank as rule in that season.

So that's it. Average rank will be the first decisive factor. The rules are as I stated in the OP.

Btw, in case anyone is interested, this was the match that would have been decided otherwise:

Season 1, round 1C
India - Agraharathil Kazhuthai
Romania - Reconstituirea
Chile - La nana

Agraharathil Kazhuthain vs Reconstituirea 8-20
Agraharathil Kazhuthai vs La nana 12-16
Reconstituirea vs La nana 13-15

Chile won this match by winning both head-to-heads. But the average ranks were:
Agraharathil Kazhuthai: 2.29
Reconstituirea: 1.82
La nana: 1.89
So with average rank, Romania would have won.
...as it should have. :angry:
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#159

Post by joachimt »

This is an example of how the results will be presented:

Average ranking
ImageAraya: 2.079
ImageCourt: 2.079
ImageThe Dark Knight: 2.711
ImageCabascabo: 3.132

Head to head
ImageCourt - ImageCabascabo: 29 - 9
ImageCourt - ImageAraya: 20 - 18
ImageCourt - ImageThe Dark Knight: 24 - 14
ImageCabascabo - ImageAraya: 8 - 30
ImageCabascabo - ImageThe Dark Knight: 16 - 22
ImageAraya - ImageThe Dark Knight: 25 - 13

Number of #1-votes
ImageCourt: 15
ImageCabascabo: 1
ImageAraya: 14
ImageThe Dark Knight: 8

Number of #4-votes
ImageCourt: 7
ImageCabascabo: 10
ImageAraya: 7
ImageThe Dark Knight: 14

I won't post the tie-breakers if it's not necessary, btw.
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#160

Post by PeacefulAnarchy »

joachimt on Dec 22 2017, 07:16:01 AM wrote:Average ranking
ImageAraya: 2.079 (73-41)
ImageCourt: 2.079 (73-41)
ImageThe Dark Knight: 2.711 (49-65)
ImageCabascabo: 3.132 (33-81)
Would you consider presenting average rank like this?
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