Welcome to the ICM Forum. If you have an account but have trouble logging in, or have other questions, see THIS THREAD.
Polls: Favorite Movies (Results), 1945 (Results), 1929 awards (Apr 4th), South Asia (Apr 25th), Doubling the Canon (Ratings Apr 30th)
Challenges: Doubling the Canon, Nordic, 1950s
Film of the Week: The Music of Chance, May nominations (May 1st)
World Cup S4: Round 1 schedule, 1F: Brazil vs Greece vs Japan vs Poland (Apr 5th), 1G: Germany vs Pakistan vs Ukraine vs USA (Apr 22nd)

Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

Post Reply

Got it?

Yeah, I got it and feel HORRIBLE.
0
No votes
Yes, I got it, but am doing okay.
0
No votes
Yes, I had it but have recovered.
1
3%
I think I had it, but not sure.
2
7%
No, still waiting.
20
69%
No, I know I won't get it. Ever.
4
14%
What are we talking about? I live under a rock.
2
7%
 
Total votes: 29

User avatar
xianjiro
Donator
Posts: 7277
Joined: Jun 17, 2015
Location: Kakistani Left Coast
Contact:

Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

#1

Post by xianjiro » February 25th, 2020, 3:47 am

Not sure if it's been discussed elsewhere, but curious what people's thoughts are on this new flu going around, especially now that it's starting to make footholds outside of China. What's your take?
Last edited by xianjiro on April 1st, 2020, 8:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Listen, Daddy. Teacher says, 'every time a car alarm bleeps, into heaven a demon sneaks.'
sol can find me here

blocho
Donator
Posts: 2857
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#2

Post by blocho » February 25th, 2020, 3:56 am

xianjiro wrote:
February 25th, 2020, 3:47 am
Not sure if it's been discussed elsewhere, but curious what people's thoughts are on this new flu going around, especially now that it's starting to make footholds outside of China. What's your take?
I'm against.

User avatar
OldAle1
Donator
Posts: 4081
Joined: Feb 09, 2017
Location: Dairyland, USA
Contact:

#3

Post by OldAle1 » February 25th, 2020, 4:57 am

tastes great, less filling

User avatar
maxwelldeux
Donator
Posts: 7789
Joined: Jun 07, 2016
Location: Seattle-ish, WA, USA
Contact:

#4

Post by maxwelldeux » February 25th, 2020, 5:28 am

Personally, I'm against the Coronavirus.

My fun fact is that one of the first 5 cases in the US was about 10 min away from me, so I have that going for me, which is nice.

Otherwise, I'm an introverted loner who works from home and leaves the house maybe 2-3 times per week, on average, so I don't fear it much. The only exception is that I fly coast-to-coast ~2x/quarter, so the confined space on the airplane is a bit... icky. But I'm opposed to getting a cold or the regular flu, too, so I try to take the same general precautions. The insurance policy on me won't set my wife up for life, but it'll give her time to make decisions about how best to proceed. If I die, not my problem. :shrug:

User avatar
fori
Posts: 1302
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
Contact:

#5

Post by fori » February 25th, 2020, 5:46 am

My wife’s family and friends are horrified, they’ve been trapped in their homes for over a month. Grocery prices have skyrocketed in Sydney for all the products from China that we eat on a weekly basis (and veggie prices have skyrocketed from the bushfires so it’s basically across the board for us). We’ve had to indefinitely postpone our next trip back too. Some extremely depressing things related to this situation have happened to friends and family of ours as well. On a micro level this has been a very bad year for us so far, and in macro terms we’ve been hit by the same issues afflicting many other Australian-Chinese families.
On another note, one thing that might not get enough coverage is that this has been extremely damaging to the Chinese government. This is probably biggest (in terms of circulation) negative news story relating to the Chinese government in living memory for a huge chunk of the population, and really, it’s not even close.

User avatar
Knaldskalle
Moderator
Posts: 9701
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: New Mexico, Trumpistan
Contact:

#6

Post by Knaldskalle » February 25th, 2020, 5:56 am

Not a fan.
ImageImageImageImage

Please don't hurt yourself, talk to someone.

User avatar
mightysparks
Site Admin
Posts: 30240
Joined: May 05, 2011
Location: Perth, WA, Australia
Contact:

#7

Post by mightysparks » February 25th, 2020, 6:31 am

Has had zero effect on me, though doesn’t sound too good. I hadn’t even heard of it until last week and there was a notice sent out saying that some uni students are stuck in China whilst the travel ban was in effect.

But I remember a lot of stuff about the bird and swine flu and nothing ever happened with those so I don’t pay much attention to these things.
"I do not always know what I want, but I do know what I don't want." - Stanley Kubrick

iCM | IMDb | LastFM | TSZDT

Image

User avatar
xianjiro
Donator
Posts: 7277
Joined: Jun 17, 2015
Location: Kakistani Left Coast
Contact:

#8

Post by xianjiro » February 25th, 2020, 7:11 am

So, any strong feelings about how well the quarantine(s) are working?

I was surprised to see today that my state, while not having a recorded case, is testing and tracking people.

Listen, Daddy. Teacher says, 'every time a car alarm bleeps, into heaven a demon sneaks.'
sol can find me here

User avatar
xianjiro
Donator
Posts: 7277
Joined: Jun 17, 2015
Location: Kakistani Left Coast
Contact:

#9

Post by xianjiro » February 25th, 2020, 7:20 am

fori wrote:
February 25th, 2020, 5:46 am
My wife’s family and friends are horrified, they’ve been trapped in their homes for over a month. Grocery prices have skyrocketed in Sydney for all the products from China that we eat on a weekly basis (and veggie prices have skyrocketed from the bushfires so it’s basically across the board for us). We’ve had to indefinitely postpone our next trip back too. Some extremely depressing things related to this situation have happened to friends and family of ours as well. On a micro level this has been a very bad year for us so far, and in macro terms we’ve been hit by the same issues afflicting many other Australian-Chinese families.
On another note, one thing that might not get enough coverage is that this has been extremely damaging to the Chinese government. This is probably biggest (in terms of circulation) negative news story relating to the Chinese government in living memory for a huge chunk of the population, and really, it’s not even close.
Sorry to hear about the difficult start to the decade for you @fori. The personal perspective is much more illuminating than so much of the scare-mongering in the media (and I hear tell of on social media).

Remember a few years back when we got hit by some really difficult winter weather - something like snow, then rain, then freezing rain, then more snow then a brief thaw, then a hard freeze - think there might have been a rash of zombies and vampire cats, too. The strange thing was about about four days in, everyone was complaining about cabin fever even though they could go out, they just didn't have to since so much closed down.

I'm not looking forward to what will happen if people are forced to stay home en masse for a couple of weeks. :o

Listen, Daddy. Teacher says, 'every time a car alarm bleeps, into heaven a demon sneaks.'
sol can find me here

User avatar
peeptoad
Posts: 1788
Joined: Feb 04, 2017
Contact:

#10

Post by peeptoad » February 25th, 2020, 11:39 am

We've been discussing this at my job periodically and at least one research group wants to bring COVID19 onto campus to work with it, but thankfully the microbiological committee put a stall on that one.

What makes this virus concerning is the speed of transmission,  but it still has a far lower mortality rate than the flu and the symptoms in most people diagnosed are on the milder side, compared to similar type viruses.

It’s uptake is  via the ace2 receptor, which has more prominent expression in the lung fields  of certain Asian ethnic groups.  That may be why it started where it did...
Children and infants also have been largely unaffected and there have been no deaths in children.  ace2 is underdeveloped in that age group, hence lower infection rates.

As per usual the vast majority of deaths have occurred in the elderly and in people with lowered immunity or concurrent health problems. 

The incubation period is still under debate,  hasn't been determined ultimately yet abd the cases have been declining since early Feb anyway.

Those are the basic facts that I know.since this overlaps with my career field.  IMO the recent measles outbreaks in parts of the US are more concerning,  but the unknown is always a potential threat, of course.  all subject to change of course with ongoing research.

blocho
Donator
Posts: 2857
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#11

Post by blocho » February 25th, 2020, 1:11 pm

mightysparks wrote:
February 25th, 2020, 6:31 am
But I remember a lot of stuff about the bird and swine flu and nothing ever happened with those so I don’t pay much attention to these things.
Well, something did happen. Hundreds of thousands of people died.

My facetious response in the second post aside, obviously this disease has led to awful tragedy.

User avatar
albajos
Posts: 6820
Joined: May 24, 2016
Location: Norway
Contact:

#12

Post by albajos » February 25th, 2020, 1:15 pm

SAD, we need to build a wall to keep it out of Norway

(we still don't have any here, even if Sweden and Finland have had theirs a long time ago. Maybe the cold weather is a good thing, we just don't see much of others)

User avatar
fori
Posts: 1302
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
Contact:

#13

Post by fori » February 25th, 2020, 1:50 pm

Thanks Xianjiro. I should also point out that Sydney is fortunately largely safe from the disease aside from a small number of cases. The biggest repercussion here for many is a surge in racism against the very large East Asian community here. I hope Cinewest can share his perspective in this thread, though I hear Beijing has had comparatively fewer cases.

User avatar
xianjiro
Donator
Posts: 7277
Joined: Jun 17, 2015
Location: Kakistani Left Coast
Contact:

#14

Post by xianjiro » February 25th, 2020, 5:40 pm

Well, conventional wisdom suggests that virii are less likely to spread in warmer weather, so not sure Sydney is going to be spared - it just might take a few more months (and winter).

This seems especially worrisome to me as both Africa and Latin American have largely avoided the illness, but then there is our favorite pariah nation - Iran - grabbing headlines. As soon as I started reading about the outbreak in Qom yesterday that's when I got really concerned. The Iranian medical system is in poor health to begin with, the government's only response to anything seems to be denial until the facts on the ground prove too overwhelming, and there are multiple reasons why they don't want to adopt quarantines to slow (stop?) the spread. Won't be at all surprising to see those numbers explode. And even with closed borders and curtailed air traffic, the likelihood that the infection has already spread throughout the Shia world is looking quite probable.

Even the spread of cases in Europe - mostly traced back to Italy - show how hard it is to contain and if we've learned anything from disaster cinema, it's that panicked people will do positively anything to escape (and take their freeloading virii along for the ride).

Listen, Daddy. Teacher says, 'every time a car alarm bleeps, into heaven a demon sneaks.'
sol can find me here

User avatar
peeptoad
Posts: 1788
Joined: Feb 04, 2017
Contact:

#15

Post by peeptoad » February 25th, 2020, 6:23 pm

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/25/ ... us-effort/
Harvard scientists to collaborate with those in China on $115 million coronavirus effort

morrison-dylan-fan
Posts: 1116
Joined: Feb 06, 2017
Contact:

#16

Post by morrison-dylan-fan » February 26th, 2020, 2:39 am

fori wrote:
February 25th, 2020, 5:46 am
My wife’s family and friends are horrified, they’ve been trapped in their homes for over a month. Grocery prices have skyrocketed in Sydney for all the products from China that we eat on a weekly basis (and veggie prices have skyrocketed from the bushfires so it’s basically across the board for us). We’ve had to indefinitely postpone our next trip back too. Some extremely depressing things related to this situation have happened to friends and family of ours as well. On a micro level this has been a very bad year for us so far, and in macro terms we’ve been hit by the same issues afflicting many other Australian-Chinese families.
On another note, one thing that might not get enough coverage is that this has been extremely damaging to the Chinese government. This is probably biggest (in terms of circulation) negative news story relating to the Chinese government in living memory for a huge chunk of the population, and really, it’s not even close.

Hi fori,I'm sorry to hear about how bad 2020 has been for you,and I really hope it improves soon for you,and your family/friends.

On you saying that this is the most negative news people have seen of the CCP for a huge number of the locals, with protests having continued in HK,and the Beijing-backed candidate recently losing in the Taiwan presidential election, is there chance for some change (even at local level) on the mainland?

Thanks.

User avatar
fori
Posts: 1302
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
Contact:

#17

Post by fori » February 26th, 2020, 3:07 am

Thanks Morrison-Dylan-fan.
As for change in China, there has already been a bit in response to all this. The leader of Hubei province has already been fired (which is a big deal), and there have been a few other sackings. Hard to say more broadly though, and I’m no expert either. This is the start of something, but I’m not sure what that something will be. I would also point out that although they are problems for the CCP, the two other things you point to don’t have the same kind of resonance in China. Most people in China disagree with the stance taken by HK protesters (and it’s easy to see why), while the Taiwan election doesn’t seem to be big news to many people there.

blocho
Donator
Posts: 2857
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#18

Post by blocho » February 26th, 2020, 5:21 pm

From what I've read, the chances of limiting this virus are over. Whatever opportunity existed to encircle it passed some time ago. It will go worldwide. Deaths in the millions seem possible if not likely.

morrison-dylan-fan
Posts: 1116
Joined: Feb 06, 2017
Contact:

#19

Post by morrison-dylan-fan » February 26th, 2020, 7:45 pm

blocho wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 5:21 pm
From what I've read, the chances of limiting this virus are over. Whatever opportunity existed to encircle it passed some time ago. It will go worldwide. Deaths in the millions seem possible if not likely.
Yeah, there is no good way to say this, I think we are looking at the start of a utter disaster.

User avatar
3eyes
Donator
Posts: 6945
Joined: May 17, 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

#20

Post by 3eyes » February 26th, 2020, 8:07 pm

Fori, I'm sorry to hear this but appreciative of your take on the situation in China. Peeptoad, thanks for the scientific perspective.

a Japanese friend was insulted on the street recently. She realized it was about cv19 and inspired by fear, not hate.

For those who are not into disaster flicks, Daniel Defoe's Journal of the Plague Year (actually a novel) is a great read if you're looking for historical relevance, as I discovered during the AIDS crisis.
:run: STILL the Gaffer!

morrison-dylan-fan
Posts: 1116
Joined: Feb 06, 2017
Contact:

#21

Post by morrison-dylan-fan » February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm

Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.

User avatar
3eyes
Donator
Posts: 6945
Joined: May 17, 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

#22

Post by 3eyes » February 26th, 2020, 8:54 pm

morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm
Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.
A useful reminder to those of us whose kids might be terrified for us. I don't know where you are, mdf. Of course your recent losses makes this a trigger for anxiety about your dad - have you reason to think he's especially vulnerable apart from his age?
:run: STILL the Gaffer!

User avatar
fori
Posts: 1302
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
Contact:

#23

Post by fori » February 26th, 2020, 8:56 pm

morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm
Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.
Don’t apologise for that! I hope you and your dad are safe from the virus. There are precautions you can take, I suggest you look up medical information online. Keep tabs on recorded cases in your area. All the best.

morrison-dylan-fan
Posts: 1116
Joined: Feb 06, 2017
Contact:

#24

Post by morrison-dylan-fan » February 26th, 2020, 9:04 pm

3eyes wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:54 pm
morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm
Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.
A useful reminder to those of us whose kids might be terrified for us. I don't know where you are, mdf. Of course your recent losses makes this a trigger for anxiety about your dad - have you reason to think he's especially vulnerable apart from his age?
Hi Eyes,I'm MDF/ Chris & I live in the UK. My dad heath wise is OK. March 11th will be the first anerversey of Guy's death,along with with that oncoming, everywhere I look I see reports of mass death also oncoming,and Tories & Labour (and also Dems & GOP) are still focused on meaningless issues,istead of trying to limit this disaster.

I am absolutyly furious at those in "power."

My best friend has come round and is with my dad, im having panic attacks over this man.

morrison-dylan-fan
Posts: 1116
Joined: Feb 06, 2017
Contact:

#25

Post by morrison-dylan-fan » February 26th, 2020, 9:55 pm

fori wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:56 pm
morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm
Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.
Don’t apologise for that! I hope you and your dad are safe from the virus. There are precautions you can take, I suggest you look up medical information online. Keep tabs on recorded cases in your area. All the best.
Hi Fori, thank you for the very kind reply,and in your first posts you mentioned that your wife's friends & family have been in lock down for a month. I hope you don't mind me asking about how they get through things day to day,and if me (or someone else on this board) finds we get in the same situation, what would be the best thing to do.

User avatar
fori
Posts: 1302
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
Contact:

#26

Post by fori » February 26th, 2020, 11:23 pm

morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 9:55 pm
fori wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:56 pm
morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm
Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.
Don’t apologise for that! I hope you and your dad are safe from the virus. There are precautions you can take, I suggest you look up medical information online. Keep tabs on recorded cases in your area. All the best.
Hi Fori, thank you for the very kind reply,and in your first posts you mentioned that your wife's friends & family have been in lock down for a month. I hope you don't mind me asking about how they get through things day to day,and if me (or someone else on this board) finds we get in the same situation, what would be the best thing to do.
Well, people can go out, but close contact with strangers is best avoided. Most people get food & other necessities delivered, and because most people stay inside it’s paradoxically pretty easy to get around less busy areas without running into people. There have been endless complications, issues & memes relating to this state of affairs, but it’s seems to be functional for now. Office workers are working from home, but the rest who stay home aren’t making money. Likely if this situation gets reached in your city or town, a consensus on how to behave will quickly develop.

User avatar
clemmetarey
Donator
Posts: 2302
Joined: Nov 20, 2011
Contact:

#27

Post by clemmetarey » February 26th, 2020, 11:26 pm

morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm
Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.
I think it's perfectly normal to fear for those you love. From the infos we're getting here, those with a weak health are more vulnerable.

Out of the 18 cases we had so far, 12 were cured and released from the hospital, which is reassuring. 5 are still in the hospital, and 2 passed away.

If it helps here is a good article from the WHO, giving informations and advices (including how to deal with stress, which I'll probably save for myself).

morrison-dylan-fan
Posts: 1116
Joined: Feb 06, 2017
Contact:

#28

Post by morrison-dylan-fan » February 27th, 2020, 12:04 am

clemmetarey wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:26 pm
morrison-dylan-fan wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:23 pm
Hi all,I know I'm not the only one who has this to worry abou,but I've got no where else to turn to.

Since my mum passed away in 2003,and Guy passed away last March,my dad (who is in his 60's) has always been my rock.

I'm utterly terrified of my dad dying from the virus.

So sorry about posting this guys.
I think it's perfectly normal to fear for those you love. From the infos we're getting here, those with a weak health are more vulnerable.

Out of the 18 cases we had so far, 12 were cured and released from the hospital, which is reassuring. 5 are still in the hospital, and 2 passed away.

If it helps here is a good article from the WHO, giving informations and advices (including how to deal with stress, which I'll probably save for myself).

Thank you for the kind post clemmetarey, and I want to say sorry to you and the board, but I've not felt such a strong mix of utter sadness and anger on a issue before.

I know this is crying over split milk,but everyone in power got a warning from the Sars epidemic, yet China was still allowed to run wet markets,and it has now led to this.

I've agree to my dad & friend orders for me not to view John Hopkins stats or news sites, (I'm currently trying to stop my legs shaking!) but the casual way the stat 60% of global population will get the virus has been reported on, is something I've found utterly chilling.

For the first time in my life, I'm actually going to contact my MP on the issue in a few days.

Thanks for being so understanding, MDF/Chris.

User avatar
xianjiro
Donator
Posts: 7277
Joined: Jun 17, 2015
Location: Kakistani Left Coast
Contact:

#29

Post by xianjiro » February 27th, 2020, 12:54 am

While anxiety is normal, I would caution everyone to try to avoid panic - it doesn't help. As someone living with numerous (serious) health challenges, it would be very easy to be really paranoid about this viral outbreak but given the information I'm reading, I don't see how this is any worse that the usual seasonal flus that make the rounds (and unfortunately lead to thousands of deaths) or as @peeptoad mentioned, last years outbreaks of measles around the planet.

Have avoided mentioning it, but since the subject's been broached, I find this eerily reminiscent of the first few years of HIV/AIDS, but there is so much more known about this virus today - it took years for scientists to figure out what was going on with HIV only back in the 80s: it was a matter of weeks with Covid-19. This gives me a great deal of hope.

The other thing that is telling - look at the stats from Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. Fewer than 80,000 confirmed cases and of those fewer than 3,000 deaths. I remember seeing stats a couple weeks ago about something like 10,000 deaths from seasonal flu in the US this winter alone. Didn't see stats of infections, but they have to be in the millions - again, in the US alone.

So please try and release as much fear and tension as possible: if for no other reason than a stressed immune system is only going to have more difficulty fighting off any bug that might come our way. Yes, news of quarantines and lockdowns makes this sound horrible, but this isn't Ebola or even typhus.

And as far as I'm concerned, there is no need to apologize. One reason why I started the thread is so we can talk about this and offer support and encouragement - not to mention hopefully avoid bad information that might be floating around other places online. If sharing fears here allows one to take a deep breath and better focus, then good has won over bad.

@m-d-f: does your father have health concerns?

Listen, Daddy. Teacher says, 'every time a car alarm bleeps, into heaven a demon sneaks.'
sol can find me here

User avatar
3eyes
Donator
Posts: 6945
Joined: May 17, 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

#30

Post by 3eyes » February 27th, 2020, 1:21 am

Well said, xianjiro, and thanks for starting the thread.

I just learned that my daughter-in-law, who works in an office in NYC, has been asked to work from home for awhile.
:run: STILL the Gaffer!

User avatar
maxwelldeux
Donator
Posts: 7789
Joined: Jun 07, 2016
Location: Seattle-ish, WA, USA
Contact:

#31

Post by maxwelldeux » February 27th, 2020, 1:47 am

3eyes wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 1:21 am
I just learned that my daughter-in-law, who works in an office in NYC, has been asked to work from home for awhile.
Ditto, actually - my office is Boston-based, and we got a note today instructing us to work from home for two weeks if we travel to a country with major outbreaks. And if you are exhibiting symptoms of the cold/flu stay home (this latter part is just good advice).

User avatar
weirdboy
Donator
Posts: 3633
Joined: Jan 03, 2016
Contact:

#32

Post by weirdboy » February 27th, 2020, 2:52 am

I am frustrated with the way the Japanese government has dealt with this so far. In addition to letting random untested people off the ship where nearly everyone got infected (with horrible consequences already confirmed) they also have been giving rather vague and contradictory guidelines to hospitals, who, as a result, are refusing to test people who show up with anything other than "severe" symptoms.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... s-patients

The big plan announced by government is to encourage companies to let employees work from home, and postpone or cancel events with large crowds. Which is not horrible in itself, but kind of like putting a band-aid on a gunshot wound. They are still, by the way, letting anyone from China fly in with no checks so long as it's not from Hubei province and they aren't exhibiting obvious signs of infection when they show up. On the other hand, they just announced today that the Tokyo National Art Museum will be closed due to the outbreak until March 16th. I imagine others will follow suit shortly.

User avatar
RogerTheMovieManiac88
Posts: 1540
Joined: Feb 04, 2017
Location: Westmeath, Ireland
Contact:

#33

Post by RogerTheMovieManiac88 » February 27th, 2020, 3:15 am

Hang in there, MDF (and everybody).

It's not a good situation but there's no need for undue panic or fear. Coronavirus will spread to many places and it will kill far fewer vulnerable people than the usual winter flu.

Here in Ireland, the rugby union match between Italy and Ireland has been cancelled. I'd say many things will be cancelled/closed down but I'm not entirely sure of effectiveness while flights are still allowed from affected areas. It seems to me to be somewhat all over the place as a policy and a partial reaction that leaves the door open for the thing to spread.

Wishing everyone well, particularly those already affected adversely by it.
That's all, folks!

User avatar
sebby
Posts: 6234
Joined: Jul 04, 2011
Contact:

#34

Post by sebby » February 27th, 2020, 4:35 am

To echo above sentiments, I've seen several medical dudes come out and explicitly say publicly that the effect of CV will not be as bad as the typical winter flu.

blocho
Donator
Posts: 2857
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#35

Post by blocho » February 27th, 2020, 6:18 am

sebby wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 4:35 am
To echo above sentiments, I've seen several medical dudes come out and explicitly say publicly that the effect of CV will not be as bad as the typical winter flu.
I feel like I've read something different. Here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

Mortality rate is hard to calculate because no one knows the actual number of infected. It seems like 2% is the worst case scenario. Normal flu is 0.1%.

User avatar
PeacefulAnarchy
Moderator
Posts: 24122
Joined: May 08, 2011
Contact:

#36

Post by PeacefulAnarchy » February 27th, 2020, 7:19 am

RogerTheMovieManiac88 wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 3:15 am
I'd say many things will be cancelled/closed down but I'm not entirely sure of effectiveness while flights are still allowed from affected areas. It seems to me to be somewhat all over the place as a policy and a partial reaction that leaves the door open for the thing to spread.
The west simply doesn't believe in real quarantines any more, because the cost is way too high compared to the relatively cheap lives. Politicians will always prefer to risk more people dying if it mean business can go on as usual vs the risk of being seen as shutting down more than is necessary and hurting the economy. They'll only do something drastic if things are so bad the population demands it, at which point many tens of thousands of people will need to have died.

Sure the monetary cost of acting swiftly is much lower, but often if you're successful people will instead think you overreacted and those in charge would rather bet that they won't be the ones with the bad luck to have a real pandemic on their watch as opposed to a passing scare.

User avatar
sebby
Posts: 6234
Joined: Jul 04, 2011
Contact:

#37

Post by sebby » February 27th, 2020, 10:15 am

blocho wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 6:18 am
sebby wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 4:35 am
To echo above sentiments, I've seen several medical dudes come out and explicitly say publicly that the effect of CV will not be as bad as the typical winter flu.
I feel like I've read something different. Here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

Mortality rate is hard to calculate because no one knows the actual number of infected. It seems like 2% is the worst case scenario. Normal flu is 0.1%.
Mortality rate certainly is higher than the flu, so it's more serious if you get it, but more people this winter will likely become stricken with the flu and die from it in total number.

User avatar
peeptoad
Posts: 1788
Joined: Feb 04, 2017
Contact:

#38

Post by peeptoad » February 27th, 2020, 10:46 am

blocho wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 6:18 am
I feel like I've read something different. Here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

Mortality rate is hard to calculate because no one knows the actual number of infected. It seems like 2% is the worst case scenario. Normal flu is 0.1%.
That's on the high end for influenza.... an average year the global mortality rate is ~ 0.006%. That's variable depending on the year; it could be slightly higher. Global rate for COVID-19 currently sits at ~ 0.7%. The death rate is higher in China, likely for one of reason I posted above.

Having said that I absolutely do understand that people are panicking about this; it is an unknown virus, so we really do not know what to expect. It could get worse, of course, but it would have to get moderately to substantially worse to even be considered a pandemic, at this point. My guess is there is potential for that designation because of transmission speed though. Best thing for people to do is just listen to their local health authorities; if they operate anything like my job the recommended steps and actions (i.e. "standard operating procedures") will be more than adequate to contain and control...unless of course something unexpected develops.

matthewscott8
Donator
Posts: 1743
Joined: May 13, 2015
Contact:

#39

Post by matthewscott8 » February 27th, 2020, 11:27 am

A uk insurer I know is assuming 100,000 UK deaths from coronavirus as their base case in their modelling. The comparison with flu is a little unhelpful. I mean I really badly don't want to get seasonal flu either. So I'm working from home at the moment. But also vulnerable people are inoculated against seasonal flu whereas there's no vaccine for coronavirus.

A member of staff that works for me grew up with pulmonary issues including an asthma so I've signed off on him working from home until the pandemic is over.

It's quite difficult to tread the line between complacency and panic. A colleague has gone to South Korea for a holiday even whilst knowing they have a big outbreak. That feels complacent to me. I think we just have to take what measures we can reasonably do, avoid enclosed public areas as much as possible, wash our hands frequently and before bed.

I get slightly annoyed about infectious diseases, I worked in an office for around 8 years ago where the culture was to come to work when you had an infectious disease. For some reason it's illegal to punch me in the face, but sitting next to me with a cold for 8 hours is reasonable, and sneezing in someone's face isn't a crime. We stopped that now, if people are ill they are turned round and sent home.

User avatar
albajos
Posts: 6820
Joined: May 24, 2016
Location: Norway
Contact:

#40

Post by albajos » February 27th, 2020, 1:00 pm

Norway got their first case. Someone just arrived back home from China.

50 persons are told to stay at home as they might have it. Waiting for test results.

Our goernment's health readiness are taking into account that as many as 25% of all of us can be infected. So I'm not worried, I know we have the apparatus ready for anything. 25% is that they are ready to treat 1,5 million people.

Post Reply