Welcome to the ICM Forum. If you have an account but have trouble logging in, or have other questions, see THIS THREAD.
Podcast: Talking Images (Episode 9 released July 7th)
Polls: 2010s (Results), 1974 (Results), 2019 awards (Jul 11th), 0 Official Lists (Jul 31st)
Challenges: Canada, Low Rated, Director
Film of the Week: Picture of Light, August nominations (Jul 31st)
World Cup S4: Round 2 schedule, Match 2E: Georgia vs Ukraine (Jul 16th), Match 2F: Germany vs Iran (Jul 26th)

Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

Post Reply

Got it?

Yeah, I got it and feel HORRIBLE.
0
No votes
Yes, I got it, but am doing okay.
1
2%
Yes, I had it but have recovered.
1
2%
I think I had it, but not sure.
6
10%
No, still waiting.
40
68%
No, I know I won't get it. Ever.
8
14%
What are we talking about? I live under a rock.
3
5%
 
Total votes: 59

User avatar
funkybusiness
Donator
Posts: 10837
Joined: Jan 22, 2013
Contact:

Re: Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

#1401

Post by funkybusiness » June 4th, 2020, 4:16 am

well, the money looks canadian but I'm not. perhaps that's the problem. the markets usually respond quite well to funny munny.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1402

Post by Cippenham » June 4th, 2020, 6:44 am

An expert seriously said couples should wear a face mask having sex. πŸ€”

blocho
Donator
Posts: 3274
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#1403

Post by blocho » June 4th, 2020, 4:01 pm

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 4th, 2020, 6:44 am
An expert seriously said couples should wear a face mask having sex. πŸ€”
Sure, as a kink thing.

matthewscott8
Donator
Posts: 1954
Joined: May 13, 2015
Contact:

#1404

Post by matthewscott8 » June 4th, 2020, 6:12 pm

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 3rd, 2020, 9:01 am
In the uk our government is thinking of creating a sovereign wealth fund and to invest in major companies as a result of this crisis
Hehe, when you print money it's not wealth. The others are usually derived from oil revenues.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1405

Post by Cippenham » June 4th, 2020, 7:02 pm

matthewscott8 wrote: ↑
June 4th, 2020, 6:12 pm
Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 3rd, 2020, 9:01 am
In the uk our government is thinking of creating a sovereign wealth fund and to invest in major companies as a result of this crisis
Hehe, when you print money it's not wealth. The others are usually derived from oil revenues.
Exactly right, just saying what they are thinking of doing. But will it grow in value and be cheaper than other options eventually?

matthewscott8
Donator
Posts: 1954
Joined: May 13, 2015
Contact:

#1406

Post by matthewscott8 » June 4th, 2020, 11:30 pm

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 4th, 2020, 7:02 pm
matthewscott8 wrote: ↑
June 4th, 2020, 6:12 pm
Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 3rd, 2020, 9:01 am
In the uk our government is thinking of creating a sovereign wealth fund and to invest in major companies as a result of this crisis
Hehe, when you print money it's not wealth. The others are usually derived from oil revenues.
Exactly right, just saying what they are thinking of doing. But will it grow in value and be cheaper than other options eventually?
Yeah, it will probably make money. It's socialism though right, as a capitalist you would believe that the market allocates capital more efficiently than the government?

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1407

Post by Cippenham » June 5th, 2020, 5:07 am

matthewscott8 wrote: ↑
June 4th, 2020, 11:30 pm
Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 4th, 2020, 7:02 pm
matthewscott8 wrote: ↑
June 4th, 2020, 6:12 pm
Hehe, when you print money it's not wealth. The others are usually derived from oil revenues.
Exactly right, just saying what they are thinking of doing. But will it grow in value and be cheaper than other options eventually?
Yeah, it will probably make money. It's socialism though right, as a capitalist you would believe that the market allocates capital more efficiently than the government?
The current Johnson terror Kim John son is a socialist regime yes. People should instead be given incentives To create wealth and to have an enterprise culture, it worked in the 1980s for example. Instead we have the nanny state and worship,of our dear NHS that I now think should be replaced by more localised insurance system like in Germany, but as the national religion I realise it’s not going to happen. But it’s better than the terrible system in the USA . We also have a government and chancellor who believe in the state powers to solve problems. No no no. But still better than Corbyn.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1408

Post by Cippenham » June 5th, 2020, 5:16 am

But I recognise the massive oil based now trillion dollars wealth fund created by Norway must be considered successful obviously. So it is now considered state capitalism if it has ruthless controls looking at investment in good companies, not political selection in poor companies, so some conservative journalists argue for it.

https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/b ... e-norways/

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1409

Post by Cippenham » June 5th, 2020, 7:56 am

Don’t forget Dominic Cummings is actually in charge of the uk Government, he is not a conservative, wants to ensure a good Brexit and levelling up agenda is carried out, the he will step down probably next year.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1410

Post by Cippenham » June 6th, 2020, 7:57 am

Has Covid exposed the US as a failed state. Has it exposed globalism as a process of surrendering power to China. Have liberals been used by China. Is Trump a symptom of this chaos not a cause. Is the US election between old people like the Soviet Union. The collapse of the Us state is like the Soviet Union. Some interesting points here.
It is an inversion of the Soviet collapse however,

https://unherd.com/2020/06/covid-has-ex ... led-state/

User avatar
Knaldskalle
Moderator
Posts: 9843
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: New Mexico, Trumpistan
Contact:

#1411

Post by Knaldskalle » June 8th, 2020, 4:04 pm

Two new studies published in Nature(*)

Shutdowns prevented 60 million coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds

(as always, disable javascript in your browser to read Washington Post articles for free).

Shutdowns estimated to have saved 500,000 lives in the UK, 3.1 million lives in all of Europe. Second study shows shutdowns prevented 60 million cases in US and 285 million cases in China (no estimates of lives saved in that one).


(*)The drawback to Nature being the most famous science journal in the world is that a lot of sensationalist stuff that can't be replicated gets published, so approach all Nature articles with a fair amount of skepticism.
ImageImageImageImage

Please don't hurt yourself, talk to someone.

User avatar
Lammetje
Donator
Posts: 3793
Joined: Oct 04, 2013
Location: Poland
Contact:

#1412

Post by Lammetje » June 9th, 2020, 1:43 am

The lockdown in Poland is practically over. Look what the reopening did to the graph with daily new cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/poland/

Seems like we're screwed. :(
iCM | IMDb | Last.fm | Listal

Image
OldAle1 wrote:stupid double post bullshit crap shit fuck
More memorable quotesShow
PeacefulAnarchy wrote:Active topics is the devil. Please use the forums and subforums as intended and peruse all the topics nicely sorted by topic, not just the currently popular ones displayed in a jumbled mess.
maxwelldeux wrote:If you asked me to kill my wife and pets OR watch Minions, I'd check the runtime and inquire about sobriety requirements before providing an answer.
flaiky wrote::o :satstunned: :guns: :down: :facepalm: :yucky: :mw_confused: :pinch: :ph43r: :ermm: :sweat: :folded: tehe :cowbow: :think: :finger: :rip:
monty wrote:If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. iCM ain't for sissies.
mightysparks wrote:ARGH. RARGH. RARGH. DIE.
Kowry wrote:Thanks, Art Garfunky.
Rich wrote:*runs*

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1413

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 4:31 am

Shutting down had no effect except ruin the economy, in the Uk and New York , we reached the peak beforehand. Social distancing and hand washing, and the virus naturally dissipating was effective. So in the uk it saved not a single life and led to many more deaths for other reasons.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... velihoods/

https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/new ... e-lockdown

User avatar
Onderhond
Posts: 4352
Joined: Dec 23, 2012
Contact:

#1414

Post by Onderhond » June 9th, 2020, 7:46 am

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 4:31 am
Shutting down had no effect except ruin the economy
While it's nice to be critical of what we do and entertain alternatives, statements like these are just bullshit.

Edit: other studies seem to point at 3 million lives saved in Europe alone because of the lockdown. Whether you want to believe that is another thing, but it's clearly no time for absolutes just yet.

User avatar
brokenface
Donator
Posts: 13558
Joined: Dec 29, 2011
Contact:

#1415

Post by brokenface » June 9th, 2020, 9:15 am

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 4:31 am
Shutting down had no effect except ruin the economy, in the Uk and New York , we reached the peak beforehand. Social distancing and hand washing, and the virus naturally dissipating was effective. So in the uk it saved not a single life and led to many more deaths for other reasons.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... velihoods/

https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/new ... e-lockdown
Shutting down isn't one measure it's a combination of measures and they weren't all brought in together so some of those pieces are simplified/misleading by suggesting it just happened as an on-off switch on one date or that you can easily discern which measures had which effects on transmission/death rates. Some of these measures are evidently more effective and more important than others in preventing spread of Covid, but it's difficult to bring in a range of not-always-intuitive measures and have people follow them, stay-at-home is like a blunt tool way to ensure most people do most of the important ones. I think for countries that have no experience of living through a pandemic or any of these kind of measures - and given that at the time they had to make decisions, nobody knew as much about the disease - you probably had to go that route.

If the same happened again you might well take a different approach. But one of the real difficulties is that the most effective would probably be to go straight to quarantine/closed borders as early as possible (e.g. in this case probably in early Jan) and cancel big events much earlier too...but at that point in time, it's very hard to convince a population that draconian measures needed. It's only when it starts to have serious effects that people take it seriously but by that point it's already out of control.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1416

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 10:30 am

The imperial model is completely discredited and wrong, it is quite clear there was never going to be anything like 500 thousand deaths in the uk, it has been proved to be wrong as previously stated. That report is therefore completely wrong.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1417

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 10:31 am

I was ok with 3 week shutdown and then just protect old and vulnerable, not terrorise and ruin children education and peoples lives

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1418

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 10:32 am

I agree we should have closed borders, obviously

User avatar
brokenface
Donator
Posts: 13558
Joined: Dec 29, 2011
Contact:

#1419

Post by brokenface » June 9th, 2020, 11:38 am

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 10:30 am
The imperial model is completely discredited and wrong, it is quite clear there was never going to be anything like 500 thousand deaths in the uk, it has been proved to be wrong as previously stated. That report is therefore completely wrong.
500k was a worst case scenario with zero action to control. We'll never know if that was correct as that was not tested in reality. I've no doubt there's flaws with the model, models are always limited by the data you have with which to make assumptions of variables and with an emerging disease that can be unreliable and change as more info is gathered. But that doesn't mean the model itself is completely wrong.

User avatar
OldAle1
Donator
Posts: 4586
Joined: Feb 09, 2017
Location: Dairyland, USA
Contact:

#1420

Post by OldAle1 » June 9th, 2020, 12:19 pm

Just more proof that conservatives pretty much just care about the economy over lives any day.

User avatar
pitchorneirda
Posts: 100
Joined: Feb 11, 2019
Contact:

#1421

Post by pitchorneirda » June 9th, 2020, 12:31 pm

OldAle1 wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 12:19 pm
Just more proof that conservatives pretty much just care about the economy over lives any day.
I wish we could have another system but meanwhile, the tension and dependence created by capitalism means that destroying the economy is also destroying life...


User avatar
Onderhond
Posts: 4352
Joined: Dec 23, 2012
Contact:

#1423

Post by Onderhond » June 9th, 2020, 1:48 pm

So according to the WHO, those who have the virus but show no signs of illness hardly spread the disease at all.
That would mean that it would be pretty safe for kids to go to school even when there's a second outbreak. The initial "but then they'll contaminate each other, and their parents etc" concerns don't seem to be too valid after all.

User avatar
OldAle1
Donator
Posts: 4586
Joined: Feb 09, 2017
Location: Dairyland, USA
Contact:

#1424

Post by OldAle1 » June 9th, 2020, 2:33 pm

pitchorneirda wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 12:31 pm
OldAle1 wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 12:19 pm
Just more proof that conservatives pretty much just care about the economy over lives any day.
I wish we could have another system but meanwhile, the tension and dependence created by capitalism means that destroying the economy is also destroying life...
Fair point, but even in what is arguably the most capitalistic country ever, mine, conservatism used to have something to do with planning for the future - at least, that was the argument that was made. You can credit Theodore Roosevelt with the very beginnings of the conservation movement on a national political level, and much later Richard Nixon with the EPA. One tenet of conservative philosophy used to be that we need to, you know, CONSERVE - whether it was the environment or personal wealth. I have to say at this moment I'm thankful that my older family members - all of whom are, or were, Republicans - believed in that notion. They all saved. And they all believe in being cautious in times of trouble. None of these people - aged 71-91 - have gotten the disease, none of them is suffering economically because they planned for the future. And none of them were ever remotely close to wealthy or upper-class - they just saved. This is something that has been lost in American conservatism on the national political level - one reason why at least a few former Republicans in my family have defected in recent years, realizing that it wasn't the Democrats who were throwing away the most money - and at least the Democrats usually made some effort to pay for things.

So now in what is theoretically at least the wealthiest country in the world we're all supposed to go back to work and pretend this disease doesn't even exist anymore, won't hurt us, or that it matters much less than making sure the stock market gets booming again and people can go to movies and casinos and bars and restaurants and hair salons. If conservatism really was all about planning ahead, measured growth, balancing budgets, and - most importantly - creating a productive society for everyone - we would not be in half the mess we are in. We could have actually sat out the past 3 months, we could have had an infrastructure that could have scaled up testing rapidly, we could have had a rainy day fund that would have helped those who most needed it - and who will of course be needed in turn to help get the economy moving. Win-win I say. But as long as "conservatism" is in reality all about deregulating, cutting taxes on the wealthiest and large corporations, and denying all facts and science that get in the way of short-term profits, we are going to continue to be screwed in this and in any future unforeseen calamity.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1425

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 4:51 pm

brokenface wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 11:38 am
Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 10:30 am
The imperial model is completely discredited and wrong, it is quite clear there was never going to be anything like 500 thousand deaths in the uk, it has been proved to be wrong as previously stated. That report is therefore completely wrong.
500k was a worst case scenario with zero action to control. We'll never know if that was correct as that was not tested in reality. I've no doubt there's flaws with the model, models are always limited by the data you have with which to make assumptions of variables and with an emerging disease that can be unreliable and change as more info is gathered. But that doesn't mean the model itself is completely wrong.
It was tested, it is called Sweden. They model predicted 10 times the actual figures for Sweden. Proof enough.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1426

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 4:53 pm

You guys are right, the economic plans of governments to recover will be interesting, Rishi Sunak is not to be underestimated.

User avatar
brokenface
Donator
Posts: 13558
Joined: Dec 29, 2011
Contact:

#1427

Post by brokenface » June 9th, 2020, 5:32 pm

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 4:51 pm
brokenface wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 11:38 am
Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 10:30 am
The imperial model is completely discredited and wrong, it is quite clear there was never going to be anything like 500 thousand deaths in the uk, it has been proved to be wrong as previously stated. That report is therefore completely wrong.
500k was a worst case scenario with zero action to control. We'll never know if that was correct as that was not tested in reality. I've no doubt there's flaws with the model, models are always limited by the data you have with which to make assumptions of variables and with an emerging disease that can be unreliable and change as more info is gathered. But that doesn't mean the model itself is completely wrong.
It was tested, it is called Sweden. They model predicted 10 times the actual figures for Sweden. Proof enough.
Sweden did not do nothing.

blocho
Donator
Posts: 3274
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#1428

Post by blocho » June 9th, 2020, 6:53 pm

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 10:31 am
I was ok with 3 week shutdown and then just protect old and vulnerable, not terrorise and ruin children education and peoples lives
I could point out that one of the links Cipp cited specifically said that closing the schools was the right decision and essential for preventing the spread of the virus. But what would be the point? There's no point in this discussion.

I've come to believe that Cipp is very sincere. I don't think he's a troll. He means what he writes. I think he means well. I just happen to think he's very misguided, not in his ideas but in the way he thinks. But it is exhausting and pointless to engage with him because he's not going to change his mind on anything. So let's not. I know it's very tempting. I've done it in the past. It's not worth it. If you have the energy, go for it, though you'll never find satisfaction.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1429

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 7:50 pm

Thanks Blocho but I so happen to be correct, this virus is not as bad as they said, in Germany a bad flu season kills a lot more. In fact as someone shows above children or anyone with no symptoms is not going to pass it on to others or each other. Or very unlikely, even the WHO says this. So schools don’t need social distancing and should reopen .

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1430

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 7:52 pm

The government means well but are very misguided. Why impose immigration lockdown now and not earlier. Just one crazy consequence of muddled thinking.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1431

Post by Cippenham » June 9th, 2020, 8:08 pm

brokenface wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 5:32 pm
Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 4:51 pm
brokenface wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 11:38 am


500k was a worst case scenario with zero action to control. We'll never know if that was correct as that was not tested in reality. I've no doubt there's flaws with the model, models are always limited by the data you have with which to make assumptions of variables and with an emerging disease that can be unreliable and change as more info is gathered. But that doesn't mean the model itself is completely wrong.
It was tested, it is called Sweden. They model predicted 10 times the actual figures for Sweden. Proof enough.
Sweden did not do nothing.
I know but they did not do lockdown, the measures they did reduce the death toll, they admitted mistakes as regards care homes for example

User avatar
Onderhond
Posts: 4352
Joined: Dec 23, 2012
Contact:

#1432

Post by Onderhond » June 9th, 2020, 10:04 pm

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 7:50 pm
Or very unlikely, even the WHO says this.
... and they've already retracted their statement.

matthewscott8
Donator
Posts: 1954
Joined: May 13, 2015
Contact:

#1433

Post by matthewscott8 » June 9th, 2020, 10:12 pm

OldAle1 wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 12:19 pm
Just more proof that conservatives pretty much just care about the economy over lives any day.
They get scared by something different happening. I spoke to my dad and told him about Universal Basic Income. He was against it just because he was scared about what life without work would mean. He's been happily retired for 15 years, which I didn't being up. And his much younger wife works 3 days a week because he has cash and a paid off mortgage. They have beliefs like people who aren't doing well in life are inherently bad/lazy and that everything happens for a reason, everyone gets what they deserve etc.

User avatar
GruesomeTwosome
Donator
Posts: 3043
Joined: Feb 03, 2017
Location: Industrial Wasteland, USA
Contact:

#1434

Post by GruesomeTwosome » June 9th, 2020, 10:25 pm

matthewscott8 wrote: ↑
June 9th, 2020, 10:12 pm
They have beliefs like people who aren't doing well in life are inherently bad/lazy and that everything happens for a reason, everyone gets what they deserve etc.
That describes what the majority of American conservatives believe, to a tee.
I’m to remember every man I've seen fall into a plate of spaghetti???

My IMDB profile
ICM
Letterboxd

blocho
Donator
Posts: 3274
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
Contact:

#1435

Post by blocho » June 9th, 2020, 10:56 pm

I went and got the antibody test, which came back positive unsurprisingly. And yes, I know those tests aren't very reliable.

User avatar
Pretentious Hipster
Donator
Posts: 20263
Joined: Oct 24, 2011
Contact:

#1436

Post by Pretentious Hipster » June 10th, 2020, 12:50 am

The seniors are complaining that they are in a totalitarian policing state. They are yelling at every server now and one new server slammed a plate in the kitchen and ran away crying. Sorry for wanting to keep you seniors alive.

User avatar
TraverseTown
Posts: 305
Joined: Jan 25, 2013
Location: USA
Contact:

#1437

Post by TraverseTown » June 10th, 2020, 1:41 am

Hair salons opened today in my region. Of course, my extremely sickly grandmother was the very first person to be serviced by her hairdresser. She's 76yrs old and has COPD and was in the ICU a few years ago with respiratory failure. She won't listen to me. I've accepted she might die from this in the next 6 months. I'm at peace with that and I accept that she's old and doesn't have long left anyway, so she should live it the way she wants. The more she goes out and doesn't get sick, the more emboldened she'll be to keep doing it.

What I'm not ready for is my mom, who's in denial and won't even entertain the thought that my grandmother's death might be imminent. She's unwilling to "brace for impact". My mom's in a bad mental place right now since her husband just left her and her favorite dog died all since quarantine started. Don't know what might happen if one or both of my grandparents who live together might get infected and die. Like, she might have a heart attack or stroke out of pure stress and grief. So scared.

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1438

Post by Cippenham » June 10th, 2020, 7:29 am

https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/june-202 ... tastrophe/

I thought you might enjoy this attack on Boris and his cabinet in their response to the crisis

Cippenham
Donator
Posts: 13320
Joined: May 09, 2011
Location: Dorset England
Contact:

#1439

Post by Cippenham » June 10th, 2020, 7:32 am

The WHO may as well be called the Chinese communist party health organisation, so should really be regarded as not reliable at this point anyway.

User avatar
Onderhond
Posts: 4352
Joined: Dec 23, 2012
Contact:

#1440

Post by Onderhond » June 10th, 2020, 7:52 am

Cippenham wrote: ↑
June 10th, 2020, 7:32 am
The WHO may as well be called the Chinese communist party health organisation, so should really be regarded as not reliable at this point anyway.
You didn't have any problems quoting them when it served your narrative, you can't have it both ways.

Post Reply