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Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

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Got it?

Yeah, I got it and feel HORRIBLE.
0
No votes
Yes, I got it, but am doing okay.
1
2%
Yes, I had it but have recovered.
1
2%
I think I had it, but not sure.
5
9%
No, still waiting.
39
70%
No, I know I won't get it. Ever.
7
13%
What are we talking about? I live under a rock.
3
5%
 
Total votes: 56

Cippenham
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Re: Covid-19 or Worldwide Flu

#1161

Post by Cippenham » May 15th, 2020, 9:42 am

In uk they are not required, masks, and recommended only recently for confined spaces. I have a few and for those in uk this is how to find them. It deals very odd wearing a mask. It’s not British really..

https://www.independent.co.uk/extras/in ... 10331.html

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jal90
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#1162

Post by jal90 » May 15th, 2020, 9:53 am

Cippenham wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 6:12 am
Looks like 19 million already had the virus in the uk, we have a 100 percent success antibody test coming to see if you had it and a vaccine may be ready this summer.
Any source on that? Because I can already assure that a vaccine for this summer is impossible, as well as a 100% success antibody test. And no country has made enough tests to calculate the incidence in the overall population beyond estimation.

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OldAle1
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#1163

Post by OldAle1 » May 15th, 2020, 11:35 am

xianjiro wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 7:04 am
Knaldskalle wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 5:32 am
The city I live in has a requirement that all retail customers wear a mask, by order of the mayor. The mayor is also a doctor, that might have something to do with it.
yeah, unless you were in Wisconsin where it would probably be ruled a gross overreach of power :P
so
My county, shockingly enough, just posted a stay-at-home order on it's website. But the fact that we border Illinois, and are sandwiched between the state line and the most liberal county, Dane, has a lot to do with that I'm sure. I'm really afraid that this state is going to be a bellwether for a lot that's terrible - both politically and culturally, and in terms of how this disease is going to be fought or ignored going forward. Here we have a real battle going on - as it has gone on since the 2018 election - between the governor and the congress, and by and large the (R) congress is winning every fight, and essentially saying "we care about business, and going back to work is the best thing, lives (except for the unborn) are obviously totally unimportant. Please go out today, seniors, and vote for politicians who love the stock market!" I'm afraid it's working so far, and not just here.

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#1164

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 15th, 2020, 11:39 am

I think my workplace is doing some illegal stuff. Ford said there will be a temporary pandemic pay increase starting April 25. All we got so far is a letter saying that "we need more details before we are able to do it". The province is reopening Tuesday partially so I feel like that temp pay increase will end, and the company will never need to do anything for it.

See shit like this is why I'm an M-L

But hey, they gave us free coffee and doughnuts

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#1165

Post by brokenface » May 15th, 2020, 11:54 am

jal90 wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 9:53 am
Cippenham wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 6:12 am
Looks like 19 million already had the virus in the uk, we have a 100 percent success antibody test coming to see if you had it and a vaccine may be ready this summer.
Any source on that? Because I can already assure that a vaccine for this summer is impossible, as well as a 100% success antibody test. And no country has made enough tests to calculate the incidence in the overall population beyond estimation.
The 19m comes from one modelling study published by a guy from Uni of Manchester that's been spread widely by tabloids this morning. It's not based on any testing and it generally looks very, very questionable, see Twitter thread below going through some of the issues.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs ... 13528?af=R


--

Antibodies, good if we have a reliable one to use now, like you say it won't be 100% but hopefully reliable enough to get a lot better data than we have so far on overall population incidence.

--

Vaccine - there's some hope in the one developed by Jenner/Oxford Vaccine group, but we certainly can't assume it'll work, plenty of promising vaccines don't. I'm a subject on the Phase I myself so I am following quite closely :) Absolute best case scenario is some early positive results from the Phase I study and push through the bigger Phase II study as quick as possible this summer so you might be at a point later this year that you could be ethically justified in start deploying it wider in vulnerable population/healthcare workers (which'd be much faster than normal, but could be justified in circumstances - however that'd also depend on how quick they can scale up production). It certainly won't be ready for mass vaccination across population this summer.

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#1166

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 15th, 2020, 12:02 pm

Seriously, I might contact the general manager for this. But then again, a part time dishwasher doing something drastic like this. It would be a guarantee that I will get fired.

Edit: turns out dietary workers are illegible which is what I expected anyways, but it looks like the psws don't have it either.
Last edited by Pretentious Hipster on May 15th, 2020, 12:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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#1167

Post by jal90 » May 15th, 2020, 12:22 pm

brokenface wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 11:54 am
jal90 wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 9:53 am
Cippenham wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 6:12 am
Looks like 19 million already had the virus in the uk, we have a 100 percent success antibody test coming to see if you had it and a vaccine may be ready this summer.
Any source on that? Because I can already assure that a vaccine for this summer is impossible, as well as a 100% success antibody test. And no country has made enough tests to calculate the incidence in the overall population beyond estimation.
The 19m comes from one modelling study published by a guy from Uni of Manchester that's been spread widely by tabloids this morning. It's not based on any testing and it generally looks very, very questionable, see Twitter thread below going through some of the issues.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs ... 13528?af=R


--
Pretty interesting thread, thanks.

There is a study in seroprevalence being held in Spain at the moment. The current results talk about only 5% or less of the population having antibodies for corona. That's why I'm sceptical at the very least when these large estimations are thrown in other places, moreso when the maths behind are dubious and the political intent is clear.
brokenface wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 11:54 am
Antibodies, good if we have a reliable one to use now, like you say it won't be 100% but hopefully reliable enough to get a lot better data than we have so far on overall population incidence.
That was a nitpick on my part, just a reminder that we are never going to get a 100% reliable test. Instrumental accuracy almost never moves in absolutes.
brokenface wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 11:54 am
Vaccine - there's some hope in the one developed by Jenner/Oxford Vaccine group, but we certainly can't assume it'll work, plenty of promising vaccines don't. I'm a subject on the Phase I myself so I am following quite closely :) Absolute best case scenario is some early positive results from the Phase I study and push through the bigger Phase II study as quick as possible this summer so you might be at a point later this year that you could be ethically justified in start deploying it wider in vulnerable population/healthcare workers (which'd be much faster than normal, but could be justified in circumstances - however that'd also depend on how quick they can scale up production). It certainly won't be ready for mass vaccination across population this summer.
I was surprised to know about that because the consensus everywhere is at least beyond 2020 to get a viable vaccine, let alone to have enough stock and to incorporate it to vaccine calendars. I certainly have my reservations not only on whether Jenner/Oxford Vaccine group will make it in the scheduled time, but on whether it would be plausible to have it available for mass vaccination any soon. Not just due to the necessary steps in safety and effectiveness, which at some point need to be tackled before this happens, but also on the logistics of its administration to the population.

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#1168

Post by Kublai Khan » May 15th, 2020, 2:20 pm

I've had two beliefs be re-enforced from all this:

1) Americans hate being inconvenienced in the slightest. Soon I will be one of the very few wearing a mask around.
2) Americans have no faith in public government.
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#1169

Post by brokenface » May 15th, 2020, 2:34 pm

jal90 wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 12:22 pm
brokenface wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 11:54 am
Vaccine - there's some hope in the one developed by Jenner/Oxford Vaccine group, but we certainly can't assume it'll work, plenty of promising vaccines don't. I'm a subject on the Phase I myself so I am following quite closely :) Absolute best case scenario is some early positive results from the Phase I study and push through the bigger Phase II study as quick as possible this summer so you might be at a point later this year that you could be ethically justified in start deploying it wider in vulnerable population/healthcare workers (which'd be much faster than normal, but could be justified in circumstances - however that'd also depend on how quick they can scale up production). It certainly won't be ready for mass vaccination across population this summer.
I was surprised to know about that because the consensus everywhere is at least beyond 2020 to get a viable vaccine, let alone to have enough stock and to incorporate it to vaccine calendars. I certainly have my reservations not only on whether Jenner/Oxford Vaccine group will make it in the scheduled time, but on whether it would be plausible to have it available for mass vaccination any soon. Not just due to the necessary steps in safety and effectiveness, which at some point need to be tackled before this happens, but also on the logistics of its administration to the population.
Yeah, I have reservations too. I think government have latched onto this vaccine project as one of the few hopeful things we have in the UK response, so they are hyping it.

But there are some justifiable reasons to have hope in it - in terms of safety, they had a headstart as it's a modification of one that had already starting testing in humans for a similar coronavirus (MERS). That meant they were able to get to putting this one into humans a lot quicker than if starting from scratch. And there has been some results from the monkey studies which are promising as to efficacy, but that's very small numbers and obviously animal testing only goes so far, in terms of what you can learn about how it'll work in humans.

I don't know how close they are to starting Phase II, my understanding is that would include groups that are more likely to be exposed, i.e. frontline healthcare workers. Then you are more likely to get efficacy results as you can only really know if it works if you've got people being exposed. If they haven't started recruiting that yet, that's still weeks away from starting and then it's weeks-months after that before you could hope for meaningful results, but I would say Phase I was astonishingly quick, they sent out first email/press release for volunteers end of March, they'd fully recruited in Oxford and dosed all of them (500 people) I think by start of May, now they're doing a few other regions. I would think as long there hasn't been any safety issues, they'll be starting Phase II pretty soon.

Logistics will certainly be an issue. They've got a deal with AstraZeneca now for scaling up production and that's where you've got to have these collaborations with pharmaceuticals, they have the capacity, University can't do that part. And yes, then even if you're making enough, the logistics of distribution. I would guess the flu vaccine would be the model they'd roughly look to follow - so in the ideal scenario where they get positive results in the next few months, they could maybe deploy it this winter in the same population who normally gets flu vaccine each year? Big ask, lots of ifs..

Image

Above diagram was a ballpark best case scenario NY Times published. It seems fairly on schedule with where it is at the minute and by that it's hard to see anything coming through this year, but I do think that final approval might well be fast-tracked even more than that, given the circumstances.

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#1170

Post by xianjiro » May 15th, 2020, 3:55 pm

OldAle1 wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 11:35 am
xianjiro wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 7:04 am
Knaldskalle wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 5:32 am
The city I live in has a requirement that all retail customers wear a mask, by order of the mayor. The mayor is also a doctor, that might have something to do with it.
yeah, unless you were in Wisconsin where it would probably be ruled a gross overreach of power :P
so
My county, shockingly enough, just posted a stay-at-home order on it's website. But the fact that we border Illinois, and are sandwiched between the state line and the most liberal county, Dane, has a lot to do with that I'm sure. I'm really afraid that this state is going to be a bellwether for a lot that's terrible - both politically and culturally, and in terms of how this disease is going to be fought or ignored going forward. Here we have a real battle going on - as it has gone on since the 2018 election - between the governor and the congress, and by and large the (R) congress is winning every fight, and essentially saying "we care about business, and going back to work is the best thing, lives (except for the unborn) are obviously totally unimportant. Please go out today, seniors, and vote for politicians who love the stock market!" I'm afraid it's working so far, and not just here.
by "the congress" you mean the state legislature, right? not the Congress (that meets in DC, not the people's republic between the lakes).

Otherwise your worries aren't lost on me - and why I found the court's ruling troubling. BTW, and this question is very serious, did the newly elected judge participate in this decision? I haven't yet seen that answered in the reports I've read.

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#1171

Post by OldAle1 » May 15th, 2020, 4:06 pm

xianjiro wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 3:55 pm
OldAle1 wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 11:35 am
xianjiro wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 7:04 am


yeah, unless you were in Wisconsin where it would probably be ruled a gross overreach of power :P
so
My county, shockingly enough, just posted a stay-at-home order on it's website. But the fact that we border Illinois, and are sandwiched between the state line and the most liberal county, Dane, has a lot to do with that I'm sure. I'm really afraid that this state is going to be a bellwether for a lot that's terrible - both politically and culturally, and in terms of how this disease is going to be fought or ignored going forward. Here we have a real battle going on - as it has gone on since the 2018 election - between the governor and the congress, and by and large the (R) congress is winning every fight, and essentially saying "we care about business, and going back to work is the best thing, lives (except for the unborn) are obviously totally unimportant. Please go out today, seniors, and vote for politicians who love the stock market!" I'm afraid it's working so far, and not just here.
by "the congress" you mean the state legislature, right? not the Congress (that meets in DC, not the people's republic between the lakes).

Otherwise your worries aren't lost on me - and why I found the court's ruling troubling. BTW, and this question is very serious, did the newly elected judge participate in this decision? I haven't yet seen that answered in the reports I've read.
Yeah state legislature. I need to read up more on this actually, not sure of the judicial breakdown. But the new justice, though on the liberal side, isn't enough to swing what is still a majority conservative court.

In any case, given that I don't currently work, and have enough to live on (hopefully) through the end of this crisis - assuming there is an end - I'm not so much worried about day-to-day stuff myself, except for the sadly not irrational fear that I'm at some point going to be out wearing a mask and some fuckface is going to come along and say "take that off you dirty lib commie Obama fuckhead" or something and spit on me. There's a guy with a barn about 2 miles from me which has VOTE TRUMP painted on it in letters you could see a mile away - he keeps re-painting it every few months - who used to have "SHOOT THE LIBS" painted on another side of his barn; I think he may have decided it wasn't worth the hassle to keep repainting that, or he may have gotten a warning. I don't think there are that many people like that right around me, but they exist. Possibly the people across the hall, though I don't think they'd do anything nasty with their little kids always right around them. And as anybody paying attention knows, Wisconsin remains a simmering cauldron of anger, in part I'm fairly sure because, as with most of the country, those Trump voters who aren't complete morons do realize that if the gerrymandering fix wasn't in, and if everybody voted at the rate that 77-year-old rural JesusHatesBlacksandGays voters do, this would be a very different country and their grip on the culture/government would be gone.

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#1172

Post by blocho » May 15th, 2020, 5:14 pm

Don't know much about Wisconsin, though as a Packers fan I have great affection for the state. I remember about five years ago I was doing some work at a research library in Los Angeles, and the head librarian was from Wisconsin. I overheard her once talking with a colleague about how the political situation in Wisconsin had gotten so bad that it was impossible to have a conversation with a neighbor unless it was about the Packers.

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#1173

Post by xianjiro » May 15th, 2020, 6:22 pm

Ugh - Wisconsin and the Packers! Need I mention that there is an anti-gay epithet that ends in Packers? I lived for a handful of years something like 16 miles south of the state line and we spent lots of time on Lake Geneva and in Milwaukee. Can never remember if that's the way you spell it and we end ours in ie or the other way around. But anyway, my high school principal was a horrid GB Packers fan and that was like being a black, gay, disabled, Mormon Jew in Alabama after sundown. I exaggerate. But the funny thing is we always thought of Wisconsin as being "more liberal", but maybe that's because we (my father and I) remember actual socialists being elected to public office in the state and pretty much everyone carrying a union membership card who wasn't a millionaire. How things have changed and I'm more than willing to admit that the Lake Geneva-Milwaukee axis might not be exactly representative of the 'rest of the state'. Oh, and we'd head out to New Glarus on occasion, but going anywhere else in the state was pretty much under duress. Even the last time I went to Chicagoland to visit family I flew in and out of Milwaukee (because Old Harry is such a pain in the ass).

Anyway, what does all this have to do with CoV-19? Not much - so I guess I better make it, right?

I'm not really sure that Wisconsin isn't so different to any other microcosm of this country when it comes to the political divide and culture wars. And yes that manifests in reaction to stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and an over-reaction to the 'fake' pandemic. Not sure what we can actually do about it though since people really don't want to be convinced but I find it really interesting how long it's been since we've heard about how Antifa is ruining this country with their horrible protests and demonstrations, wonder if anyone is noting anywhere that the left hasn't carried weapons into a statehouse - not that I can remember. Did those 'protesters' in Lansing really think legislators were going to beat them into a coma with Robert's Rules of Order or bureaucrats would papercut them to death? Talk about proportionality! But who knows, maybe if white, underemployed, middle aged men were being pulled over for driving their vehicles and shot with little or no provocation OR if that same group was basically dropping dead en masse their protests might seem more proportional. Gee, what if people were using the pulpits and press to blame that group for the spread of CoV-19 and the 86k+ deaths as divine retribution for their sinful and evil choices?

It does seem many are really wondering what Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will hold for the upcoming election and if this virus continues to be an issue, how will that result will effect things. And while we in the industrialized west can take some comfort in the fact that we all dropped the ball on CoV-19 in January and February, I think that's very cold comfort if any. How the hell are we going to deal with this a year from now? How will the virus effect the get-out-the-vote effort? If either party challenges expansion of vote-by-mail (or even no reason absentee ballot requests), what effect will this have? How willing will any voters be to go to polls if CoV-19 is running rampant because too many people are tired of the new normal?

It's in a time of crisis when leadership matters most. And even if one has concerns that we've over-reacted to CoV-19, leadership demands a more reasoned and reasonable approach. Imagine if FDR had said "Battle of Britain? Who cares! Let them build their own planes after what they did to us in the Revolutionary War and War of 1812." "Honolulu? Let the Japanese have it. It's not like it's that close to my properties in New York, Georgia, and Nova Scotia (or was it New Brunswick?) And what do we get from there anyway? Pineapples! Who likes pineapples?"

Sorry, starting to rant but then again, not too many people to talk to these days.

One other little 'fun fact' I'll share about Wisconsin: first time I remember seeing a man wearing a red arm band with a white circle and that funny little misshapen cross was while we were driving through a neighborhood in Milwaukee. He was standing on the corner like that was perfectly normal. :shrug:

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#1174

Post by blocho » May 15th, 2020, 6:38 pm

That was quite the rant about Wisconsin!

I thought this tweet had a very good point:

For those not in the know, back in 1967, some Black Panthers went to the statehouse in Sacramento to protest and legally carried firearms with them. Somehow, they didn't end up shot by the cops (at least on that occasion -- local police and the FBI would end up with a long record of murdering Black Panthers). White California had a collective freakout, none more so than the governor, Ronald Reagan, and the whole episode led to conservatives passing gun control laws in California.

In contrast, today, nutcases carry automatic weapons to protest public health measures at statehouses, and they're treated with kid gloves. Militias guard businesses that reopen illegally, and no one does anything. Heavily armed bands illegally occupy land in Nevada, and the authorities give up on enforcing the law.

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#1175

Post by OldAle1 » May 15th, 2020, 6:46 pm

Yeah Wisconsin embodies most of the same contradictions as most - maybe all - other states. One of the things I learned rapidly after moving to "liberal" Vermont in 2000 - during the height of the Civil Unions / Take Back Vermont debate - was that just like every other state, the rural areas were pretty redneck, conservative, religious, anti-intellectual, and the urban areas were where all the people who might actually read a book lived. Oversimplification and snark aside, that is largely true throughout the country and possibly the world. And one of my biggest fears about the long-term effects of this pandemic is that cities are going to be less and less attractive, and more people may well self-select themselves into rural areas that are full of people just like them - and only like them. Which is what a lot of rural folks like about where they live.

The one thing that is different, politically, is this insane power grab that the legislature made after Walker got defeated, and that's something that only North Carolina is also having to deal with. Oh you want a Democrat for governor do you? Well we'll just cut his power to virtually zero, not let him get anything at all done, and then when things are really fucked come next election, we'll spend millions to convince you that it was all his fault, and it will work. I also think there's a desire still pretty strong on the part of the Rs to bury Wisconsin's progressive past - even though it's largely been dead for 50 years now, Russ Feingold excepted, and a fear of the corrupting influence of the two neighbors which we share our largest border with, Illinois and Minnesota. But never fear, COVID is here - infection rates are increasing faster in all three of these states than the national average, and the only way we can fight it is by drinking bleach, going out and partying like it's... well, like it's any normal day, this is Wisconsin, beer belly central... and maybe waving guns in the faces of owned libs. If we just get all the seniors to come out to our businesses and spend money, everything will be swell, Jesus and DJT will save us.

And this is why I'm glad I live almost a stone's throw from the border, and can do all my grocery shopping in Illinois, where masks are mandatory (at least for now).

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#1176

Post by xianjiro » May 15th, 2020, 7:17 pm

:party: let's party like it's 9.9.19! :cheers:

:banana:


PS: I think 9.9.oh9 would work better with Prince's music, but it just doesn't strike me as canon-worthy :P

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#1177

Post by Cippenham » May 15th, 2020, 11:11 pm

Thanks broken for some excellent details above.


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#1179

Post by Lilarcor » May 17th, 2020, 1:09 pm

I am a Free.
I am not Man.
A Number.


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#1181

Post by Armoreska » May 17th, 2020, 3:04 pm

Lilarcor wrote:
May 17th, 2020, 1:09 pm
I am a Free.
I am not Man.
A Number.
That was coded for those in the know. You didn't pass. :D
Image
currently working towards a vegan/low waste world + thru such film lists (besides TV): 2010s bests, RW Fassbinder, Luis Bunuel, Yasujiro Ozu, Eric Rohmer, Visual Effects nominees, kid-related stuff, great animes (mini-serie or feature), very 80s movies, 17+ sci-fi lists on watchlist, ENVIRO, remarkable Silent Films and Pre-Code (exploring 1925 atm) and every shorts and docu list I'm aware of and
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1434
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#1182

Post by Cippenham » May 17th, 2020, 3:41 pm



If you think Boris plan is too complicated, this explains it.

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#1183

Post by Lilarcor » May 17th, 2020, 4:02 pm

Armoreska wrote:
May 17th, 2020, 3:04 pm
Lilarcor wrote:
May 17th, 2020, 1:09 pm
I am a Free.
I am not Man.
A Number.
That was coded for those in the know. You didn't pass. :D
:hmph:

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#1184

Post by matthewscott8 » May 17th, 2020, 5:50 pm

Cippenham wrote:
May 15th, 2020, 6:12 am
Looks like 19 million already had the virus in the uk, we have a 100 percent success antibody test coming to see if you had it and a vaccine may be ready this summer. All good news. I do not necessarily oppose the lockdown, what do I know. I just look at the sceptics arguments with some sympathy. If they are right then there is a massive cost for a wrong policy. I do think there is a strong case for the imperial college model based on 13 year old code to be wrong and that using Swedish data proves the model massively overestimated the number of deaths without a lockdown. But that remains open to be proved . The trouble is 95 per cent go along with the government regardless of the scientific proof. Because they feel safe in the lockdown, simple as that. I am not a troll on this subject as I am trying to present a balanced argument.
code doesn't go stale Cipp, it's not a loaf of bread. Modelling itself is quite simple, the difficulty is in the assumptions you put into it. 95% go along with the government, I mean that is pure nonsense, we live in a country where people have profound misgivings ahout the competency and integrity of politicians.

One of the main policies was a compassionate one, protect the NHS. Rip through would have been asking the NHS workers to go through Dante's inferno as capacity in hospitals was simply overwhelmed.

Much of the damage would still have been done with ripthrough as the rest of the world was on lockdown.

Ideally we wouldn't have had incompetent populist leaders in places like UK, Brazil and USA going into this. Feeling guilty about your support for them much Cipp?

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#1185

Post by Cippenham » May 17th, 2020, 6:10 pm

I mean the whole model is totally discredited. The proof is applying Swedish data to the model, it predicted over 10 times the death toll if they did not lock down than the result, there are lots of scientific evidence but this much is clear. The virus is not the Black Death. In the uk only around 33 people under 31 have died from it. The lockdown was a result of pressure from other countries and panic that the NHS could not cope, the centralised service not able to respond quickly and test and trace like decentralised Germany. There is a great interview with the historian David Starkey. The NHS became the national corona service and stopped treatment for heart and cancer and scared people from seeking treatment causing more deaths perhaps than the virus.


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can ... rom-sweden

This explains why in more detail why the imperial college model got it wrong

https://www.theblogmire.com/is-lockdown ... otherwise/

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#1186

Post by matthewscott8 » May 17th, 2020, 7:21 pm

Cippenham wrote:
May 17th, 2020, 6:10 pm
I mean the whole model is totally discredited. The proof is applying Swedish data to the model, it predicted over 10 times the death toll if they did not lock down than the result, there are lots of scientific evidence but this much is clear. The virus is not the Black Death. In the uk only around 33 people under 31 have died from it. The lockdown was a result of pressure from other countries and panic that the NHS could not cope, the centralised service not able to respond quickly and test and trace like decentralised Germany. There is a great interview with the historian David Starkey. The NHS became the national corona service and stopped treatment for heart and cancer and scared people from seeking treatment causing more deaths perhaps than the virus.


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can ... rom-sweden

This explains why in more detail why the imperial college model got it wrong

https://www.theblogmire.com/is-lockdown ... otherwise/
Cipp, Sweden went into social distancing, people there were being very sensible. I just don't understand why you always look for crazy sources. Like you are literally reading a blog called the "mire", would you drink a wine labelled "poison". I feel like I'm defending Imperial College when I don't really want to. It was more that your point about age of code was completely irrelevant. I mean it feels like you think if you can find sources that discredit scientific modelling, that it means to you that the virus is not dangerous; the virus doesn't care about how it is being modelled. I mean just watch the mass graves being dug man, just open your eyes. You're not edgy, different, informed or contrarian just because you post your pale fire / morosoph / shock jock / bullshit links.

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#1187

Post by albajos » May 17th, 2020, 10:01 pm

also nobody knows if people actually get immune and how long. Herd immunity is pointless if you don't have data that support that it actually works. You can't go around hoping that this virus behaves like the flu.

Immunity length are different in all viruses. Hiv is at zero as it is constantly mutating. On the other hand the virus that causes Chicken Pox gives you a lifelong immunity afterwards (usually).

Also if Covid-19 starts mutating the herd immunity would be towards the old strain of the virus, so we would still get a new wave

Scientists are very clear that they simply don't know yet, so how many lives would be fair to sacrifice until we get enough knowledge? One is one too many.

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#1188

Post by Knaldskalle » May 17th, 2020, 11:12 pm

albajos wrote:
May 17th, 2020, 10:01 pm
the virus that causes Chicken Pox gives you a lifelong immunity afterwards (usually).
Erhm... Shingles?
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#1189

Post by matthewscott8 » May 17th, 2020, 11:18 pm

albajos wrote:
May 17th, 2020, 10:01 pm
Also if Covid-19 starts mutating the herd immunity would be towards the old strain of the virus, so we would still get a new wave
oh it's mutating alright, mutating like a motherfucker, this is where the mutations are being tracked https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applicati ... ov-19-app/ there are literally thousands of mutations out there in humans now. The number of functional types/strains is a lot lower, but more than 1 for sure.

HIV is glycosylated, lots of sugars in the surface so body has problem recognising it as foreign.

hCoV2 looks like it is somewhere in between chickenpox and HIV in terms of trickiness for vaccine and lastig immunity.

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#1190

Post by Cippenham » May 18th, 2020, 2:12 am

In the uk the death rate is down, so do we really need to stay locked down?

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#1191

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 18th, 2020, 2:13 am

I love how everyone forgot about the Spanish Flu. Deaths weren't that bad at first, so they were like oh let's just open everything again it's gonna be fine... and then all hell breaks loose

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#1192

Post by Cippenham » May 18th, 2020, 2:29 am

In Canada they have no deaths under Age 19 I understand from the virus, yet schools are closed, why?

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#1193

Post by Pretentious Hipster » May 18th, 2020, 2:34 am

Because kids can be carriers of the virus

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#1194

Post by Knaldskalle » May 18th, 2020, 5:54 am

And kids have families with older people and sometimes older teachers who can contract it from their students. Schools are notorious factories of infectious disease.
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#1195

Post by weirdboy » May 18th, 2020, 5:58 am

Cippenham wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 2:29 am
In Canada they have no deaths under Age 19 I understand from the virus, yet schools are closed, why?
Almost all kids in schools have families. Those families consist of adults, including adults old enough to be in grave danger from transmission of novel coronavirus. So even if the kids don't get sick and die they still get the virus from other kids at school, bring it home with them, and infect everyone in their families. It is probably the quickest possible way of spreading the virus to everyone in the country, short of aerial discharge by a cropduster.

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#1196

Post by sebby » May 18th, 2020, 7:40 am

Two weeks after reopening, a massive spike of cases in Texas. Curious to hear from Cipp how this is the fault of Hillary and/or Obama and/or Bernie Sanders and/or AOC and/or the dirty lib mainstream media.

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#1197

Post by Armoreska » May 18th, 2020, 8:01 am

sebby wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 7:40 am
Two weeks after reopening, a massive spike of cases in Texas. Curious to hear from Cipp how this is the fault of Hillary and/or Obama and/or Bernie Sanders and/or AOC and/or the dirty lib mainstream media.
I've heard Austin is pretty liberal. Maybe it's their fault.
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#1198

Post by matthewscott8 » May 18th, 2020, 9:01 am

Cippenham wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 2:12 am
In the uk the death rate is down, so do we really need to stay locked down?
Lockdown has already been partially lifted. I expect most restrictions to be lifted by the end of the year. Pubs sporting matches and flights seem to be things to keep on ice until the end of the year. When they have regional contact tracing in place and antibody testing is working properly, almost everything else should be green lit. However things will not go back to normal, people aren't suddenly going to go from isolation to fucking a different random every night of the week on tinder, and oompahing on the beer hall table with steins aloft. There will be re-onshoring, localising of tourism, food, energy and manufacturing self sufficiency. We're going into a 1929 style Depression and a lot of stuff is going to be different just generally. If only we'd had adults in charge.

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#1199

Post by brokenface » May 18th, 2020, 9:45 am

matthewscott8 wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 9:01 am
There will be re-onshoring
The lesser-known sequel.

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#1200

Post by matthewscott8 » May 18th, 2020, 12:13 pm

brokenface wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 9:45 am
matthewscott8 wrote:
May 18th, 2020, 9:01 am
There will be re-onshoring
The lesser-known sequel.
Think that applies better to the mutated second wave that makes the first one look like a picnic that Hipster was referring to. Let's hope that it runs out of production finance!

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