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St. Gloede
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Re: US Politics thread

#16401

Post by St. Gloede » February 6th, 2020, 10:09 pm

brokenface wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 9:48 pm
Dolwphin wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 3:27 pm
brokenface wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 12:36 pm
it's like watching a rerun of Corbyn vs labour moderates. Please don't make it a Sanders cult on the left. It'll end up with an election as miserable as Corbyn's vs Johnson.

My impression is Sanders will always have an element of the party against him cause he's not a member, and it's going to be hard enough against the 'evil socialist' propaganda republicans will pump out without having a division on your own side.

Warren seems better option, she's got policies like Sanders but she'd be more tolerable for the moderate side so the party machinery would get behind her properly.
People are supporting Sanders because of his transformative social democratic policy agenda. His supporters are more than willing to harshly criticize him when they disagree. Seems like an unfair categorization to label his multi-racial working-class coalition as a "cult". Corbyn almost won the previous election and massively over-performed the polls and that seems to indicate the flaw in you implicit premises. But in the most recent election ... Labor was ambivalent and weak on the key issue: Brexit.

The institutional biases have nothing to do with membership, e.g. compare treatment of Bloomberg, but rather it is about ideology and class interests. Trump admits in leaked audio recordings that Socialism won't be so easy to beat, specifically mentions student/medical debt relieve. Furthermore, Trump correctly states that Sanders is better than him on trade. And that issue made Trump win the Electoral College by sweeping the Rust Belt.

There is big ideological and theory of change distinctions between the two campaigns. They have different demographic coalitions that highlight these distinctions. Warren have reduced her progressive credentials during this campaign; e.g. moving away from M4A. She have obtained significant funding from Billionaires & Corporate interests. She transferred that dark money from her Senate campaign. She promised, to her credit, not to take such funding during the primary, but have stated that she will during the GE. Her policy proposals that are "like" Sanders is always watered-down; they are means-tested and not universal. Her foreign policy aligns with the unacceptable Status Quo. I have not mentioned her greatest liability here, because technically It Is not about policy, but her dishonesty would be successfully exploited by Trump In a GE.
I didn't call it a cult, but it does have cultish elements in the same way Corbyn's support had. The worry I have, and you hint at it with your comments on Warren, is that it goes to where it becomes 'Bernie or nothing'. Warren may not be as good, she may be closer to status quo, but she is also infinitely, infinitely better than Trump. All of the plausible options are infinitely better than Trump. Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg. All of them.

There's no point having all the ideological purity in the world if you lose the election because you will be able to do none of it. Zero. Four more years of Trump and USA is finished as a democracy. It's nearly gone now.
This is a fabricated narrative.

More Clinton voters voted McCain over Obama, than Sanders voters voted Trump.

Sanders' slogan is "Not Me, Us", and he is trying to build a massive coalition across ideological lines.

If Warren had not stepped back on promoting Medicare for All, or played dirty with the sexism accusations, she would not have lost a lot of favour with the left and people would still have been pushing the Sanders/Warren bill.

And the "purist" left, if you want to call them that have constantly gone after Sanders, especially on foreign policy, angry man Jimmy Dore has even called him a sheep dog.

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#16402

Post by Dolwphin » February 6th, 2020, 11:06 pm

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#16403

Post by Dolwphin » February 6th, 2020, 11:12 pm

Sanders victory speech.

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#16404

Post by Pretentious Hipster » February 7th, 2020, 12:54 am

The Tom Steyer interview is gold


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#16405

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 1:01 am

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#16406

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 1:13 am

"The Associated Press “is unable to declare a winner,” it now says. We could know the winner of New Hampshire before we know the winner of Iowa. " :seething:

To determine the winner by SDE is antiquated, apparently does not even determine actual pledged delegates to the Convention anymore. But still matters, because that's how news outlets determine "the winner". According to NYT Sanders now has 54 % chance to receive a plurality of SDE. But magically the results stopped being reported at the cusp of that coming to fruition. Pete is now trying to reduce the # of SDE's allocated from satellite caucuses.
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#16407

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 1:57 am

Dolwphin wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 5:21 am
Dolwphin wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 4:14 am
Dolwphin wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 1:58 am


DNC approved official results with 92 % reporting.

Pete - 532 SDE - 26.53 %
Sanders - 513 SDE - 25.59 %
DNC approved official results with 96 % reporting.

Pete - 549 SDE - 26.43 %
Sanders - 533 SDE - 25.66 %
DNC approved official results with 97 % reporting.

Pete - 550 SDE - 26.22 %
Sanders - 547 SDE - 26.07 %
DNC approved official results with 99.94 % reporting.

Pete - 564 SDE - 26.21 %
Sanders - 562 SDE - 26.12 %
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#16408

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 2:15 am

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#16409

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 2:19 am

Pete have "won" Iowa at least 5 times at this point. RIGGED.

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#16410

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 2:44 am

Anybody know why IDP says 100 %, but NYT & C-Span says 99.94 % reported? And why The SDE numbers are nevertheless identical on both sites?
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#16411

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 2:58 am

Popular Final Vote. Maybe, maybe not 1 precinct left to report.

Sanders - 45826 Votes - 26.6 %
Pete - 43195 Votes - 25.0 %
Warren - 34771 Votes - 20.2 %
Joe - 23691 Votes - 13.7 %
Amy - 21181 Votes - 12.3 %
Yang - 1780 Votes - 1.0 %
Steyer - 413 Votes - 0.2 %
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#16412

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 3:39 am

WTF!?

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#16413

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 4:19 am

IDP claims 100 % precinct reporting. https://results.thecaucuses.org/

The SDE lead for Pete is currently exactly 1.515 SDE according to their official data.
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#16414

Post by St. Gloede » February 7th, 2020, 7:03 am

100% reporting, but "National Convention Delegates will not be published until all precincts and satellite sites have reported"

How did Buttigieg go from 2 delegates to a 1,515 delegates lead?

This is genuinely disturbing.

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#16415

Post by Cippenham » February 7th, 2020, 7:06 am

peeptoad wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 5:19 pm
St. Gloede wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 3:37 pm
Despite the fact that Sanders is mainly pushing centre to centre-right policies from Europe, or even in some cases policies that all major parties everywhere (except the Democrats and the Republicans) accept, yes, the establishment is really against him for pushing a transformative agenda that will make people's lives better.

They seem to want to stop at nothing to, well, stop people from getting healthcare, really scary.

It is especially scary as now that Warren is backing away from Medicare for All (or at least being very, very vague and non-commital) he is the only major contender who is actually putting the basic right to healthcare (and life) on the table.
Yeah, Warren backing away (Medicare for Most) is a little disheartening...
But

Here's another reason for MFA (love that anagram):
went to an ear/nose/throat guy because of a problem in my right ear I've been dealing with for the last 18 months. Had to wait 6 weeks again for this appointment after my doc sent the referral. I go to check in with reception and they refused to see me because my doc hadn't sent an "insurance referral". This is a standard thing, apparently, but I have never run across this until now. And now I have to wait another month for the rescheduled appointment and I will have to take a day off work because of the exact day and time they gave me. This is right on the heels of the optometrist committing insurance fraud and leaving me with a $200 bill for annual exam (that is supposed to be covered by my insurance). Bullshit. Fully insured people get the runaround in this country and it's 10 billion times worse for the nearly 70 million that are under-insured or lack insurance entirely.

And since Trump has been in office the # of uninsured Americans has nearly doubled from the # it was previously. Plus, there is a component of Trump's base that is suffering due to lack of healthcare and they will continue to vote for him... (my best friend's husband is one) why? why? why? This makes no logical sense to me whatsoever... ugh. My best friend and I not two weeks ago had a lengthy conversation about National Healthcare and she totally agreed it was the best thing; as soon as Trump made his State of the Union address and the statements about Socialism and healthcare and now she is diametrically opposed to it. What is going through these peoples' minds??! I love you, bff, but your brain must be nothing but an empty vessel waiting to be filled with fallacies, bent truths, and scare tactics. Ugh! again.

/rant
Well in the NHS our free service you often have to wait a long time to see a specialist . I mean a year or so sometimes. But yes it is free. As it’s free the demands on it are enormous. I am lucky as I have private healthcare at the moment through work.

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#16416

Post by Cippenham » February 7th, 2020, 7:09 am

Cippenham wrote:
February 7th, 2020, 7:06 am
peeptoad wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 5:19 pm
St. Gloede wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 3:37 pm
Despite the fact that Sanders is mainly pushing centre to centre-right policies from Europe, or even in some cases policies that all major parties everywhere (except the Democrats and the Republicans) accept, yes, the establishment is really against him for pushing a transformative agenda that will make people's lives better.

They seem to want to stop at nothing to, well, stop people from getting healthcare, really scary.

It is especially scary as now that Warren is backing away from Medicare for All (or at least being very, very vague and non-commital) he is the only major contender who is actually putting the basic right to healthcare (and life) on the table.
Yeah, Warren backing away (Medicare for Most) is a little disheartening...
But

Here's another reason for MFA (love that anagram):
went to an ear/nose/throat guy because of a problem in my right ear I've been dealing with for the last 18 months. Had to wait 6 weeks again for this appointment after my doc sent the referral. I go to check in with reception and they refused to see me because my doc hadn't sent an "insurance referral". This is a standard thing, apparently, but I have never run across this until now. And now I have to wait another month for the rescheduled appointment and I will have to take a day off work because of the exact day and time they gave me. This is right on the heels of the optometrist committing insurance fraud and leaving me with a $200 bill for annual exam (that is supposed to be covered by my insurance). Bullshit. Fully insured people get the runaround in this country and it's 10 billion times worse for the nearly 70 million that are under-insured or lack insurance entirely.

And since Trump has been in office the # of uninsured Americans has nearly doubled from the # it was previously. Plus, there is a component of Trump's base that is suffering due to lack of healthcare and they will continue to vote for him... (my best friend's husband is one) why? why? why? This makes no logical sense to me whatsoever... ugh. My best friend and I not two weeks ago had a lengthy conversation about National Healthcare and she totally agreed it was the best thing; as soon as Trump made his State of the Union address and the statements about Socialism and healthcare and now she is diametrically opposed to it. What is going through these peoples' minds??! I love you, bff, but your brain must be nothing but an empty vessel waiting to be filled with fallacies, bent truths, and scare tactics. Ugh! again.

/rant
Well in the NHS our free service you often have to wait a long time to see a specialist . But yes it is free. As it’s free the demands on it are enormous. I am lucky as I have private healthcare at the moment through work.

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#16417

Post by St. Gloede » February 7th, 2020, 7:25 am

Cipp, just so it is clear: Sanders is not proposing an NHS system, the hospitals will still be private.

This proposal is well to the right of the UK system.

It is a basic expansion of "Medicare", which is essentially a national insurance currently covering over-65s (+ a couple of treatments/illnesses). The expansion has a roll-out period (I believe 4 years) where the age of eligibility is lowered.

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#16418

Post by Cippenham » February 7th, 2020, 7:44 am

Thanks St G. But Sanders will be blocked from being the candidate, whatever it takes right?

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#16419

Post by Onderhond » February 7th, 2020, 8:14 am

Cippenham wrote:
February 7th, 2020, 7:44 am
Thanks St G. But Sanders will be blocked from being the candidate, whatever it takes right?
No.

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#16420

Post by peeptoad » February 7th, 2020, 10:27 am

Cippenham wrote:
February 7th, 2020, 7:06 am
peeptoad wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 5:19 pm
St. Gloede wrote:
February 6th, 2020, 3:37 pm
Despite the fact that Sanders is mainly pushing centre to centre-right policies from Europe, or even in some cases policies that all major parties everywhere (except the Democrats and the Republicans) accept, yes, the establishment is really against him for pushing a transformative agenda that will make people's lives better.

They seem to want to stop at nothing to, well, stop people from getting healthcare, really scary.

It is especially scary as now that Warren is backing away from Medicare for All (or at least being very, very vague and non-commital) he is the only major contender who is actually putting the basic right to healthcare (and life) on the table.
Yeah, Warren backing away (Medicare for Most) is a little disheartening...
But

Here's another reason for MFA (love that anagram):
went to an ear/nose/throat guy because of a problem in my right ear I've been dealing with for the last 18 months. Had to wait 6 weeks again for this appointment after my doc sent the referral. I go to check in with reception and they refused to see me because my doc hadn't sent an "insurance referral". This is a standard thing, apparently, but I have never run across this until now. And now I have to wait another month for the rescheduled appointment and I will have to take a day off work because of the exact day and time they gave me. This is right on the heels of the optometrist committing insurance fraud and leaving me with a $200 bill for annual exam (that is supposed to be covered by my insurance). Bullshit. Fully insured people get the runaround in this country and it's 10 billion times worse for the nearly 70 million that are under-insured or lack insurance entirely.

And since Trump has been in office the # of uninsured Americans has nearly doubled from the # it was previously. Plus, there is a component of Trump's base that is suffering due to lack of healthcare and they will continue to vote for him... (my best friend's husband is one) why? why? why? This makes no logical sense to me whatsoever... ugh. My best friend and I not two weeks ago had a lengthy conversation about National Healthcare and she totally agreed it was the best thing; as soon as Trump made his State of the Union address and the statements about Socialism and healthcare and now she is diametrically opposed to it. What is going through these peoples' minds??! I love you, bff, but your brain must be nothing but an empty vessel waiting to be filled with fallacies, bent truths, and scare tactics. Ugh! again.

/rant
Well in the NHS our free service you often have to wait a long time to see a specialist . I mean a year or so sometimes. But yes it is free. As it’s free the demands on it are enormous. I am lucky as I have private healthcare at the moment through work.
I am well familiar with NHS as half of my family is Canadian, and yes there are waits sometimes, but they haven't had to wait for anything critical and they have no complaints about the quality of care they've received that I have ever heard from them (and my aunt and uncle are in their 60s and we have discussing this on and off for years). I'll take a bit of a wait for non-urgent conditions if it means more people are covered more universally. That's a small trade-off. Plus I've been waiting to see aforementioned specialist for several months now; in the past I have waited up to 7 months for a medical appointment. And I have full coverage, private insurance through my employer. I pay (for my portion of the cost) roughly US$150/ month for medical/dental/vision and there are still beaucoup problems with it.... time for a change.

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#16421

Post by Pretentious Hipster » February 7th, 2020, 2:21 pm

Yea you won't wait if it's an urgent case. During one of my suicide attempts I got a bed and iv within minutes. Someone who was in front of me was clearly pissed and I heard her say "he looks fine to me" :lol:

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#16422

Post by Pretentious Hipster » February 7th, 2020, 2:22 pm

This became more relevant


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#16423

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 3:22 pm

8th Democratic Primary Debate tonight in New Hampshire. Pete is competitive there due to the rigging of the caucus and consequential media boost. Before that debacle Sanders looked guaranteed to win that primary.
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#16424

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 3:30 pm

IDP have been aware of reporting errors for days now. They have been reported on by NYT, CNN, CBS, @Taniel and DMR etc. They magically fails to correct the blatantly obvious mistakes, but releases "100 %" of precincts right before Pete's CNN NH Town Hall.

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#16425

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 3:33 pm

St. Gloede wrote:
February 7th, 2020, 7:03 am
How did Buttigieg go from 2 delegates to a 1,515 delegates lead?
Tbf, NYT/C-Span rounds-up, only IDP presents exact decimal SDE numbers.
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#16426

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 3:39 pm

Popular Final Vote % and SDE % differential

Pete +1.2 %
Sanders -0.5 %
Warren -1.8 %
Joe +2.1 %
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#16427

Post by Kublai Khan » February 7th, 2020, 4:04 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... aks-record
It's 18 degrees Celsius in Antarctica today.

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#16428

Post by OldAle1 » February 7th, 2020, 4:31 pm

Kublai Khan wrote:
February 7th, 2020, 4:04 pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... aks-record
It's 18 degrees Celsius in Antarctica today.


This would still be funny if roughly half of voters in contested states weren't exactly like Homer.

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#16429

Post by Pretentious Hipster » February 7th, 2020, 4:34 pm

OldAle1 wrote:
February 7th, 2020, 4:31 pm
Kublai Khan wrote:
February 7th, 2020, 4:04 pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... aks-record
It's 18 degrees Celsius in Antarctica today.


This would still be funny if roughly half of voters in contested states weren't exactly like Homer.

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#16430

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 4:49 pm

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#16431

Post by OldAle1 » February 7th, 2020, 5:01 pm

Somebody should make a count of the number of times Homer did something that in the real world would have ended up costing him his own life, other peoples' lives, the lives of everybody in Springfield, etc. Bart too though I think it would be a significantly lower figure. The fact that somebody who at least occasionally has demonstrated some level of intelligence like Cruz can say he's happy to be part of the party of Bart and Homer is appalling; then again few in his party's base are intelligent enough to comprehend The Simpsons or really any art outside of the "reality" TV world they and their president live in.


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#16433

Post by Pretentious Hipster » February 7th, 2020, 8:11 pm

Bernie is getting aggressive



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#16435

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 9:37 pm

Just to be clear, even by the stupid SDE metric, Sanders definitely won Iowa!

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#16436

Post by Dolwphin » February 7th, 2020, 9:45 pm

From the Archives:

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#16439

Post by Dolwphin » February 8th, 2020, 12:53 am

You can watch the Debate here: https://www.youtube.com/user/ABCNews It starts In about 5 minutes. :cowbow:
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#16440

Post by Pretentious Hipster » February 8th, 2020, 1:23 am

Omg why do they all hate free healthcare, even calling it forcing upon others and authoritarian. Fuck American politicians.

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