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British Politics Lounge

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May should ...

Poll ended at June 7th, 2019, 6:31 pm

remain
0
No votes
leave
10
45%
seek psychiatric help
12
55%
 
Total votes: 22

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Re: British Politics Lounge

#1961

Post by Cippenham » July 10th, 2019, 5:04 am

I do feel European. I Like European people but we are capable and would be better off running our country without their help thanks.

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#1962

Post by matthewscott8 » July 11th, 2019, 10:52 am

Cippenham wrote:
July 10th, 2019, 5:04 am
we are capable and would be better off running our country without their help thanks.
Have seen absolutely no evidence of that tbh. Since we joined the EU our growth went up and the EU regulations have been mainly additive.

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#1963

Post by Cippenham » July 11th, 2019, 11:17 am

Our growth was much higher before we were in the EU and we made our own decisions without outside regulations


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#1965

Post by PGonzalez » July 12th, 2019, 3:05 pm

Cippenham wrote:
July 11th, 2019, 11:17 am
Our growth was much higher before we were in the EU and we made our own decisions without outside regulations
You had to be bailed out by the IMF shortly after joining the EU, because you hadn't been able to deal with the 1973 oil shock and your currency was absolutely crumbling. In the Economic History courses I took, both in Portugal and in Paris, the UK was constantly referred to as the Sick Man of Europe during the 60s and 70s, and it was only able to turn itself around when Thatcher (after further setting back the UK's competitiveness during the first half of the 80s) signed the Single European Act in 1986, which allowed the UK's dying industry to get some life back.

This, for me, is the most difficult part of trying to have a discussion with you. Your idea of throwing blanket statements around without any sort of backing and being unable to address the points others raise makes me wonder what it is you gain by posting in a political discussion topic.

With that being said, I would be able to understand some of your mindset on the basis of the fear of cultural loss. I find that to be a legitimate concern, even though I don't understand what the hell it has to do with the EU (as opposed to the import of American culture en masse). The security argument is also an important one, though the discussion often boils down to ill disguised xenophobia, instead of addressing the relevant topic of territory planning following a large influx of people in large cities. But I hope you have the intellectual honesty of assuming you are giving preference to these two topics over economic development; pretending that Brexit is some sort of Eden where every problem will get taken care of is dishonest, and I believe you know that.

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#1966

Post by Cippenham » July 12th, 2019, 7:18 pm

The Uk growth rate has been slow since 1972 than it was from 1945 to 1972 and most of the growth in the 80s was home grown not to do with the EU. Our balance of payments were also hit by payments to the EU. A lot our manufacturing was lost by EU grants to other parts of Europe. We have had practically no gain from being in the EU.

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/03/26 ... of-the-eu/

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#1967

Post by PGonzalez » July 12th, 2019, 10:05 pm

Thank you, I'm sure that visiting that personal webpage and copying two or three sentences must have taken a lot of effort.
In any case, on the off chance that you'll actually read and consider the input, I'll just leave this here.
The Uk growth rate has been slow since 1972 than it was from 1945 to 1972.
Oh wow, it's almost as if you are taking a postwar boom period, cutting off the year before a major oil shock that affected every single developed economy, and then comparing it with a period that's nearly twice as long and where the world economy goes through two major oil shocks and the first great global crisis of the 21st century. That doesn't seem like manipulating data to fit a narrative at all. But in case you actually want to go through the stats, please see (1). The UK only had red quarters twice since signing the SEA: 4+1 periods after the oil shock of 1990, and 5+2 during the major crisis of 2008. Their growth trajectory during this 30 year period was completely in line with what was expected, but their period in the 60s and 70s was not, so I'd say that getting a stable economy was quite a good result from signing into the common market.
And most of the growth in the 80s was home grown not to do with the EU.
I don't know what it is you mean by "home grown", nor do I have any idea of how you could possibly go about measuring what part of growth comes from "inside" and what part comes from "outside". That's as strange a separation as I have ever seen.
Our balance of payments were also hit by payments to the EU. A lot our manufacturing was lost by EU grants to other parts of Europe.
Yes, of course your payment balance was affected when you started paying contributions, but I fail to see how an expense is equivalent to a loss when you're creating a cohesive economic area that creates a stable trade area for your exports.
Regarding manufacturing, I'm going to need data on that, as I wasn't able to find information on the amount of non-qualified manufacturing jobs you are losing to other European countries. Taking into account that most EU countries are shifting away from that, and that economically speaking that is a good thing, I can't imagine there were a lot compared to countries like for example India, with whom you have strong bilateral trade agreements. And I don't know what it is you mean by "lost by EU grants", but I suppose that if one of your concerns regarding the EU is the condition of the manufacturing sector, then you should probably listen to the manufacturing sector (2)
We have had practically no gain from being in the EU.
Even if this blanket statement of yours was true, and while it most certainly isn't, I fail to see how that could be relevant. You should be concerned with how this would affect your country going forward, and should the UK leave, the trade effects will most likely be negative (see (3)[working paper] and (4)[final version]), and this is without taking into account non-trade effects (like the uncertainty effect that this drawn out process has led to). Make UK, the former EFF, has repeatedly warned that investment in manufacture has been hampered by this (5).

If you wish to reply and continue this discussion with actual data backing up your claims, I'll be more than glad to. But if a personal website from an MP whose best attempt at naming a source is "An EU study has showed", I believe I'll just stop here.

(1) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... s/ihyq/qna
(2) https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ufacturers
(3) https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419 ... 138858.pdf
(4) https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy ... 51/4459728
(5) https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -to-brexit

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#1968

Post by xianjiro » July 13th, 2019, 1:51 am

PGonzalez wrote:
July 12th, 2019, 10:05 pm
Thank you, I'm sure that visiting that personal webpage and copying two or three sentences must have taken a lot of effort.
In any case, on the off chance that you'll actually read and consider the input, I'll just leave this here.
SpoilerShow
The Uk growth rate has been slow since 1972 than it was from 1945 to 1972.
Oh wow, it's almost as if you are taking a postwar boom period, cutting off the year before a major oil shock that affected every single developed economy, and then comparing it with a period that's nearly twice as long and where the world economy goes through two major oil shocks and the first great global crisis of the 21st century. That doesn't seem like manipulating data to fit a narrative at all. But in case you actually want to go through the stats, please see (1). The UK only had red quarters twice since signing the SEA: 4+1 periods after the oil shock of 1990, and 5+2 during the major crisis of 2008. Their growth trajectory during this 30 year period was completely in line with what was expected, but their period in the 60s and 70s was not, so I'd say that getting a stable economy was quite a good result from signing into the common market.
And most of the growth in the 80s was home grown not to do with the EU.
I don't know what it is you mean by "home grown", nor do I have any idea of how you could possibly go about measuring what part of growth comes from "inside" and what part comes from "outside". That's as strange a separation as I have ever seen.
Our balance of payments were also hit by payments to the EU. A lot our manufacturing was lost by EU grants to other parts of Europe.
Yes, of course your payment balance was affected when you started paying contributions, but I fail to see how an expense is equivalent to a loss when you're creating a cohesive economic area that creates a stable trade area for your exports.
Regarding manufacturing, I'm going to need data on that, as I wasn't able to find information on the amount of non-qualified manufacturing jobs you are losing to other European countries. Taking into account that most EU countries are shifting away from that, and that economically speaking that is a good thing, I can't imagine there were a lot compared to countries like for example India, with whom you have strong bilateral trade agreements. And I don't know what it is you mean by "lost by EU grants", but I suppose that if one of your concerns regarding the EU is the condition of the manufacturing sector, then you should probably listen to the manufacturing sector (2)
We have had practically no gain from being in the EU.
Even if this blanket statement of yours was true, and while it most certainly isn't, I fail to see how that could be relevant. You should be concerned with how this would affect your country going forward, and should the UK leave, the trade effects will most likely be negative (see (3)[working paper] and (4)[final version]), and this is without taking into account non-trade effects (like the uncertainty effect that this drawn out process has led to). Make UK, the former EFF, has repeatedly warned that investment in manufacture has been hampered by this (5).

If you wish to reply and continue this discussion with actual data backing up your claims, I'll be more than glad to. But if a personal website from an MP whose best attempt at naming a source is "An EU study has showed", I believe I'll just stop here.

(1) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... s/ihyq/qna
(2) https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ufacturers
(3) https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419 ... 138858.pdf
(4) https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy ... 51/4459728
(5) https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -to-brexit
:poshclap: thanks for the interesting insight into Brexit and for adding to the conversation :thumbsup:

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#1969

Post by matthewscott8 » July 13th, 2019, 6:31 pm

Cippenham wrote:
July 11th, 2019, 11:17 am
Our growth was much higher before we were in the EU and we made our own decisions without outside regulations
First you say you are a European and then when Europe does something you consider that "outside". Make up your mind.

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#1970

Post by Cippenham » July 15th, 2019, 4:57 am

I am a European but don’t want to be in the EU.

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#1971

Post by Cippenham » July 15th, 2019, 4:59 am

I would trust John Redwood against other sources any time as he likely to get it right, for example his economic forecasts are a lot more accurate than the Bank of England who are still following the wrong policies in his view

https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/07/1 ... in-the-uk/

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#1972

Post by morrison-dylan-fan » July 23rd, 2019, 11:20 am

The winner of Tory Musical Chairs:


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#1973

Post by Onderhond » July 23rd, 2019, 11:22 am

Without consent, the UK is about to get a BJ
tehe


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#1975

Post by Cippenham » July 23rd, 2019, 4:29 pm

With consent you do not understand our politics as we vote at general election for MP and a party and its ideas not PM and ruling party can change their leader any time. If 2/3 of parliament agree they can have early election otherwise wait 5 years from last election for another. In that time all parties can change leader if they wish.

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#1976

Post by Cippenham » July 23rd, 2019, 4:30 pm

Is Boris what you get if Trump went to Eton and was in the liberal left?

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#1977

Post by Cippenham » July 23rd, 2019, 4:31 pm

That business insider is selective quotes as Boris wants illegal immigrants to have amnesty for example

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#1978

Post by Cippenham » July 23rd, 2019, 4:32 pm

Boris real name is Al and he has Turkish and Russian ancestry and was born in New York

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#1979

Post by matthewscott8 » July 23rd, 2019, 11:20 pm

Cippenham wrote:
July 23rd, 2019, 4:32 pm
Boris real name is Al and he has Turkish and Russian ancestry and was born in New York
Fucking save me. You may as well point out the queen's relationship with the various royal families of Europe. This guy is blatantly UK establishment through and through, if you deny this you are a liar. And doubtless you will have to answer for these lies in another life.

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#1980

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 4:26 am

Matthew I agree with you, that he is establishment although what I said was correct. 😀 But he has adopted some populist policies and is toast if Brexit not achieved, but I think will be a soft one if it is.

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#1981

Post by matthewscott8 » July 24th, 2019, 3:10 pm

Cippenham wrote:
July 24th, 2019, 4:26 am
Matthew I agree with you, that he is establishment although what I said was correct. 😀 But he has adopted some populist policies and is toast if Brexit not achieved, but I think will be a soft one if it is.
There is no mechanism to get soft Brexit by October.

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#1982

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 3:15 pm

I would prefer what they call no deal certainly but I believe there will be a deal but as long as we leave I would accept either way

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#1983

Post by brokenface » July 24th, 2019, 5:47 pm

New cabinet is going to be a who's-who of slimeballs and scumbags. Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson. FFS. Dominic Fucking Cummings as his senior advisor. We need an election asap.

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#1984

Post by flaiky » July 24th, 2019, 6:10 pm

Yep, our new Home Secretary believed in the death penalty until 3 years ago. Hahahha.. :pinch:
Let the ashes fly
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#1985

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 7:07 pm

But that has no chance of becoming law so it does not matter. But no one can complain this is not a diverse cabinet.

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#1986

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 7:09 pm

brokenface wrote:
July 24th, 2019, 5:47 pm
New cabinet is going to be a who's-who of slimeballs and scumbags. Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson. FFS. Dominic Fucking Cummings as his senior advisor. We need an election asap.
I think they are all great and we need to avoid election until Brexit done or we might end up with Nigel Farage who though I would prefer sine of you would not

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#1987

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 8:23 pm

But the Cabinet has remainers Sharma Javid Rudd Hancock and Perry and snakes in the grass Gove and Rudd but no room for genuine leavers Francois, Redwood, IDS, Rees-Mogg and McVey so far. So it’s not pro Brexit enough. Boris in no way wants no deal, thinks he will get a new deal. Is he in cloud cuckoo land? Edit, yet another Remainer, Julian Smith appointed, its not looking good, come on Nigel.
Last edited by Cippenham on July 24th, 2019, 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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#1988

Post by brokenface » July 24th, 2019, 8:36 pm

Cippenham wrote:
July 24th, 2019, 8:23 pm
But the Cabinet has remainers Javid Rudd Hancock and Perry and snakes in the grass Gove and Rudd but no room for genuine leavers Francois, Redwood, IDS, Rees-Mogg and McVey so far. So it’s not pro Brexit enough. Boris in no way wants no deal, thinks he will get a new deal. Is he in cloud cuckoo land?
You do realise Johnson will let you down, don't you? He's spent his whole career telling people whatever he thinks they want to hear to get where he wants to go. You Brexit Kool-Aiders are just his latest mark.

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#1989

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 8:42 pm

Yes broken you are correct, half the cabinet are remainers now so I am of course backing Nigel Farage. I agree with broken, it’s unusual.

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#1990

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 8:43 pm

Many Gemini’s are like that broken, I have found also. By the way Trump is also a Gemini.

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#1991

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 8:53 pm

Rees Mogg may get leader of the House, he is at no 10 as are McVey and Joe Johnson, brother of Boris, among others.

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#1992

Post by brokenface » July 24th, 2019, 9:28 pm

Cippenham wrote:
July 24th, 2019, 8:53 pm
Joe Johnson, brother of Boris, among others.
Brother of Boris, uncle of many (how many, nobody knows)

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#1993

Post by Cippenham » July 24th, 2019, 10:07 pm

Jo Johnson appointment confirmed Minister of State Business but promotion although not in cabinet will attend cabinet. Rees Mogg leader of the House, Mcvey housing minister confirmed

How many, who knows. It’s all about charisma looking good on tv, not substance. Gladstone would turn over in his grave.

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#1994

Post by matthewscott8 » July 25th, 2019, 8:22 am

His previous boss at the Telegraph:
there is room for debate about whether he is a scoundrel or mere rogue, but not much about his moral bankruptcy

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#1995

Post by Cippenham » July 25th, 2019, 4:01 pm

He is a great speaker at least. Of his new cabinet only 2 voted against the WA on al 3 votes and 3 twice and14 voted Remain including the Chief Whip. True Brexiteers like Rees Mogg and McVey attend cabinet but are not voting members, is that deliberate? This is not so strong a leave cabinet as you may think. Boris only wants to leave so he can stay PM and does not actually care either way, probably would really like to remain. Other Brexiteers kept out and lightweight remainers including Javid given big jobs.

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#1996

Post by Cippenham » July 25th, 2019, 4:08 pm

Would you prefer someone morally sound and holy? I agree . Rees-Mogg is morally sound but no doubt some people will disagree. Corbyn of course has a worse record than Boris, morally speaking but no one mentions this.

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#1997

Post by Cippenham » July 25th, 2019, 7:29 pm

So the EU think Boris won’t get no deal and will be forced into an election if he tries but if they are wrong they get no deal, they are prepared to take that risk apparently. I hope we can have the guts to go through with no deal if they are that stupid. I also think he would win any election, then they would have to agree a new deal. But I for one hope they stick to their guns as does Boris and we can just leave and pay them nothing.

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#1998

Post by Cippenham » August 6th, 2019, 8:44 pm

https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-conten ... eement.pdf

As Lord Trimble points out the backstop would destroy the Good Friday agreement in Ireland therefore there is no way our parliament can pass the withdrawal agreement with it. As the EU refuse to negotiate we are correct to leave with no deal. A deal of sorts is possible but not unless the EU understands we are going to leave no matter what so it’s up to them. It’s too late for parliament to stop no deal as Boris can refuse to resign even if defeated in parliament and have a General Election after we leave. So it’s up to the EU but we cannot wreck the Good Friday agreement by agreeing to the deal surrendered by Mrs May

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#1999

Post by brokenface » August 6th, 2019, 8:57 pm

Leaving with no deal also destroys the Good Friday agreement.

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#2000

Post by Cippenham » August 6th, 2019, 9:06 pm

That is catch 22 if you are right so therefore we need a new deal. But not sure if that’s right but it may be but as we this side are not erecting a border and we are allowing rule by consent still in Northern Ireland. It’s up to the Eu and the Republic and so far they choose to let us leave with no deal as for some crazy reason they don’t believe we will do it. Do you believe we will do it, i am not sure as I think some so called temporary deal will be stitched up like traditional fudge.

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