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Awards Season 2018

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Good_Will_Harding
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Re: Awards Season 2018

#161

Post by Good_Will_Harding » January 21st, 2019, 7:29 pm

Final Oscar predictions. Most of these seem to have three or four spots locked up, with a few possible alternates in the mix.

Best Picture

A Star is Born
BlackKklansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
The Favourite
Vice

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Adam McKay, Vice

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Vice

Best Actress

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor

Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKlansman
Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Thomasin Mackenzie, Leave No Trace
Amy Adams, Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Star is Born
BlackKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Vice

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Language Film

Burning
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters

Best Original Score

Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song

"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"Revelation - Boy Erased
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallows" - A Star is Born

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Yeah, those are the only categories I really feel like looking into right now. Most of the other techs will most likely just be split up between what ends up being the Best Picture nominees, as always happens.

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#162

Post by brokenface » January 21st, 2019, 8:38 pm

Here's what I've ended up with on Goldderby, roughly ranked in my guess of likelihood. Mostly favourites, the odd mild punt:

Best Picture (last two might miss out for numbers)
Roma
Green Book
A Star is Born
The Favourite
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
(Vice)
(Mary Poppins Returns)

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron
Spike Lee
Yorgos Lanthimos
Bradley Cooper
Ryan Coogler

Best Actor
Rami Malek
Christian Bale
Viggo Mortensen
Bradley Cooper
Ethan Hawke

Best Actress
Lady Gaga
Glenn Close
Emily Blunt
Olivia Colman
Yolitza Aparicio

Best Supp Actor
Mahershala Ali
Richard E Grant
Sam Elliott
Sam Rockwell
Adam Driver

Best Supp Actress
Regina King
Rachel Weisz
Amy Adams
Emma Stone
Michelle Yeoh

Orig Screenplay
The Favourite
Roma
Eighth Grade
Green Book
First Reformed

Adap Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Leave No Trace

Cinematography
Roma
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
Cold War

Foreign Language
Roma
Cold War
Shoplifters
Burning
The Guilty

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#163

Post by sol » January 22nd, 2019, 1:35 am

Nathan Treadway wrote:
January 21st, 2019, 6:12 pm
I'm curious, how do you see A Quiet Place making the cut? I can see First Man and your two alternates getting the nom before that one. Although First Man got absolutely no traction this awards season, for whatever reason.
A Quiet Place has received a lot of Guild love this awards seasons, and of course there is a strong correlation between Guild and Academy members. With a PGA, WGA and surprise SAG nod behind it, I would be kind of surprised if A Quiet Place did not make the Best Picture cut - though working out which film it would displace if there are only 8 or 9 nominations is not something that I would like to bet money on.
OldAle1 wrote:
January 21st, 2019, 6:19 pm
I also really don't see Debra Granik getting a director nod over Spike Lee; this really did not end up being the year of the woman, at least not when it comes to directors getting major awards.
True, but the backlash over that fact has been crazy. Plus, the producers of both Leave No Trace and You Were Never Really Here have been out on the campaign trail (advertising and all). I wouldn't be too surprised if Lynne Ramsey made the cut either. As for Spike Lee being left off, this is starting to feel like a repeat of 1989/90. The buzz for his film has long since died down and if there's still any talk about finally giving the BD award to black director, I think Blank Panther has much more traction at the moment. But yeah, this is a hard category to predict. While the DGA and GGs matched in their nominees, only Cuaron and McKay really feel safe to me at the moment. Possibly Farrelly due to the momentum for his film (and lack of momentum for other films) but I feel like somebody "obvious" is going to get left off, and if not Spike Lee, then maybe Bradley Cooper...
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#164

Post by sebby » January 22nd, 2019, 2:31 am

Would love to see Granik and Ramsey get the nod over spike.

also, joaquin had a really good acting year and hasn't gotten any recognition as far as i can tell. did he grope someone while i was looking away or something?

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#165

Post by Knaldskalle » January 22nd, 2019, 3:21 am

blueboybob wrote:
January 21st, 2019, 2:54 pm
I wish the Razzies were an official list. Then again I'm probably one of the few who has seen all of them (ON PURPOSE!)
Now there's a thought.... :)
Personal film goals for 2019.
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#166

Post by blueboybob » January 22nd, 2019, 5:26 pm


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#167

Post by dirty_score » January 22nd, 2019, 7:27 pm

That's the seventh consecutive nomination for a TIFF winner! But I guess we needed another Cannes list :shrug:

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#168

Post by OldAle1 » January 22nd, 2019, 8:30 pm

Those who want to see Roma on the big screen but live in the land of AMC and Regal cinemas are SOL:

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/01/amc-r ... 202037175/

I'm hoping the Marcus Cinema chain has a different attitude and picks it up, would love to be able to see it a second time on a big screen.

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#169

Post by albajos » January 22nd, 2019, 8:37 pm

We have one mainstream cinema that shows all nominated movies. All 7 normal has premiered by then, It's interesting to see if they will show Roma as well.

It has only gone a month in an arthouse cinema (it's gone now), and a week in the Cinematheque so far, so we do have some copies somewhere.

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#170

Post by brokenface » January 22nd, 2019, 10:25 pm

Crazy that Paul Schrader never got nominated before. Just assumed he would've done for Taxi Driver and/or Raging Bull, or at least something along the way.

Biggest surprises were probably Pawel Pawlikowski getting in as director, Buster Scruggs for Adapted Screenplay and Never Look Away for Cinematography (although I now see the cinematographer for that is Caleb Deschanel, a 5-time previous nominee, so not as surprising as it looked on face of it)

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#171

Post by brokenface » January 22nd, 2019, 10:30 pm

albajos wrote:
January 22nd, 2019, 8:37 pm
We have one mainstream cinema that shows all nominated movies. All 7 normal has premiered by then, It's interesting to see if they will show Roma as well.

It has only gone a month in an arthouse cinema (it's gone now), and a week in the Cinematheque so far, so we do have some copies somewhere.
Last couple of years I think I saw all the BP nominees at cinema. won't this year 'cause I watched Roma on Netflix and didn't get round to Star is Born. Have caught Black Panther, Blackkklansman, Favourite and Bohemian Rhapsody. Green Book and Vice not out yet.

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#172

Post by outdoorcats » January 23rd, 2019, 12:12 am

The almost complete shut-out of If Beale Street Could Talk, a genuine masterpiece, is pretty outrageous IMO. But I am impressed by the number of foreign language nominees not just in the Foreign Language Film category (Cold War for Best Director, Roma for Actress/Supporting Actress, Never Look Away for Cinematography, Border for Best Makeup). It seems like the recent diversifying of the AMPAS has, among other unexpected results, opened a lot of categories up to subtitled films, at least a little (which is a lot more than ever before).

Although I haven't seen the movie yet, from what I've read on the boards people aren't going to be happy about First Man not getting a score nomination either...

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#173

Post by funkybusiness » January 23rd, 2019, 12:25 am

Burning was not nominated. Never Look Away was (and I didn't know it existed until today). Never Look Away is distributed by Disney. make of that what you will.

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#174

Post by Ivan0716 » January 23rd, 2019, 12:48 am

Marina de Tavira is probably the most surprising inclusion for me(#OscarSoMexican when?), don't really remember much about her performance but hey, as long as it's not a nomination for Best Female Driver. I never would have expected Cold War to be nominated for anything other than Foreign Language, but now that it did I can't help being greedy and wonder if they couldn't have spared a nom for Joanna Kulig as well.

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#175

Post by albajos » January 23rd, 2019, 1:02 am

Ida also got for cinematography and foreign language. They are already on discovered trails with double nom for Cold War

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#176

Post by outdoorcats » January 23rd, 2019, 3:46 am

Yeah, Burning is a surprising omission, but I have been hearing some great things about Never Look Away, which is from the same director as another Oscar favorite, The Lives of Others (which also snuck out of nowhere in 2006 when Pan's Labyrinth was widely considered to be the front runner).

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#177

Post by cinewest » January 23rd, 2019, 7:06 am

Very typical nominations by the Oscar committee:

#1 most typical thing: As usual, the vast majority of Best Picture nominees (6 out of 8 this year) are essentially biographies, which speaks volumes about what Hollywood and American audiences consider Oscar worthy subject matter and styling for films. Where did all creativity and imagination go?
Well, the other two nominees: Black Panther (another film adaptation of a marvel comic book superhero), and Star Is Born (another remake of a film by that same name) tell plenty about Hollywood's idea of what creative and imaginative cinema are.

#1 most interesting thing, even though it became very predictable months ago: The film Roma (made in Spanish and a Native Mexican language) received more nominations than any other movie, and continues to look like the favorite to win Best Picture unless a crowd favorite like Green Book sneaks through.

#2 most interesting thing: Three of the five nominees for best cinematography are foreign language films, and 3 of the 5 nominees for best director are not American born.

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#178

Post by brokenface » January 23rd, 2019, 7:20 am

I wouldn't call The Favourite, Roma or Blackkklansman 'essentially biographies'. All have biographical/autobiographical elements, but that's not their main feature.

Not to deny Oscars loves the biography, especially when it comes to the acting awards

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#179

Post by cinewest » January 23rd, 2019, 9:23 am

brokenface wrote:
January 23rd, 2019, 7:20 am
I wouldn't call The Favourite, Roma or Blackkklansman 'essentially biographies'. All have biographical/autobiographical elements, but that's not their main feature.

Not to deny Oscars loves the biography, especially when it comes to the acting awards
Good point. The 3 you mention take a much more creative approach to working with biographical / historical material than most Hollywood films in this genre do.

That said, I am still tired of seeing the same parameters surround Oscar bait year in and year out, and it is clearly a cultural phenomenon, albeit a very tiresome one for me.

Three cheers for Bio Pics with historical context and tired messages, one of which is often a tip of the hat to English nobility, and at least a few of which are adaptations of bestselling books, with a crowd pleasing, relatively low budget indie thrown in for good measure. Granted, this "program" now has to include something "African American," as well as something "female" in nature, and every year there is something that catches a politically or culturally correct wave at just the right moment, which makes the entire show very predictable if not underwhelming.

Don't get me wrong, I admire Roma quite a bit and imagine the others have some good things going for them that have to do with the merits of cinema. As I said, I was pleasantly surprised by the nominations for Best director, if only because there is something fresh going on there that isn't pre-determined by the forces that be.

Those 2018 films I am most looking forward to seeing:
La Flor
An Elephant Sitting Still
Cold War
High Life
Climax
Birds Of Passage
Capernaum
Sunset
Shoplifters

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#180

Post by Fergenaprido » January 29th, 2019, 6:11 pm

Today is Christian Bale's and Olivia Colman's birthday (January 30). They're both 44 today. They also both have a decent chance at winning an Oscar, and if they both manage to do so it will be the first time since Matthew McConaughey and Cate Blanchett won that the best actor and best actress winners are the same age (usually actress is much younger than actor). Incidentally McConaughey and Blanchett were also both 44 when they won. The only other occurence I'm aware of (thanks to someone else's research) is Ray Milland and Joan Crawford in 1946 (age 39).

Source: http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2014/ ... eople.html (main post and comments)

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#181

Post by Ivan0716 » February 10th, 2019, 9:14 pm

Oops, forgot the BAFTA ceremony was tonight. No huge surprises, I don't think Best Film has been announced yet, but it's probably going to The Favourite.

EDIT: It's out, Roma got it.

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#182

Post by Ivan0716 » February 10th, 2019, 9:22 pm

Ivan0716 wrote:
January 9th, 2019, 12:14 pm
BAFTA Winners
Best film
Roma

Outstanding British film
The Favourite

Leading actor
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

Leading actress
Olivia Colman - The Favourite

Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Supporting actress
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Director
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma

EE Rising Star Award (voted for by the public)
Letitia Wright

Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer
Beast - Michael Pearce (writer/director), Lauren Dark (producer)

Film not in the English language
Roma

Documentary
Free Solo

Animated film
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

Original screenplay
The Favourite

Adapted screenplay
BlacKkKlansman

Original music
A Star Is Born

Cinematography
Roma

Costume design
The Favourite

Editing
Vice

Production design
The Favourite

Make-up and hair
The Favourite

Sound
Bohemian Rhapsody

Special visual effects
Black Panther

British short film
73 Cows

British short animation
Roughhouse

Outstanding contribution to British cinema
Stephen Woolley and Elizabeth Karlsen

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#183

Post by Ivan0716 » February 10th, 2019, 9:31 pm

Lol Regina King got snubbed and still went there to present an award, what a sport.

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#184

Post by albajos » February 10th, 2019, 9:51 pm

She needs to be seen before the Oscars. Their voting starts on tuesday.
So this simply an award strategy.

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#185

Post by OldAle1 » February 12th, 2019, 3:37 pm

So they scrapped that "most popular" film idea, but they're still cutting several awards from the show broadcast, and now we have the details

http://www.startribune.com/film-academy ... 505688112/

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#186

Post by mightysparks » February 12th, 2019, 3:42 pm

I can’t believe fecking ‘fuck society’ Malek is winning so many awards. His performance was not good :shrug:
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#187

Post by albajos » February 12th, 2019, 3:46 pm

Well, in Norway they even gave away the Amanda for director off-air...

It's really not hard to fit them all in. They usually go 2 awards - entertainment. So it would be easy to expand those to 3 in some segments with the same presenters.

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#188

Post by RedHawk10 » February 12th, 2019, 8:01 pm

OldAle1 wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 3:37 pm
So they scrapped that "most popular" film idea, but they're still cutting several awards from the show broadcast, and now we have the details

http://www.startribune.com/film-academy ... 505688112/
Given how many times the Academy have said they're going to do something stupid like this in the last year before going back on it (Best Popular Film, last year's acting winners not returning, etc.), hopefully they crumble under the pressure of the backlash again and change their minds about this. Just about every decision they've made in an attempt to get more viewers has backfired tremendously on them. It's been funny to watch.

With all that said, what the hell is wrong with these people cutting cinematography and editing of all things anyway? Those are two of the most important aspects of a film!

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#189

Post by OldAle1 » February 12th, 2019, 8:11 pm

Presumably they think that most of the viewers are folks who know and care absolutely nothing at all about the technical aspects of film, and so they won't even miss these awards. I guess we should be thankful they didn't cut writers or directors - what the hell do those people do, and why aren't they as attractive as Jennifer Lawrence or Ryan Reynolds?

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#190

Post by dirty_score » February 12th, 2019, 8:59 pm

even though it's disrespectful for any of the nominees why didn't they choose 'lesser' categories such as sound editing or sound mixing or even the short films (fiction/documentary/animation) is beyond me. it's still a bad idea to cut some awards. everybody deserves their 90'seconds of spotlight.

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#191

Post by albajos » February 12th, 2019, 10:54 pm

They will cut different every year. So these 4 will be seen next year.

They already have one extra show with scientific andvtechnical achievements, so stuff like sound mixing and visual effects could have been part of that already. Maybe we should be happy they show as many as they do.

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#192

Post by brokenface » February 12th, 2019, 11:42 pm

Saw Beale Street tonight, really good, on a par with Roma and The Favourite and better than any of the others I've seen in this year's crop, so it really should've done better. It's a bit like Carol a few years ago, both the tone of the film and the way it fared in the Oscar race

Feel like some of the other actors in Beale St should've been in the mix too, Kiki Layne for sure. Also Bryan Tyree Henry role was probably too small but made big impression.

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#193

Post by sebby » February 12th, 2019, 11:43 pm

Well there are some that will never be cut. Cinematography should be among them, but who knows, maybe they polled a bunch of randos and it was one of the cats people cared least about.

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#194

Post by sebby » February 12th, 2019, 11:46 pm

brokenface wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 11:42 pm
Saw Beale Street tonight, really good, on a par with Roma and The Favourite and better than any of the others I've seen in this year's crop, so it really should've done better. It's a bit like Carol a few years ago, both the tone of the film and the way it fared in the Oscar race

Feel like some of the other actors in Beale St should've been in the mix too, Kiki Layne for sure. Also Bryan Tyree Henry role was probably too small but made big impression.
Beale St's underperformance is really a headscratcher. It's a better film than moonlight, a previous oscar darling, and a significantly better film that almost everything else in a weak BP field.

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#195

Post by Good_Will_Harding » February 13th, 2019, 12:31 am

I hate the new Oscars decision to cut Editing, Cinematography, Makeup, and Live Action Short as much as the next guy. But two aspects of them have me a bit curious...

1. It occurs to me that the four categories they're cutting also happen to be the three lowest grossing tech categories this year, when averaging out the total grosses of the five nominees, so that's pretty telling.

2. Total Oscar nominations per category for all Disney produced films, outside of the Top 8:

Visual Effects - 3
Production Design - 2
Costume Design - 2
Score - 2
Song - 2
Sound Mixing - 1
Sound Editing - 1
Animated Short - 1
Documentary Short - 0
---
Editing - 0
Cinematography - 0
Makeup - 0
Live Action Short - 0

Soooo yeah, now I'm inclinded to think that the choice to cut there four specific categories isn't as "random" as we've been led to believe... <_<

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#196

Post by OldAle1 » February 13th, 2019, 12:52 am

Wow.

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#197

Post by Fergenaprido » February 13th, 2019, 1:26 am

In the article that Old Ale posted, it mentions that the executive committees of 6 different branches volunteered to be cut, and they chose 4 of those 6.

"Film academy president John Bailey said in a note to members that the executive committees of six branches opted-in to this "slightly edited timeframe" and the board of governors chose four for this year."

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#198

Post by Nathan Treadway » February 13th, 2019, 2:54 am

Why can't they just cut the stupid pre-show crap instead of messing with the actual awards show?

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#199

Post by Ivan0716 » February 14th, 2019, 12:26 am

Cutting Best Cinematography isn't a bad thing really. No one wants to see Cuaron make 5 speeches in one night, least of all Cuaron himself.

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#200

Post by albajos » February 14th, 2019, 12:39 am

He get the awards and make speeches. They will just not be broadcasted as it will happen in commercial breaks.

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